Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timee-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43690:1" rel="noopener">Timee Inc (215A JP)</a> ’s share price has declined 26% over the last five days with the company reporting 3QFY10/2024 earnings on 12th September 2024.</li>
<li>As we expected, top line growth has further slowed down while OPM for the quarter has dropped both QoQ and YoY concerning investors over Timee’s ability to generate sustainable margins.</li>
<li>Timee’s proven business model has attracted Mercari and Sharefull to offer similar services, nevertheless, we would not be too concerned as Timee has the first mover advantage.</li>
</ul>



Timee Inc (215A JP) ’s share price has declined 26% over the last five days with the company reporting 3QFY10/2024 earnings on 12th September 2024.
As we expected, top line growth has further slowed down while OPM for the quarter has dropped both QoQ and YoY concerning investors over Timee’s ability to generate sustainable margins.
Timee’s proven business model has attracted Mercari and Sharefull to offer similar services, nevertheless, we would not be too concerned as Timee has the first mover advantage.


Timee: Market Overreacts to Potential Competition and Drop in Margins

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a> raised around US$259m in Mar 2024. Its IPO lockup is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>TH operates a network of retail stores in Japan that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price (EDLP) model.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Trial Holdings (5882 JP) raised around US$259m in Mar 2024. Its IPO lockup is set to expire soon.
TH operates a network of retail stores in Japan that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price (EDLP) model.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Trial Holdings IPO Lockup - Large Number of Small Holders Hold Around US$400m of Stock

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timee-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43690:1" rel="noopener">Timee Inc (215A JP)</a> raised US$300m in its Japan IPO. The IPO had been a 100% secondary selldown by existing shareholders.</li>
<li>Timee operates an on-demand staffing platform that connects part-time jobseekers with businesses in Japan.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Timee Inc (215A JP) raised US$300m in its Japan IPO. The IPO had been a 100% secondary selldown by existing shareholders.
Timee operates an on-demand staffing platform that connects part-time jobseekers with businesses in Japan.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


Timee IPO Trading - Garnered a Strong Demand, Should Pop

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Mercari's US operations, responsible for major losses, saw a workforce reduction by 45%, potentially preceding a market exit to improve overall margins.</li>
<li>Fintech growth is strong, with Mercari issuing over 3 million credit cards, achieving a 67% YoY credit balance increase, despite current operational losses</li>
<li>Mercari Hallo, an on-demand work platform, has rapidly gained users and business partners, positioning it to capitalize on Japan's growing gig economy.</li>
</ul>


Mercari's US operations, responsible for major losses, saw a workforce reduction by 45%, potentially preceding a market exit to improve overall margins.
Fintech growth is strong, with Mercari issuing over 3 million credit cards, achieving a 67% YoY credit balance increase, despite current operational losses
Mercari Hallo, an on-demand work platform, has rapidly gained users and business partners, positioning it to capitalize on Japan's growing gig economy.


Mercari (4385) | Fintech and Gig Economy as Key Catalysts

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>KKR raised around US$730m via selling some stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> Japan IPO in Sep 2023. Its remaining stake will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.</li>
<li>KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


KKR raised around US$730m via selling some stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) Japan IPO in Sep 2023. Its remaining stake will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.
KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.


Kokusai Electric IPO Lock-Up - KKR Will Be Tempted by the US$2.7bn Release but Might Have to Wait

Japan

Mercari, Inc. operates as an electronic commercial company. The Company offers electronic commercial software, operation management, marketing planning, and other marketplace services. Mercari serves customers worldwide.

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Mercari (4385 JP)

Timee: Market Overreacts to Potential Competition and Drop in Margins

Timee is down 26% post 3Q earnings which has concerned investors over slowing growth and margins. Mercari and Sharefull are offering similar...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Trial Holdings IPO Lockup - Large Number of Small Holders Hold Around US$400m of Stock

Trial Holdings (5882 JP) raised around US$259m in Mar 2024. Its IPO lockup is set to expire soon which will release a large number of small...

Sumeet Singh

Timee IPO Trading - Garnered a Strong Demand, Should Pop

Timee Inc (215A JP) raised US$300m in its Japan IPO. The IPO had been a 100% secondary selldown by existing shareholders.

Clarence Chu

Mercari (4385) | Fintech and Gig Economy as Key Catalysts

Mercari's US operations cut workforce by 45% to improve margins, while fintech growth remains strong and Mercari Hallo gains traction in Japan's...

Mark Chadwick

Kokusai Electric IPO Lock-Up - KKR Will Be Tempted by the US$2.7bn Release but Might Have to Wait

As per media reports, KKR is considering sell half its stake in Kokusai, with the company planning to buyback some shares as well. The company has...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Timee: Market Overreacts to Potential Competition and Drop in Margins

​Timee is down 26% post 3Q earnings which has concerned investors over slowing growth and margins. Mercari and Sharefull are offering similar...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Trial Holdings IPO Lockup - Large Number of Small Holders Hold Around US$400m of Stock

Trial Holdings (5882 JP) raised around US$259m in Mar 2024. Its IPO lockup is set to expire soon which will release a large number of small...

Sumeet Singh

Timee IPO Trading - Garnered a Strong Demand, Should Pop

Timee Inc (215A JP) raised US$300m in its Japan IPO. The IPO had been a 100% secondary selldown by existing shareholders.

Clarence Chu

Mercari (4385) | Fintech and Gig Economy as Key Catalysts

​Mercari's US operations cut workforce by 45% to improve margins, while fintech growth remains strong and Mercari Hallo gains traction in Japan's...

Mark Chadwick

Kokusai Electric IPO Lock-Up - KKR Will Be Tempted by the US$2.7bn Release but Might Have to Wait

As per media reports, KKR is considering sell half its stake in Kokusai, with the company planning to buyback some shares as well. The company has...

Sumeet Singh

Timee is down 26% post 3Q earnings which has concerned investors over slowing growth and margins. Mercari and Sharefull are offering similar...

Mercari's US operations cut workforce by 45% to improve margins, while fintech growth remains strong and Mercari Hallo gains traction in Japan's...