Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Large cap tech keeps the tape in the green, but tape unexciting on low vols</li>
<li>Disco tech briefing gives clues to next-gen dicing and grinding technologies</li>
<li>PC makers locking in memory supplies for next year as margins for DRAM/SSD makers surge</li>
</ul>


Large cap tech keeps the tape in the green, but tape unexciting on low vols
Disco tech briefing gives clues to next-gen dicing and grinding technologies
PC makers locking in memory supplies for next year as margins for DRAM/SSD makers surge


Japan Morning Connection: Xi-Trump Semi-Truce Holds for Now

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Dec 19th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD19,663m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Furukawa Battery, Kioxia, Skylark, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Advantest, Disco, McDonald's, Mizuho Financial, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Lasertec, Furukawa Battery, Kioxia, Skylark.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Dec 19th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD19,663m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Furukawa Battery, Kioxia, Skylark, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Advantest, Disco, McDonald's, Mizuho Financial, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Lasertec, Furukawa Battery, Kioxia, Skylark.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Dec 19th): Furukawa Battery, Kioxia, Skylark, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>DISCO is the global leader in wafer dicing and grinding, holding ~70–80% market share in critical back-end semiconductor tools.</li>
<li>Anagement is expanding capacity via the Gohara Plant (FY2028) and upgrading innovation at the Haneda R&amp;D Center (FY2025–27) to secure its edge in hybrid bonding, PLP, and stealth dicing.</li>
<li>Revenues are projected to grow ~11% CAGR to FY2028, with EPS potentially reaching ¥1,500, but the stock trades at a premium ~33x FY26E P/E.</li>
</ul>


DISCO is the global leader in wafer dicing and grinding, holding ~70–80% market share in critical back-end semiconductor tools.
Anagement is expanding capacity via the Gohara Plant (FY2028) and upgrading innovation at the Haneda R&amp;D Center (FY2025–27) to secure its edge in hybrid bonding, PLP, and stealth dicing.
Revenues are projected to grow ~11% CAGR to FY2028, with EPS potentially reaching ¥1,500, but the stock trades at a premium ~33x FY26E P/E.


DISCO Corporation (TSE: 6146) – From Abrasive Wheels to AI Packaging Champion

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>Japan is the darling of the moment. To those who haven’t kept track of the story, a series of <a href="https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/equities/improvements/follow-up/b5b4pj000004yqcc-att/dreu250000000uqc.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">market reforms in January</a> encourages companies with a price-to-book ratio below one to create a plan to achieve capital efficiency.</li><li>Given that half of the companies at the time were trading below 1x P/B, this is a big deal.</li><li>And this has driven a massive wave of buybacks and changes, leading to the Nikkei finally breaking a 30-year high.</li></ul>

Japan is the darling of the moment. To those who haven’t kept track of the story, a series of market reforms in January encourages companies with a price-to-book ratio below one to create a plan to achieve capital efficiency.Given that half of the companies at the time were trading below 1x P/B, this is a big deal.And this has driven a massive wave of buybacks and changes, leading to the Nikkei finally breaking a 30-year high.

Japanese Semiconductor Stocks and AI "Winners" that Ain't So

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>DISCO Mar-25 results beat Consensus by ~12%. Jun-25 guidance is very weak but DISCO always under-guides egregiously. But it’s weak.</li>
<li>Consensus has revised down its Jun-25 revenue forecast from 12% YoY growth to 6% but left Sept-Dec-25 unchanged at ~10% YoY growth. The odds are that Consensus is too high.</li>
<li>The stock is down -39% since end Dec-24 but still trading at 20x EPS in the face of downside risks to Consensus. Not appealing.</li>
</ul>


DISCO Mar-25 results beat Consensus by ~12%. Jun-25 guidance is very weak but DISCO always under-guides egregiously. But it’s weak.
Consensus has revised down its Jun-25 revenue forecast from 12% YoY growth to 6% but left Sept-Dec-25 unchanged at ~10% YoY growth. The odds are that Consensus is too high.
The stock is down -39% since end Dec-24 but still trading at 20x EPS in the face of downside risks to Consensus. Not appealing.


DISCO: Growth Is Slowing Down, the Stock Is Still Expensive

Japan

DISCO CORPORATION manufactures abrasive and precision industrial machinery for cutting and grinding purposes.  The Company's products are applied in the semiconductor, electronics, and construction industries to produce consumer goods such as personal computers, digital cameras, video game systems, and Digital Video Disc (DVD) players.

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DISCO Corp (6146 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Xi-Trump Semi-Truce Holds for Now

Trump holding off additional chip tarrifs on China for now. Disco has room to run on anticipation for new packaging and processing techniques.

Andrew Jackson

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Dec 19th): Furukawa Battery, Kioxia, Skylark, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Furukawa Battery (6937 JP), Kioxia (285A JP), Skylark (3197 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

DISCO Corporation (TSE: 6146) – From Abrasive Wheels to AI Packaging Champion

DISCO is the global leader in wafer dicing and grinding, holding ~70–80% market share in critical back-end semiconductor tools.

Rahul Jain

Japanese Semiconductor Stocks and AI "Winners" that Ain't So

Another BSPDN name and some ABF ideas. Not every AI semiconductor stock is actually winning. This edition just so happens to be Japan focused

Fabricated Knowledge

DISCO: Growth Is Slowing Down, the Stock Is Still Expensive

DISCO beats Mar-25 Consensus but weak Jun-25 guidance. Consensus too high on revenue forecasts. Stock down -39% but still overvalued at 20x EPS.

Nicolas Baratte

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Japan Morning Connection: Xi-Trump Semi-Truce Holds for Now

Trump holding off additional chip tarrifs on China for now. Disco has room to run on anticipation for new packaging and processing techniques.

Andrew Jackson

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Dec 19th): Furukawa Battery, Kioxia, Skylark, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Furukawa Battery (6937 JP), Kioxia (285A JP), Skylark (3197 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

DISCO Corporation (TSE: 6146) – From Abrasive Wheels to AI Packaging Champion

DISCO is the global leader in wafer dicing and grinding, holding ~70–80% market share in critical back-end semiconductor tools.

Rahul Jain

Japanese Semiconductor Stocks and AI "Winners" that Ain't So

Another BSPDN name and some ABF ideas. Not every AI semiconductor stock is actually winning. This edition just so happens to be Japan focused

Fabricated Knowledge

DISCO: Growth Is Slowing Down, the Stock Is Still Expensive

​DISCO beats Mar-25 Consensus but weak Jun-25 guidance. Consensus too high on revenue forecasts. Stock down -39% but still overvalued at 20x EPS.

Nicolas Baratte

DISCO beats Mar-25 Consensus but weak Jun-25 guidance. Consensus too high on revenue forecasts. Stock down -39% but still overvalued at 20x EPS.