HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Guotai Junan International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-haitong-securities-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Haitong Securities (2611 HK)</a> proposed to privatise <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13438:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan International (1788 HK)</a> at HK$3.0, a 44.2% premium to the pre-suspension price, which looks good enough. </li>
<li>The proposed price equals 11.9x PER for FY26F, higher than the average of 10.1x since 2024. This is better than the sector's average PER of 10.3x.</li>
<li>It also equates to 1.6x 12-month forward P/B, or 1.3SD above the 5-year average, well reflecting a projected ROE recovery in the next two years.</li>
</ul>



Guotai Haitong Securities (2611 HK) proposed to privatise Guotai Junan International (1788 HK) at HK$3.0, a 44.2% premium to the pre-suspension price, which looks good enough. 
The proposed price equals 11.9x PER for FY26F, higher than the average of 10.1x since 2024. This is better than the sector's average PER of 10.3x.
It also equates to 1.6x 12-month forward P/B, or 1.3SD above the 5-year average, well reflecting a projected ROE recovery in the next two years.


Guotai Junan Intl (1788 HK): A Good Enough Privatisation Price

Equity Capital Markets

Zhongji InnoLight / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongji-innolight" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:55331:1" rel="noopener">Zhongji InnoLight (3308 HK)</a> fixed its IPO price at HK$980, 3% below the maximum, due to the recent weakness of AI-related stocks. Its HA discount is now at just 11.1%.  </li>
<li>Its peers have retreated an average of 12.1% in a week, and its A-share was off by 10.4%. Futubull's grey market price was down 1% from the IPO.</li>
<li>It may dip below IPO on debut, but anything below 15% HA discount is a bargain (HK$936.8). For initial upside, we look for par with A-share, i.e. HK$1,102.</li>
</ul>



Zhongji InnoLight (3308 HK) fixed its IPO price at HK$980, 3% below the maximum, due to the recent weakness of AI-related stocks. Its HA discount is now at just 11.1%.  
Its peers have retreated an average of 12.1% in a week, and its A-share was off by 10.4%. Futubull's grey market price was down 1% from the IPO.
It may dip below IPO on debut, but anything below 15% HA discount is a bargain (HK$936.8). For initial upside, we look for par with A-share, i.e. HK$1,102.


Zhongji InnoLight (3308 HK) IPO: Debut and Trading Strategy

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI,ACWI ex-U.S.,EAFE, and EM) remain bearish with YTD downtrends intact. Until these indexes reverse downtrends, we are bearish and view bounces as bear market rallies.</li>
<li>Major non-U.S. countries appear to be much further along in the bottoming process, a potential sign that U.S. indexes could take a back seat once global equities finally bottom.</li>
<li>Indexes that have not made a new low since March: Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small, Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50, and China's MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US).</li>
</ul>


Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI,ACWI ex-U.S.,EAFE, and EM) remain bearish with YTD downtrends intact. Until these indexes reverse downtrends, we are bearish and view bounces as bear market rallies.
Major non-U.S. countries appear to be much further along in the bottoming process, a potential sign that U.S. indexes could take a back seat once global equities finally bottom.
Indexes that have not made a new low since March: Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small, Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50, and China's MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US).


Hang Seng, MSCI China Near Major Base Breakouts; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's in Hong Kong, China, & Japan

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Global Emerging Markets weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.</li>
<li>
 Macro data points:Chinese PMI, and most of the rest of Asia’s PMI data showed declines.</li>
<li>
 Companies mentioned:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/petroleo-brasileiro-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24459:1" rel="noopener">Petroleo Brasileiro Sa (PETR3 BZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hcl-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20025:1" rel="noopener">Hcl Technologies (HCLT IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a>
</li>
</ul>


The Global Emerging Markets weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.

 Macro data points:Chinese PMI, and most of the rest of Asia’s PMI data showed declines.

 Companies mentioned:Petroleo Brasileiro Sa (PETR3 BZ), Sea Ltd (SE US), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), Hcl Technologies (HCLT IN), Baidu (9888 HK)



GEM Weekly (1 Apr 2022): Chinese Macro Activity; Petrobras, Sea, Kuaishou, HCL Tech, Baidu

Insurance & Central Asia-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group

Alec Tseung

Insurance & Central Asia-focused Analyst

This Original aims to identify the key investment opportunities among the listed brokers in the three major East Asian countries - China, Japan, and Korea. By looking at the development of the brokerage sectors in these three countries, we observe a general trend where upstart online brokers first compete against the more established brokers based on their cost and technological advantages. This then pushes the more established brokers to either focus on more lucrative wholesale businesses or adopt and invest in tech initiatives in order to stay competitive in the retail market.After further establishing themselves in the retail market, these upstart online brokers then also diversify and expand into the more lucrative wealth/asset management or even wholesale businesses.  By gauging at which phase the broker is in this cycle, investors can have a good understanding of its future outlook.In our opinion, Korean brokers currently offer the best value, while the Chinese pure-play online brokers offer the highest growth potential. As such, our pecking order, in terms of investment attractiveness, is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kiwoom-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20418:1" rel="noopener">Kiwoom Securities (039490 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/east-money-information-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8075:1" rel="noopener">East Money Information Co A (300059 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/futu-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27858:1" rel="noopener">Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monex-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14211:1" rel="noopener">Monex Group Inc (8698 JP)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huatai-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:449:1" rel="noopener">Huatai Securities Co Ltd (H) (6886 HK)</a>.  <h2>What is Original?</h2>In this Original, we look into the competitive landscape of the brokerage sectors in China, Japan, and Korea. 55 listed brokers from these three countries are included in this Original as the company universe for regression analysis. Among them, a total of 8 brokers are chosen, with their company profiles separately presented, to further showcase and contrast the impact of competition and technological disruption. Based on this, a pecking order is then developed, both on a country and a company basis.

This Original aims to identify the key investment opportunities among the listed brokers in the three major East Asian countries - China, Japan, and Korea. By looking at the development of the brokerage sectors in these three countries, we observe a general trend where upstart online brokers first compete against the more established brokers based on their cost and technological advantages. This then pushes the more established brokers to either focus on more lucrative wholesale businesses or adopt and invest in tech initiatives in order to stay competitive in the retail market.After further establishing themselves in the retail market, these upstart online brokers then also diversify and expand into the more lucrative wealth/asset management or even wholesale businesses.  By gauging at which phase the broker is in this cycle, investors can have a good understanding of its future outlook.In our opinion, Korean brokers currently offer the best value, while the Chinese pure-play online brokers offer the highest growth potential. As such, our pecking order, in terms of investment attractiveness, is Kiwoom Securities (039490 KS), East Money Information Co A (300059 CH), Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US), Monex Group Inc (8698 JP) / Huatai Securities Co Ltd (H) (6886 HK).  What is Original?In this Original, we look into the competitive landscape of the brokerage sectors in China, Japan, and Korea. 55 listed brokers from these three countries are included in this Original as the company universe for regression analysis. Among them, a total of 8 brokers are chosen, with their company profiles separately presented, to further showcase and contrast the impact of competition and technological disruption. Based on this, a pecking order is then developed, both on a country and a company basis.

Asian Brokers: A Competition Between Value and Growth

United States

Futu Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers an online brokerage platform that enables individual investors to trade in listed stocks. Futu Holdings serves customers in the United States, China, and Hong Kong.

Price Gauge
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Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US)

Guotai Junan Intl (1788 HK): A Good Enough Privatisation Price

Guotai Haitong proposes to privatise Guotai Junan International at HK$3.0, a 44.2% premium over the closing price, offering a higher-than-average...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Zhongji InnoLight (3308 HK) IPO: Debut and Trading Strategy

Zhongji InnoLight prices IPO at 3% below the maximum due to AI stock weakness. It may dip below IPO price, but anything more than 15% HA discount...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hang Seng, MSCI China Near Major Base Breakouts; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's in Hong Kong, China, & Japan

Hong Kong's Hang Seng and China's $MCHI and $KWEB are near major base breakouts. We are watching is 22,700 on Hang Seng and $56.60 on MCHI; we are...

Vermilion Research

GEM Weekly (1 Apr 2022): Chinese Macro Activity; Petrobras, Sea, Kuaishou, HCL Tech, Baidu

The Global Emerging Markets weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of...

Wium Malan, CFA

Asian Brokers: A Competition Between Value and Growth

The Original looks into the current competitive landscape of the brokerage sectors in China, Japan, and Korea, with a view to developing a list of...

Alec Tseung

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Guotai Junan Intl (1788 HK): A Good Enough Privatisation Price

​Guotai Haitong proposes to privatise Guotai Junan International at HK$3.0, a 44.2% premium over the closing price, offering a higher-than-average...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Zhongji InnoLight (3308 HK) IPO: Debut and Trading Strategy

​Zhongji InnoLight prices IPO at 3% below the maximum due to AI stock weakness. It may dip below IPO price, but anything more than 15% HA discount...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hang Seng, MSCI China Near Major Base Breakouts; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's in Hong Kong, China, & Japan

Hong Kong's Hang Seng and China's $MCHI and $KWEB are near major base breakouts. We are watching is 22,700 on Hang Seng and $56.60 on MCHI; we are...

Vermilion Research

GEM Weekly (1 Apr 2022): Chinese Macro Activity; Petrobras, Sea, Kuaishou, HCL Tech, Baidu

The Global Emerging Markets weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of...

Wium Malan, CFA

Asian Brokers: A Competition Between Value and Growth

The Original looks into the current competitive landscape of the brokerage sectors in China, Japan, and Korea, with a view to developing a list of...

Alec Tseung

Guotai Haitong proposes to privatise Guotai Junan International at HK$3.0, a 44.2% premium over the closing price, offering a higher-than-average...

Zhongji InnoLight prices IPO at 3% below the maximum due to AI stock weakness. It may dip below IPO price, but anything more than 15% HA discount...