HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a>'s 1Q25 adjusted net profit surged 41.1%, suggesting an accelerating momentum. It should continue to outperform <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Good cost management, even as revenue rose 13.2%, has enhanced adjusted EBITDA margin by 5.3pp YoY - this trend will sustain. </li>
<li>More visa convenience will boost inbound and outbound travel. At end-1Q25, net cash equals 14% of market capitalisation, and it can still generate ROE of 12-15%. </li>
</ul>



Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)'s 1Q25 adjusted net profit surged 41.1%, suggesting an accelerating momentum. It should continue to outperform Trip.com Group (9961 HK). 
Good cost management, even as revenue rose 13.2%, has enhanced adjusted EBITDA margin by 5.3pp YoY - this trend will sustain. 
More visa convenience will boost inbound and outbound travel. At end-1Q25, net cash equals 14% of market capitalisation, and it can still generate ROE of 12-15%. 


Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Regaining Momentum, Better Choice than Trip.com

<ul>
<li>The upcoming Chinese New Year travel rush is expected to see air passenger volume reach 80m, a 9.8% increase vs. 2019. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a> is a key beneficiary.</li>
<li>In addition to air ticket booking, Tongcheng can gain from demand for related services and products. The focus on lower-tier cities will make it better satisfy their demand. </li>
<li>Its FY24F PER of 15.2x is lower than sector average of 16.4x, yet 3-year EPS CAGR of 30.7% is higher. Its underperformance against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> can be reversed.</li>
</ul>


The upcoming Chinese New Year travel rush is expected to see air passenger volume reach 80m, a 9.8% increase vs. 2019. Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) is a key beneficiary.
In addition to air ticket booking, Tongcheng can gain from demand for related services and products. The focus on lower-tier cities will make it better satisfy their demand. 
Its FY24F PER of 15.2x is lower than sector average of 16.4x, yet 3-year EPS CAGR of 30.7% is higher. Its underperformance against Trip.com (TCOM US) can be reversed.


<ul>
<li>While adjusted net profit of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-elong-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings Ltd (780 HK)</a> plummeted in 4Q22, the positive momentum in 1Q23 as revealed supports a sharp recovery in FY23.</li>
<li>Its huge exposure to lower-tier cities will fuel outlook while increase in monetisation will support profitability rebound. Success at Blackwhale membership program is another growth engine.  </li>
<li>Management is confident that revenue growth and better efficiency will lead the return of FY23 margin to pre-pandemic levels. Net cash position (12% of share price) is an added strength. </li>
</ul>


While adjusted net profit of Tongcheng Travel Holdings Ltd (780 HK) plummeted in 4Q22, the positive momentum in 1Q23 as revealed supports a sharp recovery in FY23.
Its huge exposure to lower-tier cities will fuel outlook while increase in monetisation will support profitability rebound. Success at Blackwhale membership program is another growth engine.  
Management is confident that revenue growth and better efficiency will lead the return of FY23 margin to pre-pandemic levels. Net cash position (12% of share price) is an added strength. 


Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Best for Capturing Lower-Tier Cities' Growth

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong is showing strong market momentum as consumer staples, consumer discretionary, healthcare and tech surge on increased momentum.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xtep-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18118:1" rel="noopener">Xtep International (1368 HK)</a> had a good 1H24 and benefited from better consumer sentiment. Analysts are upgrading <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) on an improved outlook.</a></li>
<li>Goldman Sachs upgraded their rating on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc-83a27302-cd7d-4e6a-a1de-bcf93eb022c3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32215:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili (9626 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26793:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili (BILI US)</a> to a BUY with improving user MAU/DAU measures and the success of its newly launched game.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong is showing strong market momentum as consumer staples, consumer discretionary, healthcare and tech surge on increased momentum.
Xtep International (1368 HK) had a good 1H24 and benefited from better consumer sentiment. Analysts are upgrading Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) on an improved outlook.
Goldman Sachs upgraded their rating on Bilibili (9626 HK) , Bilibili (BILI US) to a BUY with improving user MAU/DAU measures and the success of its newly launched game.


BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (September 28)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a> is still suffering from cost pressure, with adjusted net profit increased by 10.9% in 2Q24, despite a 48.1% revenue growth.</li>
<li>Both GMV and MPU growth rates have slowed in 2Q24 when compared with 1Q24, and revenue may also decelerate in 2H24 given the higher base for comparison.</li>
<li>The market will need some time to see if the moderating earnings trend will sustain, negatively affecting investor interests. Potential earnings downgrade is also a challenge.</li>
</ul>



Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) is still suffering from cost pressure, with adjusted net profit increased by 10.9% in 2Q24, despite a 48.1% revenue growth.
Both GMV and MPU growth rates have slowed in 2Q24 when compared with 1Q24, and revenue may also decelerate in 2H24 given the higher base for comparison.
The market will need some time to see if the moderating earnings trend will sustain, negatively affecting investor interests. Potential earnings downgrade is also a challenge.


Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Seems like a Cost Issue

China

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited operates as an online travel agency. The Company provides transportation ticketing, accommodation reservation, value added travel products sales, and other services. Tongcheng Travel Holdings provides its services throughout China.

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Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Regaining Momentum, Better Choice than Trip.com

Tongcheng reports a 41.1% surge in 1Q25 adjusted net profit, driven by good cost control. More visa convenience will boost growth, and it is...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): We Are Back

CNY travel rush is expected to boost air passenger volume by 9.8% vs. 2019, benefiting Tongcheng. Its focus on lower-tier cities and strong EPS...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Best for Capturing Lower-Tier Cities' Growth

Positive business momentum in 1Q23 supports a sharp recovery in FY23. Huge exposure to lower-tier cities and increase in monetisation will support...

Osbert Tang, CFA

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (September 28)

Hong Kong market continues to re-rate on the back of PBOC stimulus. XTEP and Tongcheng benefit from improved consumer sentiment and earnings...

David Mudd

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Seems like a Cost Issue

Tongcheng Travel faces cost pressure as adjusted net profit rises by 10.9% in 2Q24 despite strong revenue growth. Slowing growth and potential...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Regaining Momentum, Better Choice than Trip.com

​Tongcheng reports a 41.1% surge in 1Q25 adjusted net profit, driven by good cost control. More visa convenience will boost growth, and it is...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): We Are Back

CNY travel rush is expected to boost air passenger volume by 9.8% vs. 2019, benefiting Tongcheng. Its focus on lower-tier cities and strong EPS...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Best for Capturing Lower-Tier Cities' Growth

Positive business momentum in 1Q23 supports a sharp recovery in FY23. Huge exposure to lower-tier cities and increase in monetisation will support...

Osbert Tang, CFA

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (September 28)

Hong Kong market continues to re-rate on the back of PBOC stimulus. XTEP and Tongcheng benefit from improved consumer sentiment and earnings...

David Mudd

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Seems like a Cost Issue

​Tongcheng Travel faces cost pressure as adjusted net profit rises by 10.9% in 2Q24 despite strong revenue growth. Slowing growth and potential...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Tongcheng reports a 41.1% surge in 1Q25 adjusted net profit, driven by good cost control. More visa convenience will boost growth, and it is...

Tongcheng Travel faces cost pressure as adjusted net profit rises by 10.9% in 2Q24 despite strong revenue growth. Slowing growth and potential...