Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 December and will end on 28 February.</li>
<li>Over halfway through the review period, we forecast 39 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.</li>
<li>Three potential downward migrations were deleted from a global index in November. Now, four more potential downward migrations could be deleted from the same global index in February.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 December and will end on 28 February.
Over halfway through the review period, we forecast 39 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.
Three potential downward migrations were deleted from a global index in November. Now, four more potential downward migrations could be deleted from the same global index in February.


KOSPI Size Indices: When Active Met Passive

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August. Only 4 trading days to go.</li>
<li>We see 7 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 1 new addition to LargeCap, 12 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap and 3 new additions to MidCap.</li>
<li>The upward migrations have underperformed the downward migrations over the last month as a few stocks have sold off hard. Some despite being included in global indices.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August. Only 4 trading days to go.
We see 7 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 1 new addition to LargeCap, 12 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap and 3 new additions to MidCap.
The upward migrations have underperformed the downward migrations over the last month as a few stocks have sold off hard. Some despite being included in global indices.


KOSPI Size Indices: Momentum Stalls; (Some) Upward Migrations Sell-Off

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August.</li>
<li>We see 8 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 1 new addition to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap and 3 new additions to MidCap.</li>
<li>There are a few stocks that are expected to have passive flows from global and local index trackers over the next few months and that will add to the impact.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August.
We see 8 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 1 new addition to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap and 3 new additions to MidCap.
There are a few stocks that are expected to have passive flows from global and local index trackers over the next few months and that will add to the impact.


KOSPI Size Indices: Outperformance Slows on Momentum Stalls

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

HDC Hyundai Development Co-Engineering & Construction / Equity Bottom-Up

HDC Hyundai Development Co-Engineering & Construction

<ul>
<li>On 28 January, the government (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) announced that it has recommended the heaviest punishment of the cancellation of the construction license for HDC Hyundai Development.</li>
<li>Seoul city government said it will make a decision on the fate of HDC Hyundai Development within six months.</li>
<li>Rather than a complete, permanent cancellation of the company's business license, a more likely scenario is about 6 to 12 months of temporary business operation suspension, in our view. </li>
</ul>


On 28 January, the government (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) announced that it has recommended the heaviest punishment of the cancellation of the construction license for HDC Hyundai Development.
Seoul city government said it will make a decision on the fate of HDC Hyundai Development within six months.
Rather than a complete, permanent cancellation of the company's business license, a more likely scenario is about 6 to 12 months of temporary business operation suspension, in our view. 


HDC Hyundai Development: Permanent Business License Cancellation or Temporary Business Suspension?

<p><strong>It was reported in the local media today that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20987" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20987:1">Shinsegae Co Ltd (004170 KS)</a> acquired Casamia, the sixth largest home furnishing provider in Korea for 180 billion won (92% stake).</strong> This is an attempt by Shinsegae to vertically integrate its retail business model and make efforts to expand beyond the weakness in the department store sales. Casamia had sales of 122 billion won, operating profit of 9.3 billion won, and net profit of 8.4 billion won in 2016. This would imply Casamia valuation at 23x…</p>

It was reported in the local media today that Shinsegae Co Ltd (004170 KS) acquired Casamia, the sixth largest home furnishing provider in Korea for 180 billion won (92% stake). This is an attempt by Shinsegae to vertically integrate its retail business model and make efforts to expand beyond the weakness in the department store sales. Casamia had sales of 122 billion won, operating profit of 9.3 billion won, and net profit of 8.4 billion won in 2016. This would imply Casamia valuation at 23x…

Korea M&A Spotlight: Shinsegae Acquires Casamia

South Korea

Fursys Inc. produces a wide range of integrated office furniture, such as desks, chairs, tables, sofas, and cabinets.  The Company provides its products mainly to domestic market.

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Fursys Inc (016800 KS)

KOSPI Size Indices: When Active Met Passive

There could be 39 migrations in March. Most of the Large to Mid migrations have been, or will be, deleted from a large global index. Along with...

Brian Freitas

KOSPI Size Indices: Momentum Stalls; (Some) Upward Migrations Sell-Off

There could be 41 changes to the KOSPI Size Indices in September. The upward migrations have underperformed the downward migrations over the last...

Brian Freitas

KOSPI Size Indices: Outperformance Slows on Momentum Stalls

There could be 41 stocks migrating between size segments in September. The upward migrations have outperformed the downward migrations but the...

Brian Freitas

HDC Hyundai Development: Permanent Business License Cancellation or Temporary Business Suspension?

On 28 January, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport announced that it has recommended the heaviest punishment of the cancellation of...

Douglas Kim

Korea M&A Spotlight: Shinsegae Acquires Casamia

It was reported in the local media today that Shinsegae Co Ltd (004170 KS) acquired Casamia, the sixth largest home furnishing provider in Korea...

Douglas Kim

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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