Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was a net seller the prior week for HK$1.5bn, the first week in 29 where SB was a net seller. It was all ETFs. Stocks were a net buy.</li>
<li>This week, they reverted to net buying. Financials and Utilities were strong net buys. ETFs again a net sell. Total SOUTHBOUND volumes also picked up. </li>
<li>SOEs, SOE Banks, Energy, Utilities, and finally <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> saw net buying after salutary earnings.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was a net seller the prior week for HK$1.5bn, the first week in 29 where SB was a net seller. It was all ETFs. Stocks were a net buy.
This week, they reverted to net buying. Financials and Utilities were strong net buys. ETFs again a net sell. Total SOUTHBOUND volumes also picked up. 
SOEs, SOE Banks, Energy, Utilities, and finally Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) saw net buying after salutary earnings.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 30 Aug 2024); Weak Econ Data, But a Rebound in SB Net Buys

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>With the review cutoff done, we expect just one change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)</a> ETF in September.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tower-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27037:1" rel="noopener">China Tower (788 HK)</a> is a high probability inclusion while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)</a> is a high probability deletion.</li>
<li>There has been an increase in cumulative excess volume for both stocks in the last few months, but the pace has slowed noticeably in the recent past.</li>
</ul>


With the review cutoff done, we expect just one change for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) ETF in September.

China Tower (788 HK) is a high probability inclusion while China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK) is a high probability deletion.
There has been an increase in cumulative excess volume for both stocks in the last few months, but the pace has slowed noticeably in the recent past.


FXI Rebalance Preview: China Tower (788 HK) Could Replace CICC (3908 HK)

<ul>
<li>A month out from cutoff for the September rebalance, we see one potential change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tower-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27037:1" rel="noopener">China Tower (788 HK)</a> is a potential inclusion while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)</a> should be deleted from the ETF.</li>
<li>Shorts have been dropping in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tower-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27037:1" rel="noopener">China Tower (788 HK)</a> and are near their lows while increasing in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A month out from cutoff for the September rebalance, we see one potential change for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US). 

China Tower (788 HK) is a potential inclusion while China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK) should be deleted from the ETF.
Shorts have been dropping in China Tower (788 HK) and are near their lows while increasing in China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK). 


FXI Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; One More Possible

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>China State Construction International and Sinopec Engineering have short term reversal patterns indicating profit taking from recent advances.</li>
<li>China Resources Cement reverses downtrend with volume indicating some near term gains after reporting that 1st half profit was under pressure.</li>
<li>Yum China continues to show downward pressure given the increasing competition in the retail food segment, while Nongfu Spring collapses on news about the safety of its products.</li>
</ul>


China State Construction International and Sinopec Engineering have short term reversal patterns indicating profit taking from recent advances.
China Resources Cement reverses downtrend with volume indicating some near term gains after reporting that 1st half profit was under pressure.
Yum China continues to show downward pressure given the increasing competition in the retail food segment, while Nongfu Spring collapses on news about the safety of its products.


Technically Speaking: Breakouts & Breakdowns: HONG KONG (July 17)

<ul>
<li>Smoore International, China Communication Services and GDS have Bullish technical signals in a challenging market.</li>
<li>After a 3 year run from the COVID lows, Samsonite has confirmed a Bearish technical signal.</li>
<li>Hautai Securities hits an all time low and becomes a "Catch a Falling Knife" chart.</li>
</ul>


Smoore International, China Communication Services and GDS have Bullish technical signals in a challenging market.
After a 3 year run from the COVID lows, Samsonite has confirmed a Bearish technical signal.
Hautai Securities hits an all time low and becomes a "Catch a Falling Knife" chart.


Technically Speaking: Breakouts and Breakdowns in HONG KONG (July 10)

China

China Tower Corporation Limited operates as a telecommunication company. The Company provides telecommunication towers construction, towers maintenance, ancillary facilities management, and other services. China Tower provides its services throughout China.

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China Tower (788 HK)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 30 Aug 2024); Weak Econ Data, But a Rebound in SB Net Buys

SOUTHBOUND Connect flows picked up to the positive side again after the buy streak was broken the week before. Gross flows picked up. Econ data was...

Travis Lundy

FXI Rebalance Preview: China Tower (788 HK) Could Replace CICC (3908 HK)

China Tower could replace CICC in the FXI in Sep. Shorts have been covering China Tower and increasing in CICC and the cumulative excess volume...

Brian Freitas

FXI Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; One More Possible

There should be 1 change for the FXI ETF in Sep. There could be another change if Wuxi Apptec underperforms some of the other stocks by 3% over the...

Brian Freitas

Technically Speaking: Breakouts & Breakdowns: HONG KONG (July 17)

Sinopec Engineering and China State Construction have entered short term corrections while CRC has broken its downtrend in the near term. Yum...

David Mudd

Technically Speaking: Breakouts and Breakdowns in HONG KONG (July 10)

Share prices of Smoore International, China Communication Services and GDS had Bullish technical signals while Samsonite and Huatai Securities have...

David Mudd

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