Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils demand could see earlier-than-usual seasonal slowdown in face of weak lube consumption and improving supply.</li><li>Asia’s lube demand falls at end-Q1 2025 from year-earlier levels.</li><li>Demand weakness shows signs of extending into Q2 2025 as uncertainty about US tariffs compounds signs of slowing economic growth.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils demand could see earlier-than-usual seasonal slowdown in face of weak lube consumption and improving supply.Asia’s lube demand falls at end-Q1 2025 from year-earlier levels.Demand weakness shows signs of extending into Q2 2025 as uncertainty about US tariffs compounds signs of slowing economic growth.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 19 May

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The HSI has already recovered to 2.2% above the pre-"reciprocal tariff" level, and the top 10 best-performing constituents have registered an average return of 15.6%.</li>
<li>Despite so, there are still 40 under-performing stocks, with 32 of them remain in the negative zone with an average of 4.8% loss. </li>
<li>Among them, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33488:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-electronic-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1927:1" rel="noopener">BYD Electronics (285 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> look well-positioned to catch up.</li>
</ul>


The HSI has already recovered to 2.2% above the pre-"reciprocal tariff" level, and the top 10 best-performing constituents have registered an average return of 15.6%.
Despite so, there are still 40 under-performing stocks, with 32 of them remain in the negative zone with an average of 4.8% loss. 
Among them, ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK), Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK), BYD Electronics (285 HK), and Meituan (3690 HK) look well-positioned to catch up.


HK Strategy: What Are Some of the HSI Laggards to Pick Up?

<ul><li>Global base oils prices mostly extend rise vs feedstock/competing fuel prices.</li><li>Sustained price-strength for most grades points to tight supply-demand fundamentals.</li><li>Price-strength incentivizes refiners to maintain or raise output.</li></ul>

Global base oils prices mostly extend rise vs feedstock/competing fuel prices.Sustained price-strength for most grades points to tight supply-demand fundamentals.Price-strength incentivizes refiners to maintain or raise output.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 12 May

<ul><li>Asia’s Group II base oils prices hold in relatively narrow range relative to US export prices, especially for heavy grades.</li><li>Steady price levels leave arbitrage from Asia to Americas hard to work, pointing to limited surplus supply.</li><li>US Group II light-grade export prices hold in narrow range or strengthen relative to CFR India prices since start of Q2 2025.</li></ul>

Asia’s Group II base oils prices hold in relatively narrow range relative to US export prices, especially for heavy grades.Steady price levels leave arbitrage from Asia to Americas hard to work, pointing to limited surplus supply.US Group II light-grade export prices hold in narrow range or strengthen relative to CFR India prices since start of Q2 2025.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 12 May

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils prices hold firm vs feedstock/gasoil prices, especially for heavy grades.</li><li>Price-strength suggests supply-tightness continues to outweigh weaker-than-expected demand.</li><li>That dynamic could ease as weak demand cushions impact of recent/ongoing plant maintenance, speeds up refiners’ stock-replenishment once plants resume operations.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils prices hold firm vs feedstock/gasoil prices, especially for heavy grades.Price-strength suggests supply-tightness continues to outweigh weaker-than-expected demand.That dynamic could ease as weak demand cushions impact of recent/ongoing plant maintenance, speeds up refiners’ stock-replenishment once plants resume operations.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 12 May

China

PetroChina Company Limited explores, develops, and produces crude oil and natural gas.  The Company also refines, transports, and distributes crude oil and petroleum products, produces and sells chemicals, and transmits, markets and sells natural gas.

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PetroChina (857 HK)

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 19 May

Asia’s base oils demand could see earlier-than-usual seasonal slowdown in face of weak lube consumption and improving supply. Asia’s lube demand...

Base Oil News

HK Strategy: What Are Some of the HSI Laggards to Pick Up?

HSI has rebounded above pre-reciprocal tariff levels, with top stocks up 15.6%. However, 32 stocks remain negative, with ZTO Express, Budweiser...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 12 May

Global base oils prices mostly extend rise vs feedstock/competing fuel prices. Sustained price-strength for most grades points to tight...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 12 May

Asia’s Group II base oils prices hold in relatively narrow range relative to US export prices, especially for heavy grades. Steady price levels...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 12 May

Asia’s base oils prices hold firm vs feedstock/gasoil prices, especially for heavy grades. Price-strength suggests supply-tightness continues to...

Base Oil News

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 19 May

Asia’s base oils demand could see earlier-than-usual seasonal slowdown in face of weak lube consumption and improving supply. Asia’s lube demand...

Base Oil News

HK Strategy: What Are Some of the HSI Laggards to Pick Up?

​HSI has rebounded above pre-reciprocal tariff levels, with top stocks up 15.6%. However, 32 stocks remain negative, with ZTO Express, Budweiser...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 12 May

Global base oils prices mostly extend rise vs feedstock/competing fuel prices. Sustained price-strength for most grades points to tight...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 12 May

Asia’s Group II base oils prices hold in relatively narrow range relative to US export prices, especially for heavy grades. Steady price levels...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 12 May

Asia’s base oils prices hold firm vs feedstock/gasoil prices, especially for heavy grades. Price-strength suggests supply-tightness continues to...

Base Oil News

HSI has rebounded above pre-reciprocal tariff levels, with top stocks up 15.6%. However, 32 stocks remain negative, with ZTO Express, Budweiser...