Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

<ul>
<li>We downgraded our global (MSCI ACWI) near-term outlook to neutral in our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision, following ACWI-US breaking below $141.50 support.</li>
<li>The bottom line is that we do not see the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) or MSCI ACWI breaking out to new highs –at least not until we see more downside first.</li>
<li>The growing list of concerns that we have discussed since early-February remains a problem for global equities. Crucial <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)</a>  support at $134-$135.70 testing now.</li>
</ul>


We downgraded our global (MSCI ACWI) near-term outlook to neutral in our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision, following ACWI-US breaking below $141.50 support.
The bottom line is that we do not see the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) or MSCI ACWI breaking out to new highs –at least not until we see more downside first.
The growing list of concerns that we have discussed since early-February remains a problem for global equities. Crucial iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)  support at $134-$135.70 testing now.


Stay Defensive. Buys in Global Energy, Materials, Transports, Communications, Utilities, Staples

<ul>
<li>In our latest int'l reports we have preached caution, and since January we have discussed our expectations for $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US</li>
<li>Thus far, $93 has proven to be rock-solid resistance, and ACWI-US now displays a 4.5-month uptrend violation signaling the pullback has officially begun.</li>
<li>We would expect this pullback to continue down to $86-87 at minimum, and potentially $84 (December 2022 low). Even $75-77 (the 2022 lows) is not out of the question.</li>
</ul>


In our latest int'l reports we have preached caution, and since January we have discussed our expectations for $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US
Thus far, $93 has proven to be rock-solid resistance, and ACWI-US now displays a 4.5-month uptrend violation signaling the pullback has officially begun.
We would expect this pullback to continue down to $86-87 at minimum, and potentially $84 (December 2022 low). Even $75-77 (the 2022 lows) is not out of the question.


MSCI ACWI Uptrend Break; Defensives to Shine; Ideas in Staples, Health Care, Telecomm, Utilities

<p>Most major indexes are currently trading at the lower end of their May trading ranges. Barring improving headlines regarding tariffs &amp; trade or comments from the Fed suggesting a potential rate cut on the horizon we believe global markets are vulnerable to further weakness. We review all major markets and highlight attractive opportunities within Japan, and global real estate developers, and consumer staples stocks.</p>

Most major indexes are currently trading at the lower end of their May trading ranges. Barring improving headlines regarding tariffs &amp; trade or comments from the Fed suggesting a potential rate cut on the horizon we believe global markets are vulnerable to further weakness. We review all major markets and highlight attractive opportunities within Japan, and global real estate developers, and consumer staples stocks.

Major Indexes Testing Support & Vulnerable to Further Weakness

<p>As global equity markets pull back amid the U.S./China tariff saga we continue to believe this is an attractive time to add exposure. This view is supported technically with all major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and EM) pulling back to their respective 200-day moving averages. In this report we highlight important technical levels across global markets and highlight actionable opportunities from a bottoms-up perspective within Europe (attractive pullback opportunity on the STOXX Europe 600 index) and Japan, including stocks within Financials, Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Manufacturing.</p>

As global equity markets pull back amid the U.S./China tariff saga we continue to believe this is an attractive time to add exposure. This view is supported technically with all major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and EM) pulling back to their respective 200-day moving averages. In this report we highlight important technical levels across global markets and highlight actionable opportunities from a bottoms-up perspective within Europe (attractive pullback opportunity on the STOXX Europe 600 index) and Japan, including stocks within Financials, Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Manufacturing.

Opportunities in European & Japanese Equities

Canada

Saputo Inc. manufactures dairy and grocery products.  The Company manufactures Italian cheeses, European cheeses, and North American cheeses.  Saputo also operates a distribution network through which it markets a variety of imported cheeses and non-dairy products to complement its cheese offerings.  The Company also produces and distributes snack cakes, cookies, breads, and soups.

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Saputo (SAP CN)

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Stay Defensive. Buys in Global Energy, Materials, Transports, Communications, Utilities, Staples

Thursday's International Compass: Stay Defensive. Actionable Global Sectors: Energy, Materials, Transportation, Communications, Utilities, and...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI Uptrend Break; Defensives to Shine; Ideas in Staples, Health Care, Telecomm, Utilities

$93 on $ACWI has proven to be rock-solid resistance, and it now displays a 4.5-month uptrend violation signaling the pullback has officially begun....

Vermilion Research

Major Indexes Testing Support & Vulnerable to Further Weakness

Most major indexes are currently trading at the lower end of their May trading ranges. Barring improving headlines regarding tariffs & trade or...

Vermilion Research

Opportunities in European & Japanese Equities

As global equity markets pull back amid the U.S./China tariff saga we continue to believe this is an attractive time to add exposure. This view is...

Vermilion Research

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