TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Like PANW and SNOW, Elastic continues to power through macro headwinds seen by many other software companies.</li>
<li>Elastic has a Crowdstrike like dynamic, where it is capturing new workloads from incumbents, in the cloud. In this case, Symantec's share donator role is being played by Splunk.</li>
<li>In this tough volatile environment, we like an observability pair trade of Long ESTC / Short SPLK.</li>
</ul>


Like PANW and SNOW, Elastic continues to power through macro headwinds seen by many other software companies.
Elastic has a Crowdstrike like dynamic, where it is capturing new workloads from incumbents, in the cloud. In this case, Symantec's share donator role is being played by Splunk.
In this tough volatile environment, we like an observability pair trade of Long ESTC / Short SPLK.


Observability Pair Trade: Long Elastic / Short Splunk

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumo-logic-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29265:1" rel="noopener">Sumo Logic Inc (SUMO US)</a>  surprised investors and reported solid 2QFY23 results pushing shares up over 10% during a regular trading session on Friday. </li>
<li>Provider of cloud-based machine data analytics reported revenue/non-GAAP EPS of $74.1M/($0.10), above consensus, and improved FY23 outlook.  </li>
<li>Management focused on delivering more efficient growth and reduced hiring plans. Customer metrics remained strong, with a dollar-based net retention rate of 115%.</li>
</ul>



Sumo Logic Inc (SUMO US)  surprised investors and reported solid 2QFY23 results pushing shares up over 10% during a regular trading session on Friday. 
Provider of cloud-based machine data analytics reported revenue/non-GAAP EPS of $74.1M/($0.10), above consensus, and improved FY23 outlook.  
Management focused on delivering more efficient growth and reduced hiring plans. Customer metrics remained strong, with a dollar-based net retention rate of 115%.


Sumo Logic. 2QFY23 Wrap: Rising From The Ashes?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elastic-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27526:1" rel="noopener">Elastic NV (ESTC US)</a>  reported stronger than expected 4QFY22 results, and management provided guidance for FY25 total revenue of $2 billion. </li>
<li>The net expansion rate was 140%+ for Elastic Cloud in 4QFY22, and the company expects cloud revenue to exceed 50% of total revenue by 4QFY24.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elastic-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27526:1" rel="noopener">Elastic NV (ESTC US)</a> appears well-positioned to outperform across observability and security market segments. Management was confident in achieving growth objectives in FY23 and beyond.</li>
</ul>



Elastic NV (ESTC US)  reported stronger than expected 4QFY22 results, and management provided guidance for FY25 total revenue of $2 billion. 
The net expansion rate was 140%+ for Elastic Cloud in 4QFY22, and the company expects cloud revenue to exceed 50% of total revenue by 4QFY24.  

Elastic NV (ESTC US) appears well-positioned to outperform across observability and security market segments. Management was confident in achieving growth objectives in FY23 and beyond.


Elastic: Beat and Raise. $2B in Total Revenue in FY25

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/splunk-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12849:1" rel="noopener">Splunk Inc (SPLK US)</a> , a leading American provider of machine-generated data platform and established software vendor, announced strong 1QFY23 earnings results. </li>
<li>Total revenues grew to $674M, up 34% YoY, the highest revenue growth rate for the last 3 years. Cloud revenues jumped by 66%, reflecting customer adoption of the cloud platform.</li>
<li>WSJ reported that Cisco made a <strong>$20B</strong>+ takeover offer for Splunk. However, no deal was on the table, but if talks resume, Cisco could pay $20B+, according to The NYT.   </li>
</ul>



Splunk Inc (SPLK US) , a leading American provider of machine-generated data platform and established software vendor, announced strong 1QFY23 earnings results. 
Total revenues grew to $674M, up 34% YoY, the highest revenue growth rate for the last 3 years. Cloud revenues jumped by 66%, reflecting customer adoption of the cloud platform.
WSJ reported that Cisco made a $20B+ takeover offer for Splunk. However, no deal was on the table, but if talks resume, Cisco could pay $20B+, according to The NYT.   


1QFY23 Revenue Growth Accelerated As Cloud-Driven Transformation Goes Well

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>HashiCorp is a cloud infrastructure automation company offering industry leading-products with high-profile customer list and freemium business model. The unicorn was backed by leading VC investors. </li>
<li>HashiCorp is the open-source software company, which is well-positioned to gain market share in the cloud infrastructure, security and networking addressable markets. </li>
<li>The company filed to go public this month. Our post-IPO valuation implies substantial upside potential to last private round valuation and we have favorable view of the upcoming IPO.</li>
</ul>


HashiCorp is a cloud infrastructure automation company offering industry leading-products with high-profile customer list and freemium business model. The unicorn was backed by leading VC investors. 
HashiCorp is the open-source software company, which is well-positioned to gain market share in the cloud infrastructure, security and networking addressable markets. 
The company filed to go public this month. Our post-IPO valuation implies substantial upside potential to last private round valuation and we have favorable view of the upcoming IPO.


HashiCorp IPO: Serious Player in Multi-Cloud Infrastructure Automation Segment

United States

Elastic N.V. provides information technology and data analysis services. The Company offers monitoring, security analysis, enterprise search, cloud computing, and open source application performance monitoring solutions. Elastic serves customers in the United States.

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Elastic NV (ESTC US)

Observability Pair Trade: Long Elastic / Short Splunk

Elastic is another rare software company that has powered through tough macro this quarter. In this tough volatile environment, we like an...

Aaron Gabin

Sumo Logic. 2QFY23 Wrap: Rising From The Ashes?

Sumo Logic could report a solid 2QFY23 results despite macro uncertainty and turbulent market conditions. Revenue growth accelerated to 26% y/y and...

Andrei Zakharov

Elastic: Beat and Raise. $2B in Total Revenue in FY25

Elastic surprised investors and provided top-line guidance for FY25 total revenue of $2B. We maintain a bullish view on Elastic and see ESTC’s...

Andrei Zakharov

1QFY23 Revenue Growth Accelerated As Cloud-Driven Transformation Goes Well

Cloud ARR growth has accelerated, and we expect Splunk shares may outperform Nasdaq Composite and publicly listed peers in 2022

Andrei Zakharov

HashiCorp IPO: Serious Player in Multi-Cloud Infrastructure Automation Segment

HashiCorp, one of the leaders among infrastructure automation platform providers, filed to go public after a successful Nasdaq debut of open source...

Andrei Zakharov

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