Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

Well, that sure escalated quickly.Early last week, in the Insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pre-ipo-esg-analysis-didi-s-exemplary-esg-achievements-eclipsed-by-regulatory-risks-and-uncertainty" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53687" rel="noopener">Pre-IPO ESG Analysis: DiDi's Exemplary ESG Achievements Eclipsed By Regulatory Risks and Uncertainty</a>, I juxtaposed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi's (DIDI US)</a> relatively strong ESG results in areas under its control with serious concerns about regulatory risk outside of its direct control.Late last week, days after DiDi's successful US$4.4 billion initial public offering, Chinese regulators ordered the removal of DiDi's business-critical ride-hailing apps from online app markets, until the company rectifies "serious violations" pertaining to collection and use of customer data.DiDi is down 5.3% so far (delayed open today).Regulatory risk was central to my thesis in the first Insight. I hardly anticipated this, but I referred to regulatory risk as real, near-term, tangible investment risk; not just some fuzzy ESG risk. Given that, I felt obliged to follow up. At the same time, however, this news is covered ad nauseam.No sense in beating a dead horse with a broken record.So, I decided to do something different. That statement about regulatory risk being a real tangible investment risk is primarily based on anecdotal evidence – i.e., when regulators flex their muscle, stocks go down, not up. But "anecdotal" isn't good enough.Which is why I took this opportunity to quantify the impacts of adverse regulatory events in China. Specifically, with event studies measuring abnormal returns around major regulatory events across four broad categories. That's what most of this Insight is about. But back to DiDi for a moment.Regulatory risk and uncertainty for DiDi is much worse today than it was last week. Typically, the opposite would be true; a negative event out in the open is better than a possible event lurking in the shadows. But not this time. Barring an immediate change of heart by the PRC, this is bad.Therefore, downgrading to bearish.

Well, that sure escalated quickly.Early last week, in the Insight Pre-IPO ESG Analysis: DiDi's Exemplary ESG Achievements Eclipsed By Regulatory Risks and Uncertainty, I juxtaposed DiDi's (DIDI US) relatively strong ESG results in areas under its control with serious concerns about regulatory risk outside of its direct control.Late last week, days after DiDi's successful US$4.4 billion initial public offering, Chinese regulators ordered the removal of DiDi's business-critical ride-hailing apps from online app markets, until the company rectifies "serious violations" pertaining to collection and use of customer data.DiDi is down 5.3% so far (delayed open today).Regulatory risk was central to my thesis in the first Insight. I hardly anticipated this, but I referred to regulatory risk as real, near-term, tangible investment risk; not just some fuzzy ESG risk. Given that, I felt obliged to follow up. At the same time, however, this news is covered ad nauseam.No sense in beating a dead horse with a broken record.So, I decided to do something different. That statement about regulatory risk being a real tangible investment risk is primarily based on anecdotal evidence – i.e., when regulators flex their muscle, stocks go down, not up. But "anecdotal" isn't good enough.Which is why I took this opportunity to quantify the impacts of adverse regulatory events in China. Specifically, with event studies measuring abnormal returns around major regulatory events across four broad categories. That's what most of this Insight is about. But back to DiDi for a moment.Regulatory risk and uncertainty for DiDi is much worse today than it was last week. Typically, the opposite would be true; a negative event out in the open is better than a possible event lurking in the shadows. But not this time. Barring an immediate change of heart by the PRC, this is bad.Therefore, downgrading to bearish.

PRC Shows DiDi Who's Boss: An Analysis of Adverse Regulatory Events on Stock Prices

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The year 2018 was not the brightest for cryptocurrencies; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/25895" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25895:1">Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY)</a> fell around 70% during 2018 and top altcoins like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/25896" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25896:1">Ethereum (ETH BGN CURNCY)</a>, Ripple and Bitcoin Cash were also down around 80%, 85% and 95% respectively during last year. While it is difficult to pinpoint a single reason for this, a number of factors including, rising security concerns, increased scrutiny, failed institutional support and Bitcoin Cash hash wars have collectively contributed to this bearish sentiment in the cryptocurrency markets last year.
In this note we take a look at several top cryptocurrency and blockchain developments from last year, to see how they would fare going into 2019.
This is a collaborative report between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/342" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:342">Douglas Kim</a> and myself.

The year 2018 was not the brightest for cryptocurrencies; Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY) fell around 70% during 2018 and top altcoins like Ethereum (ETH BGN CURNCY), Ripple and Bitcoin Cash were also down around 80%, 85% and 95% respectively during last year. While it is difficult to pinpoint a single reason for this, a number of factors including, rising security concerns, increased scrutiny, failed institutional support and Bitcoin Cash hash wars have collectively contributed to this bearish sentiment in the cryptocurrency markets last year.
In this note we take a look at several top cryptocurrency and blockchain developments from last year, to see how they would fare going into 2019.
This is a collaborative report between Douglas Kim and myself. 

This Week in Blockchain & Cryptos: A Bitcoin Reversal; More Red Flags for Bitmain

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/25895" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25895:1">Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY)</a> fell below the USD5,000 level yesterday (18th November) to a new one-year low. At the time this note is published, Bitcoin is trading at around USD5,100, down 20% from last Monday (12th October 2018). Top altcoins like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/25896" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25896:1">Ethereum (ETH BGN CURNCY)</a>, Ripple and Bitcoin Cash are also down 26%, 5% and 32% respectively from last Monday.
The recent sell-off was triggered by the controversial Bitcoin Cash hard fork that took place last week (15th November). The two factions, Bitcoin Cash ABC (or Bitcoin Cash core) and Bitcoin Cash SV (Bitcoin Cash "Satoshi Version), are currently at a "hash war", which seems to be causing FUD across the board.

Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY) fell below the USD5,000 level yesterday (18th November) to a new one-year low. At the time this note is published, Bitcoin is trading at around USD5,100, down 20% from last Monday (12th October 2018). Top altcoins like Ethereum (ETH BGN CURNCY), Ripple and Bitcoin Cash are also down 26%, 5% and 32% respectively from last Monday.
The recent sell-off was triggered by the controversial Bitcoin Cash hard fork that took place last week (15th November). The two factions, Bitcoin Cash ABC (or Bitcoin Cash core) and Bitcoin Cash SV (Bitcoin Cash "Satoshi Version), are currently at a "hash war", which seems to be causing FUD across the board. 

Last Week in Blockchain & Cryptos: Bitcoin Hits a One-Year Low Amidst "Hash Wars"

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/25895" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25895:1">Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY)</a> almost touched the USD7,000 mark last Monday (15th October) with the news on Fidelity's new institutional platform for cryptos and jitters surrounding the stablecoin Tether, but stabilized around the USD6,500 mark later that day and for the rest of the week. Goldman Sachs' investment in the cryptocurrency custodian service BitGo was another positive. 
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/067/300/original/BTC.PNG?1540148387" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="67300"></figure>
<div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">Source: Coinmarketcap</div>
A report published by Glassdoor last week showed that cryptocurrency and blockchain related job openings in the US are up 300% this year. Another report by EY suggested that top ICOs are down 86% this year. 
In Japan, Epoch launched the first crypto-fund IPO and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13003" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13003:1">Fisco Ltd (3807 JP)</a> has decided to acquire the troubled cryptocurrency exchange Zaif.  In South Korea, lawmakers are to decide on ICO legalization in November.

Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY) almost touched the USD7,000 mark last Monday (15th October) with the news on Fidelity's new institutional platform for cryptos and jitters surrounding the stablecoin Tether, but stabilized around the USD6,500 mark later that day and for the rest of the week. Goldman Sachs' investment in the cryptocurrency custodian service BitGo was another positive. 

Source: Coinmarketcap
A report published by Glassdoor last week showed that cryptocurrency and blockchain related job openings in the US are up 300% this year. Another report by EY suggested that top ICOs are down 86% this year. 
In Japan, Epoch launched the first crypto-fund IPO and Fisco Ltd (3807 JP) has decided to acquire the troubled cryptocurrency exchange Zaif.  In South Korea, lawmakers are to decide on ICO legalization in November.  

Last Week in Blockchain & Cryptos: Cryptos Recover with Institutional Support

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

It was reported in several media sources today that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> agreed to invest in Bitmain, the dominant cryptocurrency mining machines maker in the world. In addition to Tencent, it was reported that Softbank as well as China Gold participated in this pre-IPO funding. The exact funding amount has yet to be revealed but it appears that Bitmain will raise about US$1 billion in this pre-IPO funding from Tencent, Softbank, and China Gold. The private market value of Bitmain has risen…

It was reported in several media sources today that Tencent Holdings (700 HK) agreed to invest in Bitmain, the dominant cryptocurrency mining machines maker in the world. In addition to Tencent, it was reported that Softbank as well as China Gold participated in this pre-IPO funding. The exact funding amount has yet to be revealed but it appears that Bitmain will raise about US$1 billion in this pre-IPO funding from Tencent, Softbank, and China Gold. The private market value of Bitmain has risen…

Tencent Invests in Bitmain - Ready for an IPO!

China

Canaan Inc. provides semiconductor solutions. The Company produces custom designed integrated circuit microprocessors for supercomputing hardware. Canaan serves customers worldwide.

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Canaan Inc. (CAN US)

PRC Shows DiDi Who's Boss: An Analysis of Adverse Regulatory Events on Stock Prices

Last week, I wrote about DiDi's regulatory risk. This week, it's worse. Hence the downgrade. But this is mostly an analysis of how regulatory...

Kyle Rudden

This Week in Blockchain & Cryptos: A Bitcoin Reversal; More Red Flags for Bitmain

The year 2018 was not the brightest for cryptocurrencies; Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY) fell around 70% during 2018 and top altcoins like Ethereum (ETH...

Supun Walpola

Last Week in Blockchain & Cryptos: Bitcoin Hits a One-Year Low Amidst "Hash Wars"

Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY) fell below the USD5,000 level yesterday (18th November) to a new one-year low. At the time this note is published, Bitcoin...

Supun Walpola

Last Week in Blockchain & Cryptos: Cryptos Recover with Institutional Support

Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY) almost touched the USD7,000 mark last Monday (15th October) with the news on Fidelity's new institutional platform for...

Supun Walpola

Tencent Invests in Bitmain - Ready for an IPO!

It was reported in several media sources today that Tencent Holdings (700 HK) agreed to invest in Bitmain, the dominant cryptocurrency mining...

Douglas Kim

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