Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was "quite possible" the lows were in.</li>
<li>Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.</li>
<li>China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was "quite possible" the lows were in.
Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.
China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.


Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tencent reported C1Q24 revenue, IFRS operating profit, and IFRS net income in-line, 9.1%, 26% vs. our estimates and in-line, 16%, 21% vs. consensus;</li>
<li>Game revenues were below our expectations while advertising was above, leading to a gross margin beat of 2.73ppt, powered by video account and AI. </li>
<li>We raised our TP to HK$450 to reflect the shift to better-margin revenue mix and upcoming revenue acceleration.</li>
</ul>


Tencent reported C1Q24 revenue, IFRS operating profit, and IFRS net income in-line, 9.1%, 26% vs. our estimates and in-line, 16%, 21% vs. consensus;
Game revenues were below our expectations while advertising was above, leading to a gross margin beat of 2.73ppt, powered by video account and AI. 
We raised our TP to HK$450 to reflect the shift to better-margin revenue mix and upcoming revenue acceleration.


[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$450) TP Change]: Market Finally Starting to Recognize Tencent’s Value

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>NTES US : NetEase's &lt;Marvel Rivals&gt; has commenced its first round of testing, with players providing positive feedback.（+）</li>
<li>4689 JP/4755 JP/4385 JP: PayPay QR-code system crashed for three hours (-/+/+)</li>
<li>BABA US /BIDU US/700 HK: China's generative AI starts price war mode, led by ByteDance and High-Flyer（/////）</li>
</ul>


NTES US : NetEase's &lt;Marvel Rivals&gt; has commenced its first round of testing, with players providing positive feedback.（+）
4689 JP/4755 JP/4385 JP: PayPay QR-code system crashed for three hours (-/+/+)
BABA US /BIDU US/700 HK: China's generative AI starts price war mode, led by ByteDance and High-Flyer（/////）


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:NTES US/4689 JP/4755 JP/4385 JP/BABA US /BIDU US/700 HK

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on May 17th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past week, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Hang Seng Bank (11 HK), Swire Pacific (19 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Hang Seng Bank (11 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), Swire Pacific (19 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on May 17th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past week, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Hang Seng Bank (11 HK), Swire Pacific (19 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Hang Seng Bank (11 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), Swire Pacific (19 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (May 17th): Hang Seng Bank, Swire Pacific, Wuxi Biologics

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>Surging by 19.4% since the trough on 19-Apr, the HSI is now only 3.2% shy away from the psychological resistance of 20,000. We look at some potential profit-taking names. </li>
<li>Heavy-Weights like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> are among the best-performing ones YTD and since the trough. Hence they are more exposed, particularly for Meituan.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a> are another two on the list. Their valuations are no longer inexpensive relative to 3-year earnings CAGR.</li>
</ul>


Surging by 19.4% since the trough on 19-Apr, the HSI is now only 3.2% shy away from the psychological resistance of 20,000. We look at some potential profit-taking names. 
Heavy-Weights like Meituan (3690 HK) and Tencent (700 HK) are among the best-performing ones YTD and since the trough. Hence they are more exposed, particularly for Meituan.

Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK) and ENN Energy (2688 HK) are another two on the list. Their valuations are no longer inexpensive relative to 3-year earnings CAGR.


HK Strategy: To Sell or Not to Sell, that Is the Question

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

Price Gauge
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Tencent (700 HK)

Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI; EM and China Continue to Lead; U.S. Dollar (DXY), WTI Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Rolling Over; Buys in: Comms,...

Vermilion Research

[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$450) TP Change]: Market Finally Starting to Recognize Tencent’s Value

Tencent's C1Q24 revenue and profit in-line with estimates, boosted by advertising and better-margin revenue mix, leading to raised TP of HK$450.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:NTES US/4689 JP/4755 JP/4385 JP/BABA US /BIDU US/700 HK

NetEase's receives positive feedback during first round of testing, PayPay QR-code system crashes for three hours in Japan.China's generative AI...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (May 17th): Hang Seng Bank, Swire Pacific, Wuxi Biologics

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Hang Seng Bank (11...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Strategy: To Sell or Not to Sell, that Is the Question

HSI surges by 19.4% nearing the 20,000 resistance, potential profit-taking names include Meituan, Tencent, Haidilao, and ENN Energy due to strong...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI; EM and China Continue to Lead; U.S. Dollar (DXY), WTI Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Rolling Over; Buys in: Comms,...

Vermilion Research

[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$450) TP Change]: Market Finally Starting to Recognize Tencent’s Value

​Tencent's C1Q24 revenue and profit in-line with estimates, boosted by advertising and better-margin revenue mix, leading to raised TP of HK$450.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:NTES US/4689 JP/4755 JP/4385 JP/BABA US /BIDU US/700 HK

​NetEase's receives positive feedback during first round of testing, PayPay QR-code system crashes for three hours in Japan.China's generative AI...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (May 17th): Hang Seng Bank, Swire Pacific, Wuxi Biologics

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Hang Seng Bank (11...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Strategy: To Sell or Not to Sell, that Is the Question

​HSI surges by 19.4% nearing the 20,000 resistance, potential profit-taking names include Meituan, Tencent, Haidilao, and ENN Energy due to strong...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Tencent's C1Q24 revenue and profit in-line with estimates, boosted by advertising and better-margin revenue mix, leading to raised TP of HK$450.

NetEase's receives positive feedback during first round of testing, PayPay QR-code system crashes for three hours in Japan.China's generative AI...

HSI surges by 19.4% nearing the 20,000 resistance, potential profit-taking names include Meituan, Tencent, Haidilao, and ENN Energy due to strong...