Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>In May, onshore Chinese investors bought US$5.85bn of HK-listed stocks, down sharply from the $19-21 bn net buying range of the past three months. The favorite stocks also changed sharply.</li>
<li>The hitherto Southbound favorites, Tencent, Alibaba and Xiaomi were sold down. Onshore investors’ current favorites seem to be the high dividend yield stocks, particularly China Mobile, CNOOC, China Construction Bank.</li>
<li>Competitive pressures crashed food delivery and EV share prices. But Southbound investors seem to see these share price drawdowns as buying opportunities. Meituan, Li Auto were bought in significant measure.</li>
</ul>


In May, onshore Chinese investors bought US$5.85bn of HK-listed stocks, down sharply from the $19-21 bn net buying range of the past three months. The favorite stocks also changed sharply.
The hitherto Southbound favorites, Tencent, Alibaba and Xiaomi were sold down. Onshore investors’ current favorites seem to be the high dividend yield stocks, particularly China Mobile, CNOOC, China Construction Bank.
Competitive pressures crashed food delivery and EV share prices. But Southbound investors seem to see these share price drawdowns as buying opportunities. Meituan, Li Auto were bought in significant measure.


Asian Equities: Southbound Flows Turning to Dividends and Beaten Down Sectors

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 30th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Catl, Horizonrobot, ICBC, Fl2 Csop Hsi, Fi2 Csop Hsi.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 30th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Catl, Horizonrobot, ICBC, Fl2 Csop Hsi, Fi2 Csop Hsi.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Catl, Horizonrobot, ICBC

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 6th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Meituan, CCB, CSPC Pharma, Alibaba, Petrochina, Tencent, Xiaomi.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 6th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Meituan, CCB, CSPC Pharma, Alibaba, Petrochina, Tencent, Xiaomi.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jun 6th): Meituan, CCB, CSPC Pharma, Alibaba, Petrochina, Tencent, Xiaomi

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia H20 sales to China were barred last month. Nvidia first mentioned designing a new China-specific chip. Maybe not: it looks very difficult to work around the updated US limits</li>
<li>Semiconductor design software was barred last week. Synopsys suspended its guidance. My industry checks suggests that the ban applies to Xiaomi (ie the new smartphone chip) and to Lenovo. </li>
<li>Hanmi Semi stopped shipping TC Bonder to Chinese clients. This is critical to make HBM memory that goes into AI processors.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia H20 sales to China were barred last month. Nvidia first mentioned designing a new China-specific chip. Maybe not: it looks very difficult to work around the updated US limits
Semiconductor design software was barred last week. Synopsys suspended its guidance. My industry checks suggests that the ban applies to Xiaomi (ie the new smartphone chip) and to Lenovo. 
Hanmi Semi stopped shipping TC Bonder to Chinese clients. This is critical to make HBM memory that goes into AI processors.


US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors Are Getting Worse

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-f-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44093:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (6936 HK)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-railway-group-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:264:1" rel="noopener">China Railway Group (390 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-securities-co-4f5d644c-0051-426f-9706-eaa74b0ba280" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22738:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Securities (6099 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)</a>. </li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy between 0.4-0.6x ADV in the adds and sell between 0.5-1.3x ADV in the deletes. There are some small capping flows too.</li>
<li>There are a lot of shorts in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-railway-group-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:264:1" rel="noopener">China Railway Group Ltd H (390 HK)</a> and China <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-securities-co-4f5d644c-0051-426f-9706-eaa74b0ba280" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22738:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK)</a>.   </li>
</ul>



Pop Mart (9992 HK) and S.F. Holding (6936 HK) will replace China Railway Group (390 HK) and China Merchants Securities (6099 HK) in the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US). 
Passive trackers will need to buy between 0.4-0.6x ADV in the adds and sell between 0.5-1.3x ADV in the deletes. There are some small capping flows too.
There are a lot of shorts in Pop Mart (9992 HK), China Railway Group Ltd H (390 HK) and China China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK).   


FXI Rebalance: Pop Mart, SF Holding In; China Merchant Sec, China Railway Out

China

Xiaomi Corporation manufactures communication equipment and parts. The Company produces and sells mobile phones, smart phone software,  set-top boxes, and related accessories. Xiaomi markets its products worldwide.

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Xiaomi (1810 HK)

Asian Equities: Southbound Flows Turning to Dividends and Beaten Down Sectors

In May, CN onshore investors moved from tech giants to high dividend yield stocks - CN Mobile, CNOOC & CCB. They saw buying opportunities in the...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

HK Short Interest Weekly: Catl, Horizonrobot, ICBC

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 30th and highlight short interest changes in Catl, Horizonrobot, ICBC,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jun 6th): Meituan, CCB, CSPC Pharma, Alibaba, Petrochina, Tencent, Xiaomi

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Meituan, CCB, CSPC Pharma, Alibaba, Petrochina, Tencent,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors Are Getting Worse

Nvidia might not have a workaround for a new China-specific chip. EDA software ban also for consumer electronics Xiaomi, Lenovo. Hanmi Semi halted...

Nicolas Baratte

FXI Rebalance: Pop Mart, SF Holding In; China Merchant Sec, China Railway Out

Pop Mart and SF Holdings replace China Railway and China Merchant Securities in the FXI ETF at the close on 20 June. SF Holding will also be added...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asian Equities: Southbound Flows Turning to Dividends and Beaten Down Sectors

In May, ​CN onshore investors moved from tech giants to high dividend yield stocks - CN Mobile, CNOOC & CCB. They saw buying opportunities in the...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

HK Short Interest Weekly: Catl, Horizonrobot, ICBC

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 30th and highlight short interest changes in Catl, Horizonrobot, ICBC,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jun 6th): Meituan, CCB, CSPC Pharma, Alibaba, Petrochina, Tencent, Xiaomi

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Meituan, CCB, CSPC Pharma, Alibaba, Petrochina, Tencent,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors Are Getting Worse

​Nvidia might not have a workaround for a new China-specific chip. EDA software ban also for consumer electronics Xiaomi, Lenovo. Hanmi Semi halted...

Nicolas Baratte

FXI Rebalance: Pop Mart, SF Holding In; China Merchant Sec, China Railway Out

Pop Mart and SF Holdings replace China Railway and China Merchant Securities in the FXI ETF at the close on 20 June. SF Holding will also be added...

Brian Freitas

In May, CN onshore investors moved from tech giants to high dividend yield stocks - CN Mobile, CNOOC & CCB. They saw buying opportunities in the...

Nvidia might not have a workaround for a new China-specific chip. EDA software ban also for consumer electronics Xiaomi, Lenovo. Hanmi Semi halted...