Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Market Reaction: The announcement of US reciprocal tariffs caused significant declines across Asia-Pacific markets. Although initial losses were partially recovered during the day, most markets closed substantially lower.</li>
<li>
Impact on South Korea: South Korea faces a 25% tariff. This led to a 1.5% drop in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX).</a> </li>
<li>
Volatility Increase: The Kospi 200 VIX index rose to a high of 28.64 before retreating to 26.05, indicating the 99th percentile of implied volatility.</li>
</ul>



Market Reaction: The announcement of US reciprocal tariffs caused significant declines across Asia-Pacific markets. Although initial losses were partially recovered during the day, most markets closed substantially lower.

Impact on South Korea: South Korea faces a 25% tariff. This led to a 1.5% drop in the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX). 

Volatility Increase: The Kospi 200 VIX index rose to a high of 28.64 before retreating to 26.05, indicating the 99th percentile of implied volatility.


KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 Index) Hits 99th Percentile Implied Volatility Amid US Tariff Impact

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Short notional ticked higher on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets and is expected to continue increasing over the next few months.</li>
<li>Since the resumption of short selling, foreign holdings of Korean equities have increased from 29.26% to 29.3%.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a> ratio has stayed stable over the last 3 trading days.</li>
</ul>


Short notional ticked higher on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets and is expected to continue increasing over the next few months.
Since the resumption of short selling, foreign holdings of Korean equities have increased from 29.26% to 29.3%.
The Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) to KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) ratio has stayed stable over the last 3 trading days.


Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Mar 28th which has an aggregated short of USD 3.6bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Samsung Electronics, Shinhan Group, KB Financial, Samsung Biologics.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Mar 28th which has an aggregated short of USD 3.6bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Samsung Electronics, Shinhan Group, KB Financial, Samsung Biologics.


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 28th): Samsung Electronics, Shinhan Group, KB Financial

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With the averaging period for the April rebalance now complete, we forecast just 1 change for the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the upcoming rebalance.</li>
<li>Based on the passive assets tracking the index, there will be between 0.8-2.2x ADV to trade in the forecast changes.</li>
<li>The resumption of short selling makes it easier to position for these events. That could also result in the shorts moving a lot ahead of implementation.</li>
</ul>


With the averaging period for the April rebalance now complete, we forecast just 1 change for the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the upcoming rebalance.
Based on the passive assets tracking the index, there will be between 0.8-2.2x ADV to trade in the forecast changes.
The resumption of short selling makes it easier to position for these events. That could also result in the shorts moving a lot ahead of implementation.


FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Just One Change Likely

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>
Short selling in all stocks in South Korea will resume from 31 March 2025. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)</a> is approaching the overboughtarea according to our models.</li>
<li>If the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> can rise for another week, it would be perfectly ripe for a large, high probability SHORT trade.</li>
<li>The probability of WEEKLY reversal in the range between the last Close (355) and the 363 resistance limit is between 50% and 75%, pretty high.</li>
</ul>



Short selling in all stocks in South Korea will resume from 31 March 2025. The KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY) is approaching the overboughtarea according to our models.
If the KOSPI 200 can rise for another week, it would be perfectly ripe for a large, high probability SHORT trade.
The probability of WEEKLY reversal in the range between the last Close (355) and the 363 resistance limit is between 50% and 75%, pretty high.


Short Selling Resumes in Korea Just as the KOSPI 200 Braces for Pullback (Perfect Timing!)

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Samsung Electronics (SMSN LI)

KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 Index) Hits 99th Percentile Implied Volatility Amid US Tariff Impact

US reciprocal tariffs announcement caused significant declines in Asia-Pacific markets, impacting South Korea with the KOSPI 200 implied...

Gaudenz Schneider

Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?

Short notional has increased as has foreign ownership of Korean equities. Stock selection will become increasingly important. The forecast index...

Brian Freitas

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 28th): Samsung Electronics, Shinhan Group, KB Financial

We analyzed KRX short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Samsung Electronics, Shinhan Group, KB Financial,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Just One Change Likely

Jusung Engineering could replace Wonik IPS in the index next week. Passives need to trade between 0.8-2.2x ADV in the stocks. The resumption of...

Brian Freitas

Short Selling Resumes in Korea Just as the KOSPI 200 Braces for Pullback (Perfect Timing!)

The week after this insight was published, the KOSPI 200 started to fall (that was one of the possible scenarios analyzed). This Monday, as short...

Nico Rosti

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 Index) Hits 99th Percentile Implied Volatility Amid US Tariff Impact

​US reciprocal tariffs announcement caused significant declines in Asia-Pacific markets, impacting South Korea with the KOSPI 200 implied...

Gaudenz Schneider

Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?

Short notional has increased as has foreign ownership of Korean equities. Stock selection will become increasingly important. The forecast index...

Brian Freitas

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 28th): Samsung Electronics, Shinhan Group, KB Financial

We analyzed KRX short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Samsung Electronics, Shinhan Group, KB Financial,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Just One Change Likely

Jusung Engineering could replace Wonik IPS in the index next week. Passives need to trade between 0.8-2.2x ADV in the stocks. The resumption of...

Brian Freitas

Short Selling Resumes in Korea Just as the KOSPI 200 Braces for Pullback (Perfect Timing!)

The week after this insight was published, the KOSPI 200 started to fall (that was one of the possible scenarios analyzed). This Monday, as short...

Nico Rosti

US reciprocal tariffs announcement caused significant declines in Asia-Pacific markets, impacting South Korea with the KOSPI 200 implied...