Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>TSLA US: Model Y Price Reduced by RMB 10,000 In December (-)</li>
<li>LKNCY US :  Starbucks Considers Selling Its China Business. (+)</li>
<li>ZTO US: Parcel volume delivery grew 33.6% yoy in the prior week (+)</li>
</ul>


TSLA US: Model Y Price Reduced by RMB 10,000 In December (-)
LKNCY US :  Starbucks Considers Selling Its China Business. (+)
ZTO US: Parcel volume delivery grew 33.6% yoy in the prior week (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:TSLA US/LKNCY US/NIO US/ZTO US

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Maintain HOLD. Despite NIO’s efforts to lift GPM in 3Q24, its cost control capabilities disappointed us once again.</li><li>With the Onvo L60’s designed GPM and continuous investments in battery swap, we see limited GPM improvement in FY25E despite 45% YoY growth in revenue on our estimates.</li><li>We are of the view that management’s guidance for breakeven in FY26 is too optimistic.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintain HOLD. Despite NIO’s efforts to lift GPM in 3Q24, its cost control capabilities disappointed us once again.With the Onvo L60’s designed GPM and continuous investments in battery swap, we see limited GPM improvement in FY25E despite 45% YoY growth in revenue on our estimates.We are of the view that management’s guidance for breakeven in FY26 is too optimistic.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NIO Inc. (NIO US) - NIO’s Cost Control Disappoints Us Again

<ul>
<li>1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/NIO US/LI US/XPEV US/ZK US/9863 HK:In the 46th week of 2024, market demand is booming and new brands gain market share.(///////////////)</li>
<li>XPEV US: Xpeng's vehicle revenue and gross profit margin exceeded expectations in the third quarter, but service revenue was lower than expected, resulting in lower-than-expected profits.(/)</li>
<li>LKNCY US: Luckin Signs Memorandum for Brazilian Coffee Bean Purchases.(+)</li>
</ul>


1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/NIO US/LI US/XPEV US/ZK US/9863 HK:In the 46th week of 2024, market demand is booming and new brands gain market share.(///////////////)
XPEV US: Xpeng's vehicle revenue and gross profit margin exceeded expectations in the third quarter, but service revenue was lower than expected, resulting in lower-than-expected profits.(/)
LKNCY US: Luckin Signs Memorandum for Brazilian Coffee Bean Purchases.(+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/NIO US/LI US/XPEV US/ZK US/9863 HK/LKNCY US

<ul>
<li>300750 CH/1211 HK/ JKS US/601012 CH/688599 CH/002459 CH:China cancels and reduces export tax rebate for certain China's advantageous products, forcing production capacity to be rationalize and export prices to rise.(///////////)</li>
<li>1810 HK/LI US/NIO US/XPEV US: It is said that Geely Group is preparing to merge its hybrid and pure electric brands under Zeekr（///////）</li>
<li>BEKE US:Mid-November Home Transaction Growth Remains Strong in First-Tier Cities, While Growth in Second- and Third-Tier Cities Slows Down (+)</li>
</ul>


300750 CH/1211 HK/ JKS US/601012 CH/688599 CH/002459 CH:China cancels and reduces export tax rebate for certain China's advantageous products, forcing production capacity to be rationalize and export prices to rise.(///////////)
1810 HK/LI US/NIO US/XPEV US: It is said that Geely Group is preparing to merge its hybrid and pure electric brands under Zeekr（///////）
BEKE US:Mid-November Home Transaction Growth Remains Strong in First-Tier Cities, While Growth in Second- and Third-Tier Cities Slows Down (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:300750 CH/1211 HK/JKS US/601012 CH/688599 CH/002459CH/1810HK/LI/NIO/XPEV/BEKE/ZTO

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Tencent Music Entertainment Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong market sectors outperforming since the stimulus in September are Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare as Utilities, Telecom and Energy lag.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crrc-corp-ltd-461535b2-37ac-4589-b4d9-8b71c06c43b8" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:124:1" rel="noopener">CRRC Corp Ltd H (1766 HK)</a> gets BUY recommendations as its results point to continued strength in the rail equipment sector with passenger volume surging.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36601:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK)</a> reported solid results as it shifts to a pay-to-stream subscription model. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> had a blowout quarter with EV sales surging.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong market sectors outperforming since the stimulus in September are Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare as Utilities, Telecom and Energy lag.

CRRC Corp Ltd H (1766 HK) gets BUY recommendations as its results point to continued strength in the rail equipment sector with passenger volume surging.


Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK) reported solid results as it shifts to a pay-to-stream subscription model. Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) had a blowout quarter with EV sales surging.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (NOVEMBER 18)

China

NIO Inc. manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company offers electric vehicles and parts, as well as provides battery charging services. NIO serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
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NIO (NIO US)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:TSLA US/LKNCY US/NIO US/ZTO US

Tesla reduces Model Y price, Starbucks considers selling China business, ZTO sees 33.6% increase in parcel delivery volume.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

NIO Inc. (NIO US) - NIO’s Cost Control Disappoints Us Again

With the Onvo L60’s designed GPM and continuous investments in battery swap, we see limited GPM improvement in FY25E despite 45% YoY growth in...

CMB International

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/NIO US/LI US/XPEV US/ZK US/9863 HK/LKNCY US

Market demand is booming in 46th week of 2024, new brands gaining share; XPEV's Q3 revenue exceeds expectations but service revenue disappoints;...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:300750 CH/1211 HK/JKS US/601012 CH/688599 CH/002459CH/1810HK/LI/NIO/XPEV/BEKE/ZTO

China cancels export tax rebate, Geely Group to merge electric brands, home transaction growth strong in first-tier cities.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (NOVEMBER 18)

Hong Kong has seen its Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare sectors perform well since the stimulus in September. CRCC has had several buy...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:TSLA US/LKNCY US/NIO US/ZTO US

​Tesla reduces Model Y price, Starbucks considers selling China business, ZTO sees 33.6% increase in parcel delivery volume.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

NIO Inc. (NIO US) - NIO’s Cost Control Disappoints Us Again

With the Onvo L60’s designed GPM and continuous investments in battery swap, we see limited GPM improvement in FY25E despite 45% YoY growth in...

CMB International

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/NIO US/LI US/XPEV US/ZK US/9863 HK/LKNCY US

​Market demand is booming in 46th week of 2024, new brands gaining share; XPEV's Q3 revenue exceeds expectations but service revenue disappoints;...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:300750 CH/1211 HK/JKS US/601012 CH/688599 CH/002459CH/1810HK/LI/NIO/XPEV/BEKE/ZTO

​China cancels export tax rebate, Geely Group to merge electric brands, home transaction growth strong in first-tier cities.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (NOVEMBER 18)

Hong Kong has seen its Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare sectors perform well since the stimulus in September. CRCC has had several buy...

David Mudd

Tesla reduces Model Y price, Starbucks considers selling China business, ZTO sees 33.6% increase in parcel delivery volume.

Market demand is booming in 46th week of 2024, new brands gaining share; XPEV's Q3 revenue exceeds expectations but service revenue disappoints;...

China cancels export tax rebate, Geely Group to merge electric brands, home transaction growth strong in first-tier cities.