Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our long-term outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). Germany and Europe continue to lead, our favorite theme we have been buying since January 9th.</li>
<li>Near-Term we wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on SPX in the coming weeks, where we are buyers.</li>
<li>This report was initially sent out Thursday morning, and as of this writing SPX is now testing support at 5850. Bottom potential.</li>
</ul>


Our long-term outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). Germany and Europe continue to lead, our favorite theme we have been buying since January 9th.
Near-Term we wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on SPX in the coming weeks, where we are buyers.
This report was initially sent out Thursday morning, and as of this writing SPX is now testing support at 5850. Bottom potential.


Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany and U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China's DeepSeek is catalyzing growth opportunities in the Software as a Service (SaaS)/ Internet as a Service (IaaS) sectors by integrating AI solutions for platforms, service providers and software applications.</li>
<li>DeepSeek has democratized AI and brought forward significant demand for AI services for enterprises and consumers.  US hyperscalers will struggle to monetize their AI services as inexpensive models will proliferate.</li>
<li>Companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingsoft-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:492:1" rel="noopener">Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingdee-international-sftwr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37:1" rel="noopener">Kingdee International Software (268 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinasoft-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:407:1" rel="noopener">Chinasoft International (354 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vobile-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29711:1" rel="noopener">Vobile Group (3738 HK)</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inspur-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7523:1" rel="noopener">Inspur International (596 HK)</a> will benefit.</li>
</ul>


China's DeepSeek is catalyzing growth opportunities in the Software as a Service (SaaS)/ Internet as a Service (IaaS) sectors by integrating AI solutions for platforms, service providers and software applications.
DeepSeek has democratized AI and brought forward significant demand for AI services for enterprises and consumers.  US hyperscalers will struggle to monetize their AI services as inexpensive models will proliferate.
Companies like Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK) , Kingdee International Software (268 HK) , Chinasoft International (354 HK) , Vobile Group (3738 HK) , and Inspur International (596 HK) will benefit.


DeepSeek Rally Creates More Winners in SaaS/IaaS Sectors

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,262/1,252 points and the resistance at 1,282/1,290 points.</li><li>The MSCI rebalancing for February will be announced on February 11 (Thailand time: February 12) and will take effect on closing prices on February 28, 2025.</li><li>KTX expects the US January 2025 inflation report to show signs of easing due to: i) a decline in cost-push inflation, as natural gas prices fell 16% MoM and oil prices remained stable at +0.8% MoM; and ii) a slowdown in service sector inflation (demand-pull inflation), reflected in the ISM Services Index for January 2025, which dropped to 52.8 from 54.0 in the previous month.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,262/1,252 points and the resistance at 1,282/1,290 points.The MSCI rebalancing for February will be announced on February 11 (Thailand time: February 12) and will take effect on closing prices on February 28, 2025.KTX expects the US January 2025 inflation report to show signs of easing due to: i) a decline in cost-push inflation, as natural gas prices fell 16% MoM and oil prices remained stable at +0.8% MoM; and ii) a slowdown in service sector inflation (demand-pull inflation), reflected in the ISM Services Index for January 2025, which dropped to 52.8 from 54.0 in the previous month.

Earnings Results & US Inflation (Wednesday)

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-longsys-electronics-co-ltd-9ad6ee79-c403-4819-a5df-de95777ae2a7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:55525:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Longsys Electronics (9976 HK)</a> didn't do much at listing and had one of the lowest institutional coverage ratios yet for large A/H listings.</li>
<li>On the placement front, the week wasn't as busy but we did look at a few deals and upcoming lockups.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, Shenzhen Longsys Electronics (9976 HK) didn't do much at listing and had one of the lowest institutional coverage ratios yet for large A/H listings.
On the placement front, the week wasn't as busy but we did look at a few deals and upcoming lockups.


Aequitas ECM Weekly (14 September 2026)-Longsys, GCash, NSE, Ligent, Kingwong, Elice, Hosin, Z.AI

Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term, Urbem (HK) Limited

Urbem Capital

Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

Urbem (HK) Limited

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tobila’s security moat remains intact, but monthly users have stalled near 15 million; pricing and data depth now matter more than penetration.</li>
<li>Solutions rose from roughly 11% of revenue in FY10/2022 to 43% in 9M FY10/2026, shifting the thesis from monopoly durability to reinvestment quality.</li>
<li>The most interesting optionality may be Tobila’s database becoming communications-trust infrastructure, while the biggest risk is organizational complexity quietly eroding incremental returns.</li>
</ul>


Tobila’s security moat remains intact, but monthly users have stalled near 15 million; pricing and data depth now matter more than penetration.
Solutions rose from roughly 11% of revenue in FY10/2022 to 43% in 9M FY10/2026, shifting the thesis from monopoly durability to reinvestment quality.
The most interesting optionality may be Tobila’s database becoming communications-trust infrastructure, while the biggest risk is organizational complexity quietly eroding incremental returns.


Tobila Systems Revisited: The Monopoly Is No Longer the Thesis

Japan

Softbank Corporation provides mobile phone telecommunication and networking services. The Company offers mobile communication opening, short messaging function opening, video function opening, and other services. Softbank also provides mobile phones.

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Softbank Corp (9434 JP)

Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany and U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact

Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany $DAX $EWG and the U.S. $SPX; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI above $116. $SPX...

Vermilion Research

DeepSeek Rally Creates More Winners in SaaS/IaaS Sectors

DeepSeek's breakthrough AI model has created huge demand for AI services at a more affordable price from enterprises and customers.SaaS and IaaS...

David Mudd

Earnings Results & US Inflation (Wednesday)

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,262/1,252 points and the resistance at 1,282/1,290 points. The...

Krungthai XSpring

Aequitas ECM Weekly (14 September 2026)-Longsys, GCash, NSE, Ligent, Kingwong, Elice, Hosin, Z.AI

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

Tobila Systems Revisited: The Monopoly Is No Longer the Thesis

Tobila’s monopoly survived. The investment case has moved to what management builds with its cash, data, distribution and customer-funded balance...

Urbem Capital

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