Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils demand likely to be more muted as unusually extreme market volatility boosts incentive for buyers to keep inventories at lower levels.</li><li>Uncertainty about outlook and sharp fall in crude oil prices so far this month add to incentive to hold back.</li><li>Blenders could face lower-than-usual inventories at start of Q2 2025 because of tight supply and firm demand in Q1 2025.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils demand likely to be more muted as unusually extreme market volatility boosts incentive for buyers to keep inventories at lower levels.Uncertainty about outlook and sharp fall in crude oil prices so far this month add to incentive to hold back.Blenders could face lower-than-usual inventories at start of Q2 2025 because of tight supply and firm demand in Q1 2025.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 14 April

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" have led to over 10% fall in the Hong Kong market, but there are some names that only came down by 3.2% on average.</li>
<li>Their characteristics are: 1.) domestically focused, 2.) net cash position, 3.) secure demand, 4.) consumption downgrade beneficiary, and 5.) good dividends.</li>
<li>These stocks are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinhua-winshare-publishing-media-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15072:1" rel="noopener">Xinhua Winshare (811 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kunlun-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10054:1" rel="noopener">Kunlun Energy (135 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-east-education-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27843:1" rel="noopener">China East Education (667 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" have led to over 10% fall in the Hong Kong market, but there are some names that only came down by 3.2% on average.
Their characteristics are: 1.) domestically focused, 2.) net cash position, 3.) secure demand, 4.) consumption downgrade beneficiary, and 5.) good dividends.
These stocks are Xinhua Winshare (811 HK), Lonking Holdings (3339 HK), Kunlun Energy (135 HK), Mixue Group (2097 HK), and China East Education (667 HK). 


China & HK Strategy: Which Stocks Will Thrive?

<ul><li>Global base oils prices face growing upward pressure versus feedstock/diesel prices following slump in crude oil prices.</li><li>Firming base oils premium points to tightening supply and rising demand, incentivizing refiners to maintain or raise output.</li><li>Recent slump in crude oil prices reflects concern about slowdown in global economic activity and subsequent drop in demand.</li></ul>

Global base oils prices face growing upward pressure versus feedstock/diesel prices following slump in crude oil prices.Firming base oils premium points to tightening supply and rising demand, incentivizing refiners to maintain or raise output.Recent slump in crude oil prices reflects concern about slowdown in global economic activity and subsequent drop in demand.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 April

<ul><li>US Group II base oils export price-discount to CFR India prices widens further through March 2025 even ahead of imposition of US tariffs and slump in crude oil prices.</li><li>US Group I brightstock export price flips to rare discount to CFR India price in recent weeks.</li><li>Ongoing weakness of US export prices points to weaker-than-usual domestic demand.</li></ul>

US Group II base oils export price-discount to CFR India prices widens further through March 2025 even ahead of imposition of US tariffs and slump in crude oil prices.US Group I brightstock export price flips to rare discount to CFR India price in recent weeks.Ongoing weakness of US export prices points to weaker-than-usual domestic demand.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 7 April

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils prices resume rise versus feedstock/gasoil prices.</li><li>Rising margins point to still-firm supply-demand fundamentals at start of Q2 2025.</li><li>That dynamic could change in coming weeks if economic growth slows, compounding typical seasonal dip in demand from end of second quarter.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils prices resume rise versus feedstock/gasoil prices.Rising margins point to still-firm supply-demand fundamentals at start of Q2 2025.That dynamic could change in coming weeks if economic growth slows, compounding typical seasonal dip in demand from end of second quarter.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 April

China

PetroChina Company Limited explores, develops, and produces crude oil and natural gas.  The Company also refines, transports, and distributes crude oil and petroleum products, produces and sells chemicals, and transmits, markets and sells natural gas.

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PetroChina (857 HK)

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 14 April

Asia’s base oils demand likely to be more muted as unusually extreme market volatility boosts incentive for buyers to keep inventories at lower...

Base Oil News

China & HK Strategy: Which Stocks Will Thrive?

The stocks with a domestic focus, cash position, secure demand, consumption benefits, and high dividends are more insulated: Xinhua Winshare,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 April

Global base oils prices face growing upward pressure versus feedstock/diesel prices following slump in crude oil prices. Firming base oils premium...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 7 April

US Group II base oils export price-discount to CFR India prices widens further through March 2025 even ahead of imposition of US tariffs and slump...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 April

Asia’s base oils prices resume rise versus feedstock/gasoil prices. Rising margins point to still-firm supply-demand fundamentals at start of Q2...

Base Oil News

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