Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

In this report, we analyse the impact of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the various sectors and companies in our European coverage universe. We also include a list of bonds for which we see good value. The direct impact from the actions taken to stop the war (including sanctions) should be insignificant or moderate for most companies under our coverage, but these names could be severely affected: Air Baltic, Consolis, Kem One, KME, Lecta, Naviera Armas, Nobian, Nordex, Norican, Oriflame, Pro-Gest, Profine, Raffinerie Heide, Stada and Vedanta Resources.

  In this report, we analyse the impact of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the various sectors and companies in our European coverage universe. We also include a list of bonds for which we see good value. The direct impact from the actions taken to stop the war (including sanctions) should be insignificant or moderate for most companies under our coverage, but these names could be severely affected: Air Baltic, Consolis, Kem One, KME, Lecta, Naviera Armas, Nobian, Nordex, Norican, Oriflame, Pro-Gest, Profine, Raffinerie Heide, Stada and Vedanta Resources. 

Impact Of Ukraine Conflict On Lucror’S European Coverage Universe - Lucror Analytics

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I would value Porsche on 18.9x €5.3 billion 22eEBIT, i.e. €100bn; Ferrari, which has moderately higher EBIT margins (25% vs. 16%), trades on 31.2x EV/22e EBIT (Capital IQ consensus).</li>
<li>The current discount of VW prefs to ords is 23.2%. A Porsche IPO without major changes on VW share structure, would be positive for the preference shares. Long prefs/short ords.</li>
<li>An IPO of Porsche would be beneficial for the Porsche SE shares and the current discount to NAV should tighten even more, in my view. Long 1 PAH3 GR/short 0.5136 VOW GR.</li>
</ul>


I would value Porsche on 18.9x €5.3 billion 22eEBIT, i.e. €100bn; Ferrari, which has moderately higher EBIT margins (25% vs. 16%), trades on 31.2x EV/22e EBIT (Capital IQ consensus).
The current discount of VW prefs to ords is 23.2%. A Porsche IPO without major changes on VW share structure, would be positive for the preference shares. Long prefs/short ords.
An IPO of Porsche would be beneficial for the Porsche SE shares and the current discount to NAV should tighten even more, in my view. Long 1 PAH3 GR/short 0.5136 VOW GR.


The Europe HY Trade Book for February 2022 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry.

  The Europe HY Trade Book for February 2022 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry. 

Europe HY Trade Book - February 2022 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for January 2022 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry.

  The Europe HY Trade Book for January 2022 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry. 

Europe HY Trade Book - January 2022 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for December 2021 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry.

  The Europe HY Trade Book for December 2021 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry. 

Europe HY Trade Book - December 2021 - Lucror Analytics

United Kingdom

Aston Martin is a British luxury automotive manufacturer that designs, develops, manufactures, and markets high-performance sports cars, grand tourers, and SUVs. The company also offers related parts, servicing, restoration, and brand licensing activities. Aston Martin was founded in 1913 and is headquartered in Gaydon, Warwickshire, England.

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Aston Martin (AML LN)

Impact Of Ukraine Conflict On Lucror’S European Coverage Universe - Lucror Analytics

In this report, we analyse the impact of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the various sectors and companies in our European coverage universe. We...

Lucror Analytics

PAR3/VOW3/Potential Porsche IPO

The valuation of Porsche OpCo could reach €100 billion, vs. a market capitalization of c. €109.4 billion of VW. This is a feasible range...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Europe HY Trade Book - February 2022 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for February 2022 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with...

Lucror Analytics

Europe HY Trade Book - January 2022 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for January 2022 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with...

Lucror Analytics

Europe HY Trade Book - December 2021 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for December 2021 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with...

Lucror Analytics

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