Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Copper prices continue to remain above 13,000 USD/ton despite a small correction. Stocks have declined much more amid market weakness, resulting in better risk-reward on copper names.</li>
<li>Stocks that stand out are <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">ERO Copper (ERO US)</a>, trading at 6.8x PE and 4.4x EV-EBITDA, and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lundin Mining (LUN CN)</a>, 16.4x PE and 6.9x EV-EBITDA, for how cheap they are.</li>
<li>The bellwether copper pure plays are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> at 7.8x EV-EBITDA and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> at 13.5x EV-EBITDA. All numbers based on FY26e copper at 13,000 USD/ton.</li>
</ul>


Copper prices continue to remain above 13,000 USD/ton despite a small correction. Stocks have declined much more amid market weakness, resulting in better risk-reward on copper names.
Stocks that stand out are ERO Copper (ERO US), trading at 6.8x PE and 4.4x EV-EBITDA, and Lundin Mining (LUN CN), 16.4x PE and 6.9x EV-EBITDA, for how cheap they are.
The bellwether copper pure plays are Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) at 7.8x EV-EBITDA and Southern Copper (SCCO US) at 13.5x EV-EBITDA. All numbers based on FY26e copper at 13,000 USD/ton.


Copper Price Correction: Four Stocks To Look At

<ul>
<li>
 FY26E net income of US$401M (+52% YoY) reflects realized copper at ~$5.90/lb and full-year Tucumã contribution; EBITDA margin widens to 61.5%, the highest in the company's history.</li>
<li>
Three-Mine platform + Furnas optionality: Caraíba (long-life underground Cu), Tucumã (high-margin open-pit Cu ramping to 35-40 kt), and Xavantina (ultra-high-grade Au) generate diversified cash flows, while Furnas provides optionality</li>
<li>
 ERO trades at 4.5x FY26E EV/EBITDA and 6.9x P/E at current copper prices, a substantial discount to copper peers (7-9x). Net debt leverage will pave the way for capital returns.</li>
</ul>



 FY26E net income of US$401M (+52% YoY) reflects realized copper at ~$5.90/lb and full-year Tucumã contribution; EBITDA margin widens to 61.5%, the highest in the company's history.

Three-Mine platform + Furnas optionality: Caraíba (long-life underground Cu), Tucumã (high-margin open-pit Cu ramping to 35-40 kt), and Xavantina (ultra-high-grade Au) generate diversified cash flows, while Furnas provides optionality

 ERO trades at 4.5x FY26E EV/EBITDA and 6.9x P/E at current copper prices, a substantial discount to copper peers (7-9x). Net debt leverage will pave the way for capital returns.


Ero Copper (ERO US): A 4.5x EV-EBITDA Pure Copper Play With Growth Is Rare

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Jimblebar inventory drawdowns suggest Chinese mills are rotating back toward BHP’s higher-volume Pilbara blend after temporary feedstock adjustments.</li>
<li>BHP is expanding copper production while several global mining peers continue cutting guidance and struggling with operational execution pressures.</li>
<li>Markets are increasingly rewarding BHP’s scale, execution and commodity exposure through stronger earnings revisions and price target upgrades. </li>
</ul>


Jimblebar inventory drawdowns suggest Chinese mills are rotating back toward BHP’s higher-volume Pilbara blend after temporary feedstock adjustments.
BHP is expanding copper production while several global mining peers continue cutting guidance and struggling with operational execution pressures.
Markets are increasingly rewarding BHP’s scale, execution and commodity exposure through stronger earnings revisions and price target upgrades. 


The Market Repricing Around BHP May Only Be Getting Started

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freeport-mcmoran-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12491:1" rel="noopener">Freeport McMoRan's (FCX US)</a> Grasberg mine, which was scheduled to return to full production in 2027, <a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/freeport-indonesia-adjusts-grasberg-production-recovery-full-resumption-delayed-until-2028-6109926" target="_blank" rel="noopener">has now pushed its recovery to </a><a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/freeport-indonesia-adjusts-grasberg-production-recovery-full-resumption-delayed-until-2028-6109926" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2028</a>. The mine is running at 40-50% utilization.</li>
<li>Further pressure on the cost side as Indonesia proposed a step-up in royalties in gold, copper, and tin mining. We are already witnessing <a href="https://news.metal.com/newscontent/103887752-SMM-Copper-Flash-High-Diesel-Power-Generation-Costs-in-DRC-Put-SX-EW-Copper-Smelters-Under-Pressure" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rising fuel prices</a>/<a href="https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/metals/041526-chinas-sulfuric-acid-restrictions-set-to-squeeze-miners" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lower sulfuric acid supplies</a>. </li>
<li>We see that elevated copper prices are resulting in great Q1 results from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lundin-mining-corp-92352503-3781-4fcb-a4db-62e6f6343783" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25356:1" rel="noopener">Lundin Mining (LUN CN)</a> </li>
</ul>



Freeport McMoRan's (FCX US) Grasberg mine, which was scheduled to return to full production in 2027, has now pushed its recovery to 2028. The mine is running at 40-50% utilization.
Further pressure on the cost side as Indonesia proposed a step-up in royalties in gold, copper, and tin mining. We are already witnessing rising fuel prices/lower sulfuric acid supplies. 
We see that elevated copper prices are resulting in great Q1 results from Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) / Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Lundin Mining (LUN CN) 


Grasberg Slips, Copper Rips: Sulfuric Acid Shortages and Diesel Costs Add Fuel

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

All regions—both geographic and economic—share a common through-line: bullish technicals. And we expect this trend to continue, an outlook supported by a cast of multi-year base patterns (esp. in Europe and Japan), weakness in defensive sectors, and strength in cyclicals. In today’s report we highlight the follow themes:<ul><li>Buy energy, miners. Discussed above... see pages 3-6</li><li>Autos are strengthening. Developed market auto stocks, a lagging group for the past three years, present an opportunity. Names like BMW (BMW-DE), Ford (F), Peugeot (UG-FR), and Toyota (TM) are breaking out/bullishly inflecting... see pages 7-8</li></ul>

All regions—both geographic and economic—share a common through-line: bullish technicals. And we expect this trend to continue, an outlook supported by a cast of multi-year base patterns (esp. in Europe and Japan), weakness in defensive sectors, and strength in cyclicals. In today’s report we highlight the follow themes:Buy energy, miners. Discussed above... see pages 3-6Autos are strengthening. Developed market auto stocks, a lagging group for the past three years, present an opportunity. Names like BMW (BMW-DE), Ford (F), Peugeot (UG-FR), and Toyota (TM) are breaking out/bullishly inflecting... see pages 7-8

Int'l Compass: Inflation Trade Is Gathering Steam -- Buy Energy, Miners, Autos; Stay Overweight EM

Canada

Lundin Mining Corporation is a diversified base metals mining company with operations in Chile, Portugal, Sweden, Spain and the United States, producing copper, zinc, lead and nickel. The Company holds interest in the Tenke Fungurume copper/cobalt mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo and a cobalt refinery located in Kokkola, Finland.

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Lundin Mining (LUN CN)

Copper Price Correction: Four Stocks To Look At

We look at four stocks post the correction in share prices, provide a sensitivity analysis for different copper prices, and present a base-case...

Sameer Taneja

Ero Copper (ERO US): A 4.5x EV-EBITDA Pure Copper Play With Growth Is Rare

Brazil's copper champion exits a multi-year capex supercycle into an era of surging free cash flow powered by record copper prices. 4.5x EV-EBITDA...

Sameer Taneja

The Market Repricing Around BHP May Only Be Getting Started

Operational momentum, tightening copper markets and sustained earnings upgrades continue strengthening BHP’s position within the global mining sector.

Mint Finance

Grasberg Slips, Copper Rips: Sulfuric Acid Shortages and Diesel Costs Add Fuel

Bullish on copper for 2026/2027: Grasberg delays, rising diesel costs, and sulfuric acid shortages tighten supply, widening the deficit.

Sameer Taneja

Int'l Compass: Inflation Trade Is Gathering Steam -- Buy Energy, Miners, Autos; Stay Overweight EM

All regions—both geographic and economic—share a common through-line: bullish technicals. And we expect this trend to continue, an outlook...

Vermilion Research

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