Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK)</a> over the last couple of days has dragged <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technolog" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH)</a> higher as the arbs trade the AH spread.</li>
<li>The Fast Entry into a global index could keep <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a> supported over the next few trading days, but reality will take hold pretty soon.</li>
<li>Short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a> / long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technolog" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">CATL (300750 CH)</a> offers great risk/reward, while an outright <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a> short offers higher return albeit at a much higher level of risk.</li>
</ul>


The buying in Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK) over the last couple of days has dragged Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) higher as the arbs trade the AH spread.
The Fast Entry into a global index could keep CATL (3750 HK) supported over the next few trading days, but reality will take hold pretty soon.
Short CATL (3750 HK) / long CATL (300750 CH) offers great risk/reward, while an outright CATL (3750 HK) short offers higher return albeit at a much higher level of risk.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technolog" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-pharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44224:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK)</a> performance has paved the way for a slew of A/H listings to follow.</li>
<li>On the placements front, there was a large selldown in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hd-hyundai-marine-solution-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41002:1" rel="noopener">HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS)</a> and a lockup release for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pony-ai-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44035:1" rel="noopener">Pony AI (PONY US)</a> is coming up.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) and Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) performance has paved the way for a slew of A/H listings to follow.
On the placements front, there was a large selldown in HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS) and a lockup release for Pony AI (PONY US) is coming up.


ECM Weekly (26 May 2025) - CATL, Hengrui, Eastroc, Haitian, Schloss, Aegis, Hyundai Marine, Pony

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK)</a></strong> (CATL H), a global leader in providing battery solutions, was listed on the 20th May at <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0516/2025051601205.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$263/share</a>. <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0512/2025051200005.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Here</a> is the prospectus.</li>
<li>Via the H-share listing, CATL raised ~US$5.2bn. Shares have since gained ~26% and trade at HK$330/share, as I type.</li>
<li>It is worth noting the HKEx issued a high concentration warning in CATL's H shares the day before shares were listed.</li>
</ul>



Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK) (CATL H), a global leader in providing battery solutions, was listed on the 20th May at $263/share. Here is the prospectus.
Via the H-share listing, CATL raised ~US$5.2bn. Shares have since gained ~26% and trade at HK$330/share, as I type.
It is worth noting the HKEx issued a high concentration warning in CATL's H shares the day before shares were listed.


US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a> is forecasted to fail the fast-entry float cap threshold of both global indices due to unlisted shares, locked cornerstone investors and domestic offering.</li>
<li>Stock price needs to rise by ~30% on the first trading day to achieve fast-entry to one global index. Offer price is 263HKD and the adjustment option has been exercised.</li>
<li>The security is expected to be added to Global Standard in August 2025 and to Global All-World in December 2025, with an elevated free float following the 6-month cornerstone lock-up.</li>
</ul>



CATL (3750 HK) is forecasted to fail the fast-entry float cap threshold of both global indices due to unlisted shares, locked cornerstone investors and domestic offering.
Stock price needs to rise by ~30% on the first trading day to achieve fast-entry to one global index. Offer price is 263HKD and the adjustment option has been exercised.
The security is expected to be added to Global Standard in August 2025 and to Global All-World in December 2025, with an elevated free float following the 6-month cornerstone lock-up.


CATL (3750 HK): Fast-Entry to Global Indices Unlikely Despite $150B Market Cap

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a> is trading at a 6.9% premium to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technolog" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH)</a> - if that is due to expectations of Fast Entry, that premium could drop.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a> has not announced the overallotment option as exercised and that puts Fast Entry at risk. An announcement prior to the close tomorrow could lead to Fast Entry.</li>
<li>The earliest inclusion could be at the close on 30 May while the other global index inclusion looks likely in December.</li>
</ul>



CATL (3750 HK) is trading at a 6.9% premium to Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) - if that is due to expectations of Fast Entry, that premium could drop.

CATL (3750 HK) has not announced the overallotment option as exercised and that puts Fast Entry at risk. An announcement prior to the close tomorrow could lead to Fast Entry.
The earliest inclusion could be at the close on 30 May while the other global index inclusion looks likely in December.


CATL (3750 HK): Reassessing Index Fast Entry; Need Overallotment Exercised by Tomorrow

China

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited. operates as a battery products manufacturing company. The Company produces and sells power battery materials, energy storage batteries energy storage battery cells, systems, and other products. Contemporary Amperex Technology also provides batteries recycling services.

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH)

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Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH)

CATL (3750 HK): The Tail Wags the Dog

CATL (3750 HK) is trading lower from its high. Passive trackers will be buying a lot of CATL (3750 HK) at the close tomorrow, 30 May. The H-shares...

Brian Freitas

ECM Weekly (26 May 2025) - CATL, Hengrui, Eastroc, Haitian, Schloss, Aegis, Hyundai Marine, Pony

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

CATL (3750 HK)'s Concentration Warning

CATL's current valuations do not appear stretched versus a basket of peers. It is, however, worth noting the HKEx issued a high concentration...

David Blennerhassett

CATL (3750 HK): Fast-Entry to Global Indices Unlikely Despite $150B Market Cap

Global-M free float has risen from 45% to 50% following the greenshoe exercise, and the stock price has surged 16% above its offer price to 306.2...

Dimitris Ioannidis

CATL (3750 HK): Reassessing Index Fast Entry; Need Overallotment Exercised by Tomorrow

At HK$304/share, CATL (3750 HK) fails Fast Entry to both global indices. If CATL announces the overallotment option as fully exercised by COB 21...

Brian Freitas

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