Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> is announcing 2024 Full Year Results on March 21, 2025, with historical data showing substantial price movement following earnings.</li>
<li>The options market is pricing a 5-6% post-announcement move (below historical average), with the March 28 ATM straddle priced at 15.4-15.6, implying a 9.0% break-even by expiration.</li>
<li>Three distinct option strategies are evaluated, considering an expected post-announcement drop in implied volatility.</li>
</ul>



Meituan (3690 HK) is announcing 2024 Full Year Results on March 21, 2025, with historical data showing substantial price movement following earnings.
The options market is pricing a 5-6% post-announcement move (below historical average), with the March 28 ATM straddle priced at 15.4-15.6, implying a 9.0% break-even by expiration.
Three distinct option strategies are evaluated, considering an expected post-announcement drop in implied volatility.


Meituan (3690 HK): Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Chinese startup Manus launched a virtual AI assistant which we believe pointed to an important direction of monetization but the product itself has room for improvement;</li>
<li>Douyin followed BABA to launch AI-based omni-channel-promotion ads tools. The recent trend in China Internet advertising has been AI-driven take rate increases;</li>
<li>NetEase's &lt;Where the Winds Meet&gt; seems to be a winner above our expectations. </li>
</ul>


Chinese startup Manus launched a virtual AI assistant which we believe pointed to an important direction of monetization but the product itself has room for improvement;
Douyin followed BABA to launch AI-based omni-channel-promotion ads tools. The recent trend in China Internet advertising has been AI-driven take rate increases;
NetEase's &lt;Where the Winds Meet&gt; seems to be a winner above our expectations. 


[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 10/52]: Manus Signals the Excitement of Innovation Has Sunk In

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Over the last 25 months, there's been a steady stream of bad news for DTC platform SHEIN</li>
<li>The latest challenges: US tariff chaos &amp; Amazon's launch of its competing platform, Haul 
</li>
<li>Tariff changes &amp; growth of Haul could mean SHEIN IPO gets done at fraction of 2023 valuation</li>
</ul>


Over the last 25 months, there's been a steady stream of bad news for DTC platform SHEIN
The latest challenges: US tariff chaos &amp; Amazon's launch of its competing platform, Haul 

Tariff changes &amp; growth of Haul could mean SHEIN IPO gets done at fraction of 2023 valuation


It's Been a Tough Two+ Years for SHEIN & Its Investors, & Things Don't Get Easier From Here

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a> raised around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.</li>
<li>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Mixue Group (2097 HK) raised around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO.
MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.


MIXUE IPO Trading - Strong Demand, Set to Break the Tea Chain Jinx

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>January air cargo activity moderated; timing of LNY holiday also made for tough comps</li>
<li>January Int'l air cargo tons at US gateways grew far less than inbound (ocean) TEUs</li>
<li>Data from Asian carriers &amp; US gateways indicates low utilization, softening growth</li>
</ul>


January air cargo activity moderated; timing of LNY holiday also made for tough comps
January Int'l air cargo tons at US gateways grew far less than inbound (ocean) TEUs
Data from Asian carriers &amp; US gateways indicates low utilization, softening growth


Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | January: Soft Demand, Low LFs | Ocean Growth > Air Growth (March 2025)

China

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

PDD Holdings (PDD US)

Meituan (3690 HK): Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

First post-earnings trading session for Meituan in Asia today. On Friday, after earnings, the stock lost 6.4% in Europe (9MDA.F, -) and 5.1% in the...

Gaudenz Schneider

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 10/52]: Manus Signals the Excitement of Innovation Has Sunk In

Chinese startups like Manus are exploring AI assistants for monetization, Douyin follows suit with AI-based ads, and NetEase's Where the Winds...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

It's Been a Tough Two+ Years for SHEIN & Its Investors, & Things Don't Get Easier From Here

Over the past two+ years, SHEIN has faced a deluge of developments that threaten its future growth and profitability, especially in the US.

Tracking Traffic

MIXUE IPO Trading - Strong Demand, Set to Break the Tea Chain Jinx

Mixue Group (2097 HK) raised around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO, which was well covered. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | January: Soft Demand, Low LFs | Ocean Growth > Air Growth (March 2025)

Air cargo demand in January 2025 softened, although some of this may be attributed to timing of the LNY holiday. Air cargo utilization is low (and...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Meituan (3690 HK): Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

First post-earnings trading session for Meituan in Asia today. On Friday, after earnings, the stock lost 6.4% in Europe (9MDA.F, -) and 5.1% in the...

Gaudenz Schneider

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 10/52]: Manus Signals the Excitement of Innovation Has Sunk In

​Chinese startups like Manus are exploring AI assistants for monetization, Douyin follows suit with AI-based ads, and NetEase's Where the Winds...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

It's Been a Tough Two+ Years for SHEIN & Its Investors, & Things Don't Get Easier From Here

Over the past two+ years, SHEIN has faced a deluge of developments that threaten its future growth and profitability, especially in the US.

Tracking Traffic

MIXUE IPO Trading - Strong Demand, Set to Break the Tea Chain Jinx

Mixue Group (2097 HK) raised around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO, which was well covered. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | January: Soft Demand, Low LFs | Ocean Growth > Air Growth (March 2025)

Air cargo demand in January 2025 softened, although some of this may be attributed to timing of the LNY holiday. Air cargo utilization is low (and...

Tracking Traffic

Chinese startups like Manus are exploring AI assistants for monetization, Douyin follows suit with AI-based ads, and NetEase's Where the Winds...