Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With the "Postcard" series, our objective is to bring to our readers on-ground insights based on interactions across key channels located in tier 2 and tier 3 locations.</li>
<li>For this Postcard, we traveled to Mandya, a city in the southern state of Karnataka, also known as the 'Sugar City,' on a rented E6 by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>.  </li>
<li>Sectors in focus include Consumer Finance, Mortgage Lenders, and Retailers.</li>
</ul>


With the "Postcard" series, our objective is to bring to our readers on-ground insights based on interactions across key channels located in tier 2 and tier 3 locations.
For this Postcard, we traveled to Mandya, a city in the southern state of Karnataka, also known as the 'Sugar City,' on a rented E6 by BYD (1211 HK).  
Sectors in focus include Consumer Finance, Mortgage Lenders, and Retailers.


Postcard from Mandya | Cruising Around the Sugar City in a BYD

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Following on from our previous note, we now identify inexpensive consistent compounders from the small and mid-cap universe in Asia ($1 - $5 bn in market capitalization).</li>
<li>28 stocks are on our list - 18 from onshore China, 5 from India, 2 each from Japan and Taiwan and 1 from Hong Kong.</li>
<li>Industrials, technology, healthcare and financials dominate the list. The list of large and mid-cap compounders shall largely form the backbone of our top stock choices for 2025.</li>
</ul>


Following on from our previous note, we now identify inexpensive consistent compounders from the small and mid-cap universe in Asia ($1 - $5 bn in market capitalization).
28 stocks are on our list - 18 from onshore China, 5 from India, 2 each from Japan and Taiwan and 1 from Hong Kong.
Industrials, technology, healthcare and financials dominate the list. The list of large and mid-cap compounders shall largely form the backbone of our top stock choices for 2025.


India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>Demand outside gold remains soft; co‑funding costs show early easing; asset quality stress is shifting, with vehicle finance and micro‑LAP emerging as pain points.</li>
<li>The divergence across NBFC subsegments (gold, affordable housing, vehicle finance, micro-LAP) is widening, making sector-level staging less helpful - selective bets will matter more.</li>
<li>We remain biased toward affordable HFCs, gold financiers (to ride momentum), and select diversified NBFCs. Vigilance is needed to combat NIM pressure and rising unsecured stress.</li>
</ul>


Demand outside gold remains soft; co‑funding costs show early easing; asset quality stress is shifting, with vehicle finance and micro‑LAP emerging as pain points.
The divergence across NBFC subsegments (gold, affordable housing, vehicle finance, micro-LAP) is widening, making sector-level staging less helpful - selective bets will matter more.
We remain biased toward affordable HFCs, gold financiers (to ride momentum), and select diversified NBFCs. Vigilance is needed to combat NIM pressure and rising unsecured stress.


NBFC Q2FY26 Outlook - Rate Cuts, Credit Stress & Selective Wins in NBFCs

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

<ul>
<li>During rate cut cycle, NBFCs with a higher proportion of floating-rate liabilities &amp; a relatively lower proportion of floating-rate assets are poised to experience an expansion in their profitability.</li>
<li>This insight analyzes the asset-liability profiles of select Vehicle Financiers, Prime HFCs, and Affordable HFCs to identify their sensitivity to interest rate movements</li>
<li>Overall, NBFCs expect the benefit of the rate cut to have a lagged effect from H2FY26, leading  expansion in NIM and overall profitability</li>
</ul>


During rate cut cycle, NBFCs with a higher proportion of floating-rate liabilities &amp; a relatively lower proportion of floating-rate assets are poised to experience an expansion in their profitability.
This insight analyzes the asset-liability profiles of select Vehicle Financiers, Prime HFCs, and Affordable HFCs to identify their sensitivity to interest rate movements
Overall, NBFCs expect the benefit of the rate cut to have a lagged effect from H2FY26, leading  expansion in NIM and overall profitability


Thematic Report : Impact of Rate Cuts on Profitability of NBFCs and HFCs in India

India focused: IPO, special situations, Stylus Holdings

Himanshu Dugar

India focused: IPO, special situations

Stylus Holdings

Stylus Holdings is a buy-side equity research firm. We offer bottom-up investment ideas as well as provide on demand equity research and portfolio tracking. 
At Stylus, our focus is to identify market dislocations that can generate 20+% IRR with a reasonable margin of safety. As part of our research process, we do a deep dive into the fundamentals of the company, evaluate their competitive positioning and assess their valuation.
Our investment team is led by Himanshu Dugar. Himanshu is a Chartered Accountant and a CFA charter holder. He has 10+ years of active experience in the stock market with stints at CRISIL Research, a S&P Global copmany and Miras Investments, a single family office based in Dubai.

Equity Research Firm

Five-Star Business Finance / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Five-Star is emerging from a stress-led portfolio repair phase into calibrated growth. Operations have been institutionalised. Collection efficiency exceeds 98%, signalling improving asset quality while disbursements are expected to pick-up.</li>
<li>Management guides for disbursements to grow 10% YOY as it slows down branch expansion. Considering strong credit demand and improving asset quality, we model AUM to grow 20% over FY26-28.</li>
<li>Despite near-term NIM compression and elevated operating expenses from investments in collections, technology and employee retention, Five-Star retains industry-leading profitability, expecting to close FY27 with RoA/RoE of 7.7%/16%</li>
</ul>


Five-Star is emerging from a stress-led portfolio repair phase into calibrated growth. Operations have been institutionalised. Collection efficiency exceeds 98%, signalling improving asset quality while disbursements are expected to pick-up.
Management guides for disbursements to grow 10% YOY as it slows down branch expansion. Considering strong credit demand and improving asset quality, we model AUM to grow 20% over FY26-28.
Despite near-term NIM compression and elevated operating expenses from investments in collections, technology and employee retention, Five-Star retains industry-leading profitability, expecting to close FY27 with RoA/RoE of 7.7%/16%


Five Star Business Finance - At an Inflection Point

India

Aavas Financiers Ltd. is a retail-focused housing finance company primarily serving the low and middle-income segments, particularly self-employed individuals, in semi-urban and rural areas of India. The company specializes in providing home loans, including for construction, purchase, renovation, and extension, along with MSME loans and loans against property, to customers often excluded from formal credit due to a lack of documented income. Aavas Financiers Ltd. is headquartered in Jaipur, Rajasthan, India, and was founded on February 23, 2011.

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Aavas Financiers (AAVAS IN)

Postcard from Mandya | Cruising Around the Sugar City in a BYD

In one of its first decisions, the newly formed NDA government, convened in its inaugural cabinet meeting on Monday, resolved to extend support to...

Pranav Bhavsar

Asian Equities: The SMID Compounders

We identify 28 inexpensive consistent compounders among the Asian small and mid-cap stocks. Onshore China (18) and India (5) dominate the list, as...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

NBFC Q2FY26 Outlook - Rate Cuts, Credit Stress & Selective Wins in NBFCs

Soft demand outside gold, easing co-funding costs, shifting asset quality stress in vehicle finance and micro-LAP. Divergence in NBFC subsegments...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Thematic Report : Impact of Rate Cuts on Profitability of NBFCs and HFCs in India

NBFCs with more floating-rate liabilities and less floating-rate assets set to profit from rate cuts, with increased profitability expected in...

Nimish Maheshwari

Five Star Business Finance - At an Inflection Point

Q1 results show turnaround is underway with strong disbursement growth and improving recoveries. The Balance sheet remains conservatively run with...

Himanshu Dugar

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Postcard from Mandya | Cruising Around the Sugar City in a BYD

In one of its first decisions, the newly formed NDA government, convened in its inaugural cabinet meeting on Monday, resolved to extend support to...

Pranav Bhavsar

Asian Equities: The SMID Compounders

We identify 28 inexpensive consistent compounders among the Asian small and mid-cap stocks. Onshore China (18) and India (5) dominate the list, as...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

NBFC Q2FY26 Outlook - Rate Cuts, Credit Stress & Selective Wins in NBFCs

​Soft demand outside gold, easing co-funding costs, shifting asset quality stress in vehicle finance and micro-LAP. Divergence in NBFC subsegments...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Thematic Report : Impact of Rate Cuts on Profitability of NBFCs and HFCs in India

​NBFCs with more floating-rate liabilities and less floating-rate assets set to profit from rate cuts, with increased profitability expected in...

Nimish Maheshwari

Five Star Business Finance - At an Inflection Point

Q1 results show turnaround is underway with strong disbursement growth and improving recoveries. The Balance sheet remains conservatively run with...

Himanshu Dugar

Soft demand outside gold, easing co-funding costs, shifting asset quality stress in vehicle finance and micro-LAP. Divergence in NBFC subsegments...

NBFCs with more floating-rate liabilities and less floating-rate assets set to profit from rate cuts, with increased profitability expected in...