Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Over the next couple of weeks, we will focus on highlighting key earnings and what catches our attention in the conference calls</li>
<li>Top Large Cap Bullish Ideas include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-asset-management-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27027:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Asset Management Co Ltd (HDFCAMC IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3613:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pvr-inox-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10144:1" rel="noopener">Pvr Inox (PVRINOX IN)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/d-b-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6044:1" rel="noopener">D.B. Corp Ltd (DBCL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indiamart-intermesh-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27733:1" rel="noopener">IndiaMart (INMART IN)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gopal-snacks-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40960:1" rel="noopener">Gopal Snacks (GOPAL IN)</a> are names that we have a bearish view on. </li>
</ul>


Over the next couple of weeks, we will focus on highlighting key earnings and what catches our attention in the conference calls
Top Large Cap Bullish Ideas include HDFC Asset Management Co Ltd (HDFCAMC IN), Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) &amp; Pvr Inox (PVRINOX IN).

D.B. Corp Ltd (DBCL IN), IndiaMart (INMART IN) &amp; Gopal Snacks (GOPAL IN) are names that we have a bearish view on. 


Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Editions Are Back

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

CG Power and Industrial Solutions / Index Rebalance

CG Power and Industrial Solutions (CGPOWER IN)

<ul>
<li>NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for these  indices in the March 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>There are no changes for NIFTY 50 but there could be four changes for NIFTY Next 50 according to current rankings.</li>
</ul>


NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for these  indices in the March 2025 index rebal event.
There are no changes for NIFTY 50 but there could be four changes for NIFTY Next 50 according to current rankings.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 25: Four Changes Likely for NIFTY Next 50 + Hyundai Motor India IPO

<ul>
<li>We spoke to cable distributors and industry experts to understand any concerns regarding industry-wide inventory levels and to gauge the current demand environment.</li>
<li>Stocks in focus include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/polycab-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27877:1" rel="noopener">Polycab India (POLYCAB IN)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kei-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6711:1" rel="noopener">KEI Industries (KEII IN)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/r-r-kabel" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39810:1" rel="noopener">R R Kabel (2333180Z IN)</a>.  </li>
<li>Overall industry business momentum remains strong, project delays and competition warrant attention. </li>
</ul>


We spoke to cable distributors and industry experts to understand any concerns regarding industry-wide inventory levels and to gauge the current demand environment.
Stocks in focus include Polycab India (POLYCAB IN); KEI Industries (KEII IN) &amp; R R Kabel (2333180Z IN).  
Overall industry business momentum remains strong, project delays and competition warrant attention. 


Polycab India (POLYCAB IN) | Inventory, Demand Environment & Competition

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Housing and Urban Development Corporation / Event-Driven

Housing and Urban Development Corporation (HUDCO IN)

Housing and Urban Development Corporation

<ul>
<li>We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and vice versa, 17 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, 19 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap and 2 new additions to MidCap.</li>
<li>The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other potential migrations with all stocks moving higher over the last six months.</li>
<li>Momentum on the upward migrations could sustain as active managers reposition their portfolios. Some stocks will have passive flows over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and vice versa, 17 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, 19 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap and 2 new additions to MidCap.
The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other potential migrations with all stocks moving higher over the last six months.
Momentum on the upward migrations could sustain as active managers reposition their portfolios. Some stocks will have passive flows over the next few months.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2024): Potential Changes as Momentum Recovers

<ul>
<li>There are 13 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 42.3% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 32bn (US$384m). There are 13 stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade, mostly on the deletes.</li>
<li>After steady outperformance over the last few months, there was a selloff in momentum names following the announcement of the election results. There has been a recovery since then.</li>
</ul>


There are 13 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.
Estimated one-way turnover is 42.3% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 32bn (US$384m). There are 13 stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade, mostly on the deletes.
After steady outperformance over the last few months, there was a selloff in momentum names following the announcement of the election results. There has been a recovery since then.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 13 Changes, 42% Turnover, Momentum Recovers After Selloff

India

Polycab India Ltd. is India's largest manufacturer of wires and cables, and a prominent player in the Fast Moving Electrical Goods (FMEG) industry, offering products such as electric fans, LED lighting, switches, switchgear, and solar products. The company also operates in the Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) sector, specializing in power distribution and rural electrification projects. Polycab India is headquartered in Mumbai, India, and was incorporated in 1996.

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Polycab India (POLYCAB IN)

Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Editions Are Back

Focus on key earnings and conference calls. Top Large Cap Bullish Ideas: HDFC Asset Management, Bajaj Auto, Pvr Inox. Bearish view on D.B. Corp,...

Pranav Bhavsar

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 25: Four Changes Likely for NIFTY Next 50 + Hyundai Motor India IPO

Hindustan Aeronautics is the top potential ADD and Eicher Motors is the top potential DEL for NIFTY 50. To trigger an index change, Hindustan...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA