Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.</li>
<li>A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.</li>
<li>With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is <em>above</em> $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
</ul>


We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.
A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.
With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is above $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.


Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Bharat Heavy Electricals / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December. We had forecast all the index changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 57.7% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21.75bn (US$261m). 8 stocks have over 1x ADV to trade; 21 stocks have atleast 0.5x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The adds have continued to outperform the deletes and the index and there could be further outperformance heading into year-end and buying from passive trackers.</li>
</ul>


There are 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December. We had forecast all the index changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 57.7% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21.75bn (US$261m). 8 stocks have over 1x ADV to trade; 21 stocks have atleast 0.5x ADV to trade.
The adds have continued to outperform the deletes and the index and there could be further outperformance heading into year-end and buying from passive trackers.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

<ul>
<li>There were a lot of rebalance implementations in China on Friday, plus a few upcoming index changes that were announced during the week.</li>
<li>There are a lot of implementations this week, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> on Thursday and then others across a bunch of countries on Friday.</li>
<li>There were big inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a> during the week taking units outstanding to a new high. ETF inflows continue even as the market drops.</li>
</ul>


There were a lot of rebalance implementations in China on Friday, plus a few upcoming index changes that were announced during the week.
There are a lot of implementations this week, with KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 on Thursday and then others across a bunch of countries on Friday.
There were big inflows to Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) during the week taking units outstanding to a new high. ETF inflows continue even as the market drops.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

<ul>
<li>There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 58.2% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m).</li>
<li>Since July, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.</li>
</ul>


There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 58.2% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m).
Since July, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 58% Turnover & Strong Momentum

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Tata Technologies / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23700:1" rel="noopener">Tata Technologies</a> (TT) is looking to raise around US$370m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>Tata Technologies is a global engineering services company offering product development and digital solutions, including turnkey solutions, to global original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and their tier 1 suppliers.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>



Tata Technologies (TT) is looking to raise around US$370m in its upcoming India IPO.
Tata Technologies is a global engineering services company offering product development and digital solutions, including turnkey solutions, to global original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and their tier 1 suppliers.
In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about valuations.


Tata Technologies IPO - Parent and Peer Rally Helps

India

Larsen & Toubro Ltd manufactures engineering equipment, undertakes large scale engineering projects, and acts as the Indian representative for a number of overseas manufacturers of heavy machinery. The Company's products include bulldozers, road rollers, dairy machinery, chemical and pharmaceutical plants, switchgears, food processing machinery and feed milling plants.

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Larsen & Toubro (LT IN)

Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

Pause/pullback underway in $ACWI, but as long as the $DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and $ACWI is above...

Vermilion Research

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

The adds and deletes have performed in line since announcement of the changes a little over a week ago. With 10 trading days to implementation,...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 58% Turnover & Strong Momentum

There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index resulting in 1-way turnover of 58.2% and in a 1-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m). Adds...

Brian Freitas

Tata Technologies IPO - Parent and Peer Rally Helps

Tata Technologies (TT) is looking to raise around US$370m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Sumeet Singh

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