Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Commercial paper outstanding in the US issued by non-financials is at its highest levels in the most recent week, since at least early FY23</li>
<li>The growth rate of CP outstanding in the US, from companies that make stuff, not banks, is growing at 10% YoY</li>
<li>This is another indicator of relatively strong underlying economics in the US, like what we see with HFD for US banks with C&amp;I and Other Loans To Non FI's</li>
</ul>


Commercial paper outstanding in the US issued by non-financials is at its highest levels in the most recent week, since at least early FY23
The growth rate of CP outstanding in the US, from companies that make stuff, not banks, is growing at 10% YoY
This is another indicator of relatively strong underlying economics in the US, like what we see with HFD for US banks with C&amp;I and Other Loans To Non FI's


US Banks & Economy - Commercial Paper Outstanding in Recent Week, Is Highest of Any Week in Series

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the June 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two regular changes in June 2025. There are also multiple live spin-off and M&amp;A events which may trigger intra-review index changes near-term. Check the Leaderboards for those.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in June 2025. There are also multiple live spin-off and M&amp;A events which may trigger intra-review index changes near-term. Check the Leaderboards for those.


[Quiddity Index May25] S&P500/600 Jun25 Rebal: Lots of Intraview Changes Still Possible

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a> is forecasted to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/discover-financial-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11966:1" rel="noopener">Discover Financial Services (DFS US)</a> in S&amp;P500 on 19 May following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capital-one-financial-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:255:1" rel="noopener">Capital One's</a> approved acquisition.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crh-plc-054117b2-cd70-470a-9efc-8f6fab2c83ec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28655:1" rel="noopener">CRH (CRH US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coinbase-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32227:1" rel="noopener">Coinbase Global (COIN US)</a> are forecasted to be added by June-July following the expected acquisitions of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kellogg-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16090:1" rel="noopener">Kellogg Co (K US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ansys-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15473:1" rel="noopener">Ansys Inc (ANSS US)</a>. </li>
<li>Zero changes are forecasted for S&amp;P500 at the June 2025 review due to limited strong addition candidates which will be selected as replacements of upcoming acquisitions.</li>
</ul>



AppLovin (APP US) is forecasted to replace Discover Financial Services (DFS US) in S&amp;P500 on 19 May following Capital One's approved acquisition.

CRH (CRH US) and Coinbase Global (COIN US) are forecasted to be added by June-July following the expected acquisitions of Kellogg Co (K US) and Ansys Inc (ANSS US). 
Zero changes are forecasted for S&amp;P500 at the June 2025 review due to limited strong addition candidates which will be selected as replacements of upcoming acquisitions.


S&P500: Additions In May & June 2025 Following Capital One's Approved Acquisition

<ul>
<li>In the last week of April, US banks saw USD22bn higher 'loans to non-depository financial institutions. Much of this will be C&amp;I through private credit. </li>
<li>Total cash holdings moved down in the same week from USD3,240bn to USD3,072bn, marking a significant delta in risk aversion - toward risk, not away.</li>
<li>Deposits are still high at USD18,058bn which can move back into markets, where non-large time deposits appear to be doing this, over month of April</li>
</ul>


In the last week of April, US banks saw USD22bn higher 'loans to non-depository financial institutions. Much of this will be C&amp;I through private credit. 
Total cash holdings moved down in the same week from USD3,240bn to USD3,072bn, marking a significant delta in risk aversion - toward risk, not away.
Deposits are still high at USD18,058bn which can move back into markets, where non-large time deposits appear to be doing this, over month of April


US Banks - Last Week of April Saw $22bn Loan Rise, With Cash Down $168bn

<ul>
<li>The most recent Fed Financial Stability Report released on 25 April shows that Other Lending to FI's for banks includes Private Credit </li>
<li>This means that the C&amp;I loan category of banks is partly diluted, where banks are providing this lending via private lenders </li>
<li>The implications are highly positive to the understanding of underlying credit demand, economic strength, and bank health</li>
</ul>


The most recent Fed Financial Stability Report released on 25 April shows that Other Lending to FI's for banks includes Private Credit 
This means that the C&amp;I loan category of banks is partly diluted, where banks are providing this lending via private lenders 
The implications are highly positive to the understanding of underlying credit demand, economic strength, and bank health


US Banks - Granular Data in Fed Report, Shows Private Credit Growth Is Strong

United States

Capital One Financial Corporation is a diversified bank. The Bank, through its subsidiaries, offers a broad spectrum of financial products and services to consumers, small businesses and commercial clients both domestically and internationally.  Capital One has bank locations in Connecticut, Louisiana, New Jersey, New York, and Texas.

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Capital One Financial (COF US)

US Banks & Economy - Commercial Paper Outstanding in Recent Week, Is Highest of Any Week in Series

US commercial paper outstanding issued by non-financials is at highest level in most recent week since Fed's time series, growth is 10% YoY, this...

Daniel Tabbush

[Quiddity Index May25] S&P500/600 Jun25 Rebal: Lots of Intraview Changes Still Possible

The S&P500 has a couple of possible changes at the regular rebalance and more intra-review changes after. That means S&P600 DELs. We like those...

Travis Lundy

S&P500: Additions In May & June 2025 Following Capital One's Approved Acquisition

COIN will be added to S&P500 at the close of 16 May as a replacement to the DFS acquisition. CRH has been removed from the addition candidates...

Dimitris Ioannidis

US Banks - Last Week of April Saw $22bn Loan Rise, With Cash Down $168bn

Weekly data from US banks shows very strong rise in loans to other FIs and an exceptionally strong decline in total cash assets. View this...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Granular Data in Fed Report, Shows Private Credit Growth Is Strong

There is granular data from Fed showing that loans to nonbank FI's will include CLOs and private credit. This means that C&I lending is stronger...

Daniel Tabbush

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