Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

Hon Hai Precision Industry / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>China smartphone market grows significantly in 3Q 2024, demonstrating strong demand for mobile devices.</li><li>Lam Research establishes new office at Tata-PSMC wafer fab, enhancing their presence in the semiconductor industry.</li><li>LG shifts focus to solutions over products in major restructuring, while BYD plans cost cuts in anticipation of potential tariffs.</li></ul>

China smartphone market grows significantly in 3Q 2024, demonstrating strong demand for mobile devices.Lam Research establishes new office at Tata-PSMC wafer fab, enhancing their presence in the semiconductor industry.LG shifts focus to solutions over products in major restructuring, while BYD plans cost cuts in anticipation of potential tariffs.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (29-Nov-2024): China smartphone market, Q3 2024

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The election of Donald Trump with overwhelming majority changes the investment logic of our sectors and perhaps others. But besides acknowledging, what is actionable is the broad impact expected globally; </li>
<li>Thus the questions of whether Trump's policies will be successful, become important: how flexible they are, what are the signposts and who stand to benefit and be hurt;</li>
<li>Our standing assumption is that both MAGA and non-MAGA will claim victory.  We are assuming quality executions from the Trump team but the odds of achieving is still daunting.</li>
</ul>


The election of Donald Trump with overwhelming majority changes the investment logic of our sectors and perhaps others. But besides acknowledging, what is actionable is the broad impact expected globally; 
Thus the questions of whether Trump's policies will be successful, become important: how flexible they are, what are the signposts and who stand to benefit and be hurt;
Our standing assumption is that both MAGA and non-MAGA will claim victory.  We are assuming quality executions from the Trump team but the odds of achieving is still daunting.


Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Implied vols were lower across all sectors on the week with option volumes peaking on Friday.</li>
<li>Post-Earnings vol crush helped push vols lower for key names.</li>
<li>Tencent stands out with low implied vols over the past year, high liquidity and is trading almost 17% below its 52 week high.</li>
</ul>


Implied vols were lower across all sectors on the week with option volumes peaking on Friday.
Post-Earnings vol crush helped push vols lower for key names.
Tencent stands out with low implied vols over the past year, high liquidity and is trading almost 17% below its 52 week high.


EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Haier plans to acquire all shares of Autohome and dismiss 30% of Autohome’s employees.</li>
<li>In 3Q24, Xiaomi's revenue grew by 30% YoY or 17% YoY without electric vehicle.</li>
<li>In 3Q24, Tongcheng Travel's revenue increased by 51% YoY with gross profit up by 29% YoY.</li>
</ul>


Haier plans to acquire all shares of Autohome and dismiss 30% of Autohome’s employees.
In 3Q24, Xiaomi's revenue grew by 30% YoY or 17% YoY without electric vehicle.
In 3Q24, Tongcheng Travel's revenue increased by 51% YoY with gross profit up by 29% YoY.


China Consumption Weekly (25 Nov 2024): Xiaomi, Haier, Autohome, Xpeng, Full Truck, Tongcheng

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In a surprise, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43993:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group (300 HK)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35280:1" rel="noopener">Weibo (9898 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> after the close of trading on 6 December.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$11.72bn (US$1.51bn). Passives need to buy 9x ADV in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43993:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group (300 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16185:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43993:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group (300 HK)</a> premium could drop due to the index inclusion providing an entry point into an AH expansion trade.</li>
</ul>


In a surprise, Midea Group (300 HK) will replace Weibo (9898 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) after the close of trading on 6 December.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$11.72bn (US$1.51bn). Passives need to buy 9x ADV in Midea Group (300 HK).
The Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) / Midea Group (300 HK) premium could drop due to the index inclusion providing an entry point into an AH expansion trade.


HSTECH Index Rebalance: Midea (300 HK) Replaces Weibo (9898 HK); US$1.5bn Round-Trip Trade

China

Xiaomi Corporation manufactures communication equipment and parts. The Company produces and sells mobile phones, smart phone software,  set-top boxes, and related accessories. Xiaomi markets its products worldwide.

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Xiaomi (1810 HK)

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (29-Nov-2024): China smartphone market, Q3 2024

China's smartphone market grows in 3Q 2024, Lam Research expands, LG restructures focus, BYD plans cuts, Qualcomm and MediaTek diverge, Nvidia...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Smart Trump, or Dumb Trump?

Election of Trump shifts investment logic but we differ on how. First realization is it is a zero sum game and assessing MAGA's chance of success...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly

Post-earnings vol crush the main contributor to decreased vols for key names. Tencent stands out for low implied vols, high liquidity while trading...

John Ley

China Consumption Weekly (25 Nov 2024): Xiaomi, Haier, Autohome, Xpeng, Full Truck, Tongcheng

Haier plans to acquire Autohome. In 3Q24, Xiaomi's revenue grew by 30% YoY or 17% YoY without electric vehicle. Tongcheng Travel revenue increased...

Ming Lu

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Midea (300 HK) Replaces Weibo (9898 HK); US$1.5bn Round-Trip Trade

Midea Group replaces Weibo in the HSTECH in Dec. Passives need to buy ~9% of the real float in Midea and that could lead to a drop in the AH...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (29-Nov-2024): China smartphone market, Q3 2024

China's smartphone market grows in 3Q 2024, Lam Research expands, LG restructures focus, BYD plans cuts, Qualcomm and MediaTek diverge, Nvidia...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Smart Trump, or Dumb Trump?

​Election of Trump shifts investment logic but we differ on how. First realization is it is a zero sum game and assessing MAGA's chance of success...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly

Post-earnings vol crush the main contributor to decreased vols for key names. Tencent stands out for low implied vols, high liquidity while trading...

John Ley

China Consumption Weekly (25 Nov 2024): Xiaomi, Haier, Autohome, Xpeng, Full Truck, Tongcheng

Haier plans to acquire Autohome. In 3Q24, Xiaomi's revenue grew by 30% YoY or 17% YoY without electric vehicle. Tongcheng Travel revenue increased...

Ming Lu

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Midea (300 HK) Replaces Weibo (9898 HK); US$1.5bn Round-Trip Trade

Midea Group replaces Weibo in the HSTECH in Dec. Passives need to buy ~9% of the real float in Midea and that could lead to a drop in the AH...

Brian Freitas

Election of Trump shifts investment logic but we differ on how. First realization is it is a zero sum game and assessing MAGA's chance of success...