Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>PTTEP targets 3.5% CAGR petroleum sales growth in 2026–30E, similar to the 2025–29E plan, supported by sustaining core projects and advancing development projects.</li><li>We maintain a Neutral rating and trim 2026 FV to Bt115 (from Bt120) based on a 12.3% required return (Rf 1.23%, MRP 5.61%).</li><li>With the updated 5-year expenditure and sales volume plans, lower Dubai crude prices, and a higher unit cost of USD29–30/bbl, we cut 2025–27E net profit by 14%, 12%, and 4%.</li></ul>

PTTEP targets 3.5% CAGR petroleum sales growth in 2026–30E, similar to the 2025–29E plan, supported by sustaining core projects and advancing development projects.We maintain a Neutral rating and trim 2026 FV to Bt115 (from Bt120) based on a 12.3% required return (Rf 1.23%, MRP 5.61%).With the updated 5-year expenditure and sales volume plans, lower Dubai crude prices, and a higher unit cost of USD29–30/bbl, we cut 2025–27E net profit by 14%, 12%, and 4%.

PTT Exploration And Production Plc. (PTTEP): 5-Year Petroleum Sale Volume & Expenditure Plan

PTT Exploration & Production P / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>3Q25 net profit fell YoY and QoQ, 6% below forecast on higher-than-expected unit costs.</li><li>We maintain a Neutral rating and 2026E FV of Bt120.00, as excess oil supply pressures oil prices and the share price (around 80% correlated with oil price).</li><li>Sales volume is expected to peak in 4Q25E at 540–560kboe/d, vs the 2025 target of 510–515kboe/d.</li></ul>

3Q25 net profit fell YoY and QoQ, 6% below forecast on higher-than-expected unit costs.We maintain a Neutral rating and 2026E FV of Bt120.00, as excess oil supply pressures oil prices and the share price (around 80% correlated with oil price).Sales volume is expected to peak in 4Q25E at 540–560kboe/d, vs the 2025 target of 510–515kboe/d.

PTT Exploration And Production Plc. (PTTEP): 3Q25E Earnings 6% Below Forecast...

<ul><li>We expect 3Q25E net profit to have declined YoY and remained flat QoQ.</li><li>We maintain our cautious view on crude oil prices over the next two years, expecting Dubai crude to decline from USD70/bbl in 2025E to USD65/bbl in 2027E.</li><li>Petroleum sales volume is expected to accelerate in 4Q25E, marking the year’s peak at 550–560kboe/d, in line with the company’s full-year guidance of 512–517kboe/d.</li></ul>

We expect 3Q25E net profit to have declined YoY and remained flat QoQ.We maintain our cautious view on crude oil prices over the next two years, expecting Dubai crude to decline from USD70/bbl in 2025E to USD65/bbl in 2027E.Petroleum sales volume is expected to accelerate in 4Q25E, marking the year’s peak at 550–560kboe/d, in line with the company’s full-year guidance of 512–517kboe/d.

PTT EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION Plc. (PTTEP): Expect Modest 3Q25E Earnings...

<ul><li>Core profit and net profit in 2Q25 were 6% and 7% above expectations, respectively, but still declined YoY and QoQ.</li><li>We maintain our view expecting a downward trend in the unit margin and profit over 2025-27E, with 2Y core EPS forecast to decline at a -4.2% CAGR, amid a high correlation of around 80% between the share price and crude oil prices, which remain exposed to trade war risks.</li><li>We maintain our Neutral rating and 12M fair value at Bt112.50 (with a required return of 14.9%).</li></ul>

Core profit and net profit in 2Q25 were 6% and 7% above expectations, respectively, but still declined YoY and QoQ.We maintain our view expecting a downward trend in the unit margin and profit over 2025-27E, with 2Y core EPS forecast to decline at a -4.2% CAGR, amid a high correlation of around 80% between the share price and crude oil prices, which remain exposed to trade war risks.We maintain our Neutral rating and 12M fair value at Bt112.50 (with a required return of 14.9%).

PTT EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION - Slightly Upbeat Core Profit

<ul><li>We expect 2Q25E profit to decline both YoY and QoQ. We also maintain our view that the unit margin and profit will remain on a downward trend during 2025-27E (with 2-year core EPS growth at a -4.2% CAGR), amid global economic fragility and weak oil demand, which continues to pressure oil prices.</li><li>PTTEP’s share price has an 80% correlation with crude oil prices, and we still see no positive catalysts.</li><li>We maintain our Neutral rating but revise down the 12M FV to Bt112.50 (from Bt115.50), based on a required return of 14.9%, reflecting adjustments to our macroeconomic assumptions (Rf, MRP) and the beta, following a change in the regression timeframe</li></ul>

We expect 2Q25E profit to decline both YoY and QoQ. We also maintain our view that the unit margin and profit will remain on a downward trend during 2025-27E (with 2-year core EPS growth at a -4.2% CAGR), amid global economic fragility and weak oil demand, which continues to pressure oil prices.PTTEP’s share price has an 80% correlation with crude oil prices, and we still see no positive catalysts.We maintain our Neutral rating but revise down the 12M FV to Bt112.50 (from Bt115.50), based on a required return of 14.9%, reflecting adjustments to our macroeconomic assumptions (Rf, MRP) and the beta, following a change in the regression timeframe

PTT Exploration and Production - Weak 2Q25E Earnings; 2Y Core Profit Growth Trending Down

Thailand

PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited explores for crude oil and natural gas, develops fields for production, and produces oil and natural gas. The Company is a subsidiary of the Petroleum Authority of Thailand.

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PTT E&P (PTTEP TB)

PTT Exploration And Production Plc. (PTTEP): 5-Year Petroleum Sale Volume & Expenditure Plan

PTTEP targets 3.5% CAGR petroleum sales growth in 2026–30E, similar to the 2025–29E plan, supported by sustaining core projects and advancing...

Krungthai XSpring

PTT Exploration And Production Plc. (PTTEP): 3Q25E Earnings 6% Below Forecast...

We maintain a Neutral rating and 2026E FV of Bt120.00, as excess oil supply pressures oil prices and the share price (around 80% correlated with...

Krungthai XSpring

PTT EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION Plc. (PTTEP): Expect Modest 3Q25E Earnings...

We maintain our cautious view on crude oil prices over the next two years, expecting Dubai crude to decline from USD70/bbl in 2025E to USD65/bbl in...

Krungthai XSpring

PTT EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION - Slightly Upbeat Core Profit

We maintain our view expecting a downward trend in the unit margin and profit over 2025-27E, with 2Y core EPS forecast to decline at a -4.2% CAGR,...

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

PTT Exploration And Production Plc. (PTTEP): 5-Year Petroleum Sale Volume & Expenditure Plan

PTTEP targets 3.5% CAGR petroleum sales growth in 2026–30E, similar to the 2025–29E plan, supported by sustaining core projects and advancing...

Krungthai XSpring

PTT Exploration And Production Plc. (PTTEP): 3Q25E Earnings 6% Below Forecast...

We maintain a Neutral rating and 2026E FV of Bt120.00, as excess oil supply pressures oil prices and the share price (around 80% correlated with...

Krungthai XSpring

PTT EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION Plc. (PTTEP): Expect Modest 3Q25E Earnings...

We maintain our cautious view on crude oil prices over the next two years, expecting Dubai crude to decline from USD70/bbl in 2025E to USD65/bbl in...

Krungthai XSpring

PTT EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION - Slightly Upbeat Core Profit

We maintain our view expecting a downward trend in the unit margin and profit over 2025-27E, with 2Y core EPS forecast to decline at a -4.2% CAGR,...

Krungthai XSpring

PTT Exploration and Production - Weak 2Q25E Earnings; 2Y Core Profit Growth Trending Down

We maintain our Neutral rating but revise down the 12M FV to Bt112.50 (from Bt115.50), based on a required return of 14.9%, reflecting adjustments...

Krungthai XSpring