'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/083/132/original/2019-03-25_18-58-11.png?1553507902" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="83132"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div>There are currently 241 listed Japanese companies that can be categorised as Internet businesses. Our classification overlaps with the TOPIX-33 Information &amp; Communication sub-Sector but is broader in that it encompasses all companies listed on all sections and exchanges but is also narrower in that we have excluded Telecommunications (including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">S</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">oftbank Group (9984 JP)</a>) and Information Technology companies. We have adopted a 'quantamental' approach which covers the long-term and current trends for Japan's Internet Sector as a whole, as well as eight sub-Sectors or Peer Groups and the Sectors' leading companies by market capitalisation.  Our focus is exclusively on the locally-listed universe and is based on disclosed financial and market data. We do not provide any forecasts, other than the companies' own forecasts and we do not attempt to make any business model or strategic judgments. Our focus is purely on financial and market performance. We do not cover unlisted and defunct companies such as Livedoor and, therefore, there is implicit survivor bias in the data. The broad themes that are developed in DETAIL below are grouped into six topics as follows: - • SUMMARY •  • FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW •  • SCORING - RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS / RELATIVE PRICE •  • RESULTS TRENDS •  • VALUATION • • RECOMMENDATIONS •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/083/206/original/2019-03-25_17-46-58.png?1553565764" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="83206"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>OVERVIEW - As will be covered in greater DETAIL below, Japan has failed to evolve a substantial Internet Sector and, in many business models, has been passed by global competitors including in the home market. Although Internet Sector revenues have grown steadily and now account for close to 1% of the total for all listed companies, operating margins have declined by half in the last seven years and are now only four percentage points higher than the market average. Accordingly, as measured by our Results &amp; Revision Score, the Sector is close to a twelve-year low. The market's response is an unchanged Sector weight in the market composite despite the addition of 111 new companies in the last six years, and a Relative Price Score that has moved in a narrow range over that period. The Sector averages disguise the weak business and market performance of a handful of Sector leaders as well as the overvaluation of the Sector's more successful business models, which is partly a result of a lack of alternatives. Despite the world's most significant Internet investor - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>'s Vision Fund - being based in Japan, this fund and other global investors in Internet business have been right to give Japan a 'pass'.


Source: Japan Analytics
There are currently 241 listed Japanese companies that can be categorised as Internet businesses. Our classification overlaps with the TOPIX-33 Information &amp; Communication sub-Sector but is broader in that it encompasses all companies listed on all sections and exchanges but is also narrower in that we have excluded Telecommunications (including Softbank Group (9984 JP)) and Information Technology companies. We have adopted a 'quantamental' approach which covers the long-term and current trends for Japan's Internet Sector as a whole, as well as eight sub-Sectors or Peer Groups and the Sectors' leading companies by market capitalisation.  Our focus is exclusively on the locally-listed universe and is based on disclosed financial and market data. We do not provide any forecasts, other than the companies' own forecasts and we do not attempt to make any business model or strategic judgments. Our focus is purely on financial and market performance. We do not cover unlisted and defunct companies such as Livedoor and, therefore, there is implicit survivor bias in the data. The broad themes that are developed in DETAIL below are grouped into six topics as follows: - • SUMMARY •  • FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW •  • SCORING - RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS / RELATIVE PRICE •  • RESULTS TRENDS •  • VALUATION • • RECOMMENDATIONS •Source: Japan AnalyticsOVERVIEW - As will be covered in greater DETAIL below, Japan has failed to evolve a substantial Internet Sector and, in many business models, has been passed by global competitors including in the home market. Although Internet Sector revenues have grown steadily and now account for close to 1% of the total for all listed companies, operating margins have declined by half in the last seven years and are now only four percentage points higher than the market average. Accordingly, as measured by our Results &amp; Revision Score, the Sector is close to a twelve-year low. The market's response is an unchanged Sector weight in the market composite despite the addition of 111 new companies in the last six years, and a Relative Price Score that has moved in a narrow range over that period. The Sector averages disguise the weak business and market performance of a handful of Sector leaders as well as the overvaluation of the Sector's more successful business models, which is partly a result of a lack of alternatives. Despite the world's most significant Internet investor - Softbank Group (9984 JP)'s Vision Fund - being based in Japan, this fund and other global investors in Internet business have been right to give Japan a 'pass'. 

🇯🇵 Japan • Internet Sector Review - 'Japan Passing'

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

As we bid adieu to the Q1 2019, there has been increasing angst about the possibility of a recession, though we have expressed our view that a number of internals cast doubt about the usefulness of the inverted yield curve signal (see <a href="https://humblestudentofthemarkets.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/20190325-How-the-market-could-melt-up.pdf" target="_blank">How the Market Could Melt Up</a>). Notwithstanding my skepticism, we would like to explore what happens in a recession.Recessions are cathartic processes that unwind the excesses of the past expansion cycle. The most obvious excess in this cycle has been the rise of Silicon Valley unicorns, private companies with valuations in excess of $1 billion.The enthusiasm that greeted the Lyft IPO has raised angst among some investors about the herd of unicorns stampeding toward the IPO door (see our colleague Barbara Gray’s report, <a href="https://www.pennockideahub.com/barbara-gray/" target="_blank">Why I Am Not Drinking the Lyft Kool-Aid &amp; New Insights from SXSW</a>). Could a stampede of unicorns mark a market top, and their subsequent cull sink the American economy?We find that while a unicorn cull could hurt some investors, these investors are well capitalized and losses are unlikely to be catastrophic for their portfolio. Unicorn investments are funded by VC money, which is not subject to little financial leverage, and the lack of leverage should be a mitigating factor in cushioning the economy from the worst of these effects.In addition, stock market valuations are elevated, but not at dangerous levels and there is no sign of a valuation bubble. The risk of a unicorn IPO crash dragging down stock prices is low. However, scenario of an IPO FOMO stampede that causes stock price surge, followed by a crash, remains on the table, but the market has to go up before it goes down.Further analysis of the risk of a global recession indicates that slowdown risk is relatively low. Investors should be able to sleep well, and stay with a risk-on profile in their portfolios.

As we bid adieu to the Q1 2019, there has been increasing angst about the possibility of a recession, though we have expressed our view that a number of internals cast doubt about the usefulness of the inverted yield curve signal (see How the Market Could Melt Up). Notwithstanding my skepticism, we would like to explore what happens in a recession.Recessions are cathartic processes that unwind the excesses of the past expansion cycle. The most obvious excess in this cycle has been the rise of Silicon Valley unicorns, private companies with valuations in excess of $1 billion.The enthusiasm that greeted the Lyft IPO has raised angst among some investors about the herd of unicorns stampeding toward the IPO door (see our colleague Barbara Gray’s report, Why I Am Not Drinking the Lyft Kool-Aid &amp; New Insights from SXSW). Could a stampede of unicorns mark a market top, and their subsequent cull sink the American economy?We find that while a unicorn cull could hurt some investors, these investors are well capitalized and losses are unlikely to be catastrophic for their portfolio. Unicorn investments are funded by VC money, which is not subject to little financial leverage, and the lack of leverage should be a mitigating factor in cushioning the economy from the worst of these effects.In addition, stock market valuations are elevated, but not at dangerous levels and there is no sign of a valuation bubble. The risk of a unicorn IPO crash dragging down stock prices is low. However, scenario of an IPO FOMO stampede that causes stock price surge, followed by a crash, remains on the table, but the market has to go up before it goes down.Further analysis of the risk of a global recession indicates that slowdown risk is relatively low. Investors should be able to sleep well, and stay with a risk-on profile in their portfolios.

Could A Unicorn Cull Tank The US Economy?

Asia Ex Japan; Technology and Consumption.

Rohinee Sharma

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/665" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1">Facebook Inc A (FB US)</a> : Mark Zuckerberg sees the light or is facing the WeChat burn? It seems like the whole tilt towards ensuring a more safe, secure environment lies in its play to emulate WeChat...eventually. But first, it needs to address specific issues of data protection, security and privacy that plague the company and possibly think around altering its current revenues via the advertisement model.
The company certainly seems to be moving towards making a token/coin and is even hiring blockchain specialists. Could it look to make a Stablecoin? Work on a M-Pesa model ? Target remittances in countries like India? It seems a long road and arduous road ahead- but it has been dropping directional hints along the way.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24423" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24423:1">Lyft Inc (0812823D US)</a> : Why does <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24423" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24423:1">Lyft Inc (0812823D US)</a> want to list exactly aside locking in money before the number one player swamps the market ? Could it be regulatory changes on the anvil ? And would those be food for thought for Asia plays - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26950" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1">Grabtaxi Holdings Pte (0967655D SP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27467" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1">DiDi Chuxing (1284375D CH)</a>  and Olacabs ?

Facebook Inc A (FB US) : Mark Zuckerberg sees the light or is facing the WeChat burn? It seems like the whole tilt towards ensuring a more safe, secure environment lies in its play to emulate WeChat...eventually. But first, it needs to address specific issues of data protection, security and privacy that plague the company and possibly think around altering its current revenues via the advertisement model.
The company certainly seems to be moving towards making a token/coin and is even hiring blockchain specialists. Could it look to make a Stablecoin? Work on a M-Pesa model ? Target remittances in countries like India? It seems a long road and arduous road ahead- but it has been dropping directional hints along the way.
Lyft Inc (0812823D US) : Why does Lyft Inc (0812823D US) want to list exactly aside locking in money before the number one player swamps the market ? Could it be regulatory changes on the anvil ? And would those be food for thought for Asia plays - Grabtaxi Holdings Pte (0967655D SP)DiDi Chuxing (1284375D CH)  and Olacabs ?

Bits and Bytes : Facebook Feels the WeChat Burn + Why Does Lyft Want to List ?

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/go-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49420:1" rel="noopener">GO (581A JP)</a> a leading taxi app in Japan, aims to raise around US$550m via a secondary selldown in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>GO combines app-based taxi hailing with in-taxi technology to meet the needs of both users and partner taxi operators through services such as ride matching, payment processing and advertising.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company's past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>



GO (581A JP) a leading taxi app in Japan, aims to raise around US$550m via a secondary selldown in its Japan IPO.
GO combines app-based taxi hailing with in-taxi technology to meet the needs of both users and partner taxi operators through services such as ride matching, payment processing and advertising.
We have looked at the company's past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.


Aequitas: GO Inc Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuations

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

<div class="content-highlight"><h2>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16764" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21227" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21227:1">STMicroelectronics NV (STM IM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11965" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11965:1">Qorvo Inc (QRVO US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/969" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:969:1">Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)</a> remain attractively priced.</h2></div><hr><h2>AV, Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, Internet of Things, HealthTech and 5G Were All on Display</h2>We attended CES (formerly known as the Consumer Electronics Show), the premier technology showcase, in Las Vegas in January 2019, looking at both public and private companies. In our view, CES continues to evolve and diversify, as the focus is still drifting away from smartphones, tablets, and PCs and toward industrial, automotive, Internet of Things, and health applications. Across our public and private research coverage, we remain most impressed with the push toward active safety systems in automobiles, autonomous driving (including our self-driving car ride with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24423" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24423:1">Lyft Inc (0812823D US)</a>), and transportation technology. We've long believed that the push toward safer, greener, smarter cars would be led by rising electronics content per vehicle, in turn boosting revenue growth for many technology firms under our coverage. We see no signs of these content gains slowing down in vehicles, as more and more sensors, processors, connectivity, and software enhancements are enabling the latest vehicle technologies.Across our public equity research coverage, we remain impressed with Intel's push into transportation via its acquisition of Mobileye. We also remain bullish on STMicro as we view the firm as far more than an Apple iPhone supplier and like its diversified product portfolio and ongoing push into automotive. Qorvo also appears deeply undervalued as long-term iPhone demand concerns are overdone, in our view. Our meetings with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5891" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1">Nvidia Corp (NVDA US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12574" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12574:1">Analog Devices (ADI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12245" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12245:1">Synaptics Inc (SYNA US)</a>, Qorvo also provided us with new insights.Finally, in addition to our autonomous driving ride with Lyft, we met with several interesting private companies, such as uBeam and Intellithings in the Internet of Things space, Wearable Health PLC and Bongmi with impressive HealthTech products, and Bell, the helicopter company whose demo was a highlight of the show as it is partnering with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/430" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:430:1">Uber Technologies (0084207D US)</a> on the Nexus air taxi. Additionally, our meetings with Cognata and Seoul Robotics gave us insight into the evolving investments into automotive-grade LiDAR solutions.Analysts: Brian Colello et al.


Intel Corp (INTC US), STMicroelectronics NV (STM IM), Qorvo Inc (QRVO US), and Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) remain attractively priced.AV, Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, Internet of Things, HealthTech and 5G Were All on DisplayWe attended CES (formerly known as the Consumer Electronics Show), the premier technology showcase, in Las Vegas in January 2019, looking at both public and private companies. In our view, CES continues to evolve and diversify, as the focus is still drifting away from smartphones, tablets, and PCs and toward industrial, automotive, Internet of Things, and health applications. Across our public and private research coverage, we remain most impressed with the push toward active safety systems in automobiles, autonomous driving (including our self-driving car ride with Lyft Inc (0812823D US)), and transportation technology. We've long believed that the push toward safer, greener, smarter cars would be led by rising electronics content per vehicle, in turn boosting revenue growth for many technology firms under our coverage. We see no signs of these content gains slowing down in vehicles, as more and more sensors, processors, connectivity, and software enhancements are enabling the latest vehicle technologies.Across our public equity research coverage, we remain impressed with Intel's push into transportation via its acquisition of Mobileye. We also remain bullish on STMicro as we view the firm as far more than an Apple iPhone supplier and like its diversified product portfolio and ongoing push into automotive. Qorvo also appears deeply undervalued as long-term iPhone demand concerns are overdone, in our view. Our meetings with Nvidia Corp (NVDA US), Analog Devices (ADI US), Synaptics Inc (SYNA US), Qorvo also provided us with new insights.Finally, in addition to our autonomous driving ride with Lyft, we met with several interesting private companies, such as uBeam and Intellithings in the Internet of Things space, Wearable Health PLC and Bongmi with impressive HealthTech products, and Bell, the helicopter company whose demo was a highlight of the show as it is partnering with Uber Technologies (0084207D US) on the Nexus air taxi. Additionally, our meetings with Cognata and Seoul Robotics gave us insight into the evolving investments into automotive-grade LiDAR solutions.Analysts: Brian Colello et al.

Autonomous Driving Fuels Our CES 2019 Public and Private Company Takeaways

United States

Lyft, Inc. provides online ridesharing services. The Company offers ride booking, payment processing, and car transportation services. Lyft serves customers in the United States.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Lyft (LYFT US)

🇯🇵 Japan • Internet Sector Review - 'Japan Passing'

There are currently 241 listed Japanese companies that can be categorised as Internet businesses. Our classification overlaps with the TOPIX-33...

Campbell Gunn

Could A Unicorn Cull Tank The US Economy?

As we bid adieu to the Q1 2019, there has been increasing angst about the possibility of a recession, though we have expressed our view that a...

Cam Hui

Bits and Bytes : Facebook Feels the WeChat Burn + Why Does Lyft Want to List ?

Facebook Inc A (FB US) : Mark Zuckerberg sees the light or is facing the WeChat burn? It seems like the whole tilt towards ensuring a more safe,...

Rohinee Sharma

Aequitas: GO Inc Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuations

GO (581A JP) a leading taxi app in Japan, aims to raise around US$550m via a secondary selldown in its Japan IPO. In this note, we talk about...

Sumeet Singh

Autonomous Driving Fuels Our CES 2019 Public and Private Company Takeaways

Intel Corp (INTC US), STMicroelectronics NV (STM IM), Qorvo Inc (QRVO US), and Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) remain attractively priced.AV, Artificial...

Morningstar, Inc.

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)