China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>JD’s “10bn subsidy” program mainly subsidizes uncleared stale (avg. 339 days since launch) Xiaomi smartphone inventory for JD’s 1P/3P distributors but is not conductive for incremental Xiaomi unit demand. </li>
<li>Although JD subsidies help clear stale inventory, Xiaomi itself doesn’t benefit as these devices were sold last year and were already considered a sale.</li>
<li>JD’s program is not conductive of unit volume sell-through for new Xiaomi phone sales given its shallow breadth of stale SKU.  Re-iterate our SELL rating and HK$7.3 TP.</li>
</ul>


JD’s “10bn subsidy” program mainly subsidizes uncleared stale (avg. 339 days since launch) Xiaomi smartphone inventory for JD’s 1P/3P distributors but is not conductive for incremental Xiaomi unit demand. 
Although JD subsidies help clear stale inventory, Xiaomi itself doesn’t benefit as these devices were sold last year and were already considered a sale.
JD’s program is not conductive of unit volume sell-through for new Xiaomi phone sales given its shallow breadth of stale SKU.  Re-iterate our SELL rating and HK$7.3 TP.


[Xiaomi (1810 HK) Company Update]: JD Funds Distributors, but No Clear Benefit for Xiaomi

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%. This will lead to large flows.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc-4cc65854-d10c-4d20-bf7e-ca0e016715ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33772:1" rel="noopener">XPeng (9868 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>The largest outflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC (883 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">SMIC (981 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%. This will lead to large flows.
The largest inflows will be on Li Auto (2015 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), XPeng (9868 HK), JD.com (9618 HK), Alibaba (9988 HK), BYD (1211 HK) and Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK). 
The largest outflows will be on Tencent (700 HK), HSBC Holdings (5 HK), Baidu (9888 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK), NetEase (9999 HK), CNOOC (883 HK) and SMIC (981 HK).


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (March 2023)

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Feb 24th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Greatwall Motor, Yum China, Meitu, Techtronic.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Feb 24th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Greatwall Motor, Yum China, Meitu, Techtronic.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Greatwall Motor, Yum China, Meitu, Techtronic

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

Fiscal /: China local governments’ fiscal stress may roll over to 2023, think tank warnsContainers /: <a href="https://www.caixinglobal.com/2023-03-02/in-depth-how-a-global-shortage-turned-into-a-shipping-container-glut-102003436.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">How a global shortage turned into a shipping container glut</a>Corruption /: Corruption charges filed against former China Merchants Bank president

Fiscal /: China local governments’ fiscal stress may roll over to 2023, think tank warnsContainers /: How a global shortage turned into a shipping container glutCorruption /: Corruption charges filed against former China Merchants Bank president

CX Daily: China Local Governments’ Fiscal Stress May Roll Over to 2023, Think Tank Warns

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Mar 3rd based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were GWM (2333 HK), Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK), Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were GWM (2333 HK), Aia (1299 HK), China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Mar 3rd based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were GWM (2333 HK), Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK), Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were GWM (2333 HK), Aia (1299 HK), China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Mar 3rd): Great Wall Motor, China Mengniu Dairy, Sino Biopharmaceutical

China

Xiaomi Corporation manufactures communication equipment and parts. The Company produces and sells mobile phones, smart phone software,  set-top boxes, and related accessories. Xiaomi markets its products worldwide.

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Xiaomi (1810 HK)

[Xiaomi (1810 HK) Company Update]: JD Funds Distributors, but No Clear Benefit for Xiaomi

Although JD subsidies help clear stale inventory, Xiaomi itself doesn’t benefit as these devices were sold last year and were already considered a...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (March 2023)

The Hang Seng indices rebalance Friday. Capping uses today's closing prices. The one-way trade across all stocks across the indices is estimated at...

Brian Freitas

HK Short Interest Weekly: Greatwall Motor, Yum China, Meitu, Techtronic

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Feb 24th and highlight short interest changes in Greatwall Motor, Yum...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CX Daily: China Local Governments’ Fiscal Stress May Roll Over to 2023, Think Tank Warns

Fiscal /: China local governments’ fiscal stress may roll over to 2023, think tank warns Containers /: How a global shortage turned into a shipping...

Caixin Global

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Mar 3rd): Great Wall Motor, China Mengniu Dairy, Sino Biopharmaceutical

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were GWM (2333 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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