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Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

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<ul><li>State-owned China Bond Insurance Co. is expanding a debt guarantee program to help about a dozen property developers issue 20 billion yuan ($2.75 billion) of bonds to shore up an industry that’s mired in a liquidity crisis amid slumping housing sales.</li><li>The debt-support policies are aimed at alleviating financial stress for private companies that are battling an economic slowdown and disruptions caused by the latest wave of Covid-19 lockdowns.</li><li>Defaults by private enterprises are increasing, and investors are becoming more wary of buying their debt.</li></ul>

State-owned China Bond Insurance Co. is expanding a debt guarantee program to help about a dozen property developers issue 20 billion yuan ($2.75 billion) of bonds to shore up an industry that’s mired in a liquidity crisis amid slumping housing sales.The debt-support policies are aimed at alleviating financial stress for private companies that are battling an economic slowdown and disruptions caused by the latest wave of Covid-19 lockdowns.Defaults by private enterprises are increasing, and investors are becoming more wary of buying their debt.

China Expands Debt Guarantee Program for Property Developers

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

For all the roller coaster rides the sector has taken investors on over the years, the Chinese property developers have been unsettlingly consistent in one regard. The CNY1tn fixed asset investment (FAI) homebuilders coughed up in May continued a two-decades long secular trend that may make or break China's still fragile recovery (Exhibit 1).
The Debt-Fueled Supercycle. The sector has seen its share of excesses and corrections, exemplified by the post-GFC FAI expansion and subsequent retrenchment. Covid might have driven up construction costs, but the enthusiasm of would-be homeowners has shown no signs of abating. Just as the developers are working overtime to deleverage their balance sheets, household debt is piling up and may approach alarming levels over the next five years if mortgage growth doesn't decelerate quickly enough.
The Inventory Drawdown. Behind the headline FAI number is a more nuanced picture of inventory reductions and landbank replenishment. Housing starts slowed in May and dipped below project completions on a 12-month rolling basis. This affords cash-strapped property firms an opportunity to rebuild their cashflows, while deploying cash to projects in hand.
The Insatiable Demand. The 0.5% m/m or 5% y/y rise in home prices last month may appear benign in other settings. In the context of China's already exorbitant base, recent data points are a cause for concern. Among the largest cities across the country, those in the Greater Bay Area stand out as outliers, with valuations skyrocketing in spite of the latest round of lockdowns.
The Aggressive Developers. The increasingly bullish undertones of sell-side notes that have landed on our desks are centered around the inventory drawdown / cashflow rebuild story of the perceived higher-quality names in the space. We are not buyers of that story just yet and our work suggests that many developers have been acquiring land at a more aggressive rate than they had planned at the beginning of the year. Regulators are already keeping a close eye on recent transactions and we think we should too.
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<td style="width: 746px;">Exhibit 1: Monthly Housing FAI | 3M Moving Avg (CNY bn)</td>
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<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/215/144/original/image_45072834061624549646155.png?1624549646" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="215144"></figure>
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Our analysis
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Related Insights
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-financials-silver-linings-playbook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53013" rel="noopener">China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook</a> </li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/glut-and-famine-we-might-see-snow-in-china-this-summer" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52840" rel="noopener">Glut and Famine: We Might See Snow in China This Summer</a> </li>
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For all the roller coaster rides the sector has taken investors on over the years, the Chinese property developers have been unsettlingly consistent in one regard. The CNY1tn fixed asset investment (FAI) homebuilders coughed up in May continued a two-decades long secular trend that may make or break China's still fragile recovery (Exhibit 1).
The Debt-Fueled Supercycle. The sector has seen its share of excesses and corrections, exemplified by the post-GFC FAI expansion and subsequent retrenchment. Covid might have driven up construction costs, but the enthusiasm of would-be homeowners has shown no signs of abating. Just as the developers are working overtime to deleverage their balance sheets, household debt is piling up and may approach alarming levels over the next five years if mortgage growth doesn't decelerate quickly enough.
The Inventory Drawdown. Behind the headline FAI number is a more nuanced picture of inventory reductions and landbank replenishment. Housing starts slowed in May and dipped below project completions on a 12-month rolling basis. This affords cash-strapped property firms an opportunity to rebuild their cashflows, while deploying cash to projects in hand.
The Insatiable Demand. The 0.5% m/m or 5% y/y rise in home prices last month may appear benign in other settings. In the context of China's already exorbitant base, recent data points are a cause for concern. Among the largest cities across the country, those in the Greater Bay Area stand out as outliers, with valuations skyrocketing in spite of the latest round of lockdowns.
The Aggressive Developers. The increasingly bullish undertones of sell-side notes that have landed on our desks are centered around the inventory drawdown / cashflow rebuild story of the perceived higher-quality names in the space. We are not buyers of that story just yet and our work suggests that many developers have been acquiring land at a more aggressive rate than they had planned at the beginning of the year. Regulators are already keeping a close eye on recent transactions and we think we should too.



Exhibit 1: Monthly Housing FAI | 3M Moving Avg (CNY bn)




Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Our analysis




Related Insights


China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook 

Glut and Famine: We Might See Snow in China This Summer 

China Macro: Operation Twist | The Deposit Version 

China Macro: Consumers Remain on the Sidelines, as Their Home Equity Grows 

China Macro: PPI Peaks, while CPI Eases Tightening Fears 

China Macro: Exports Disappoint, but It's Still Early in the Game 


China Properties: Like Clockwork, Real Estate Investments Haven't Skipped a Beat

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Following on from our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-housing-in-the-guangdong-hong-kong-macau-greater-bay-area-gba" target="_blank">original note</a> on the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) from the day of the blueprint announcement on February 18, we are presenting the highlights from our inaugural 'Baywatch' report focused on the housing markets on the mainland of the GBA. For the essentials on the GBA, see Bondcritic's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-s-greater-bay-area-the-essential" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29080">China’s Greater Bay Area: The Essential</a>

Following on from our original note on the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) from the day of the blueprint announcement on February 18, we are presenting the highlights from our inaugural 'Baywatch' report focused on the housing markets on the mainland of the GBA. For the essentials on the GBA, see Bondcritic's China’s Greater Bay Area: The Essential

China Housing: Highlights From the 'Baywatch' Report On The Greater Bay Area (GBA)

A commentary on the latest official data on China housing markets from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released today and yesterday. Price growth accelerated marginally year-on-year, with a stable growth month-on-month. New home sales (in gross floor area) growth picked up. Land sales (land acquisitions by developers) stayed negative year-to-date year-on-year after the big drop in recent months.

A commentary on the latest official data on China housing markets from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released today and yesterday. Price growth accelerated marginally year-on-year, with a stable growth month-on-month. New home sales (in gross floor area) growth picked up. Land sales (land acquisitions by developers) stayed negative year-to-date year-on-year after the big drop in recent months.

China Housing: Volumes Growth Up, Land Sales Down, Prices Up (April NBS Data)

We assume that the growth in the house price index of 100 major cities represents the overall 'portfolio' return and calculate how removing Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3/Other cities from the 'portfolio' would have impacted the return for March 2018 - March 2019 and December 2016 - March 2019 periods.

We assume that the growth in the house price index of 100 major cities represents the overall 'portfolio' return and calculate how removing Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3/Other cities from the 'portfolio' would have impacted the return for March 2018 - March 2019 and December 2016 - March 2019 periods.

China Housing: If Cities Were... Stocks - How Have City Tiers Impacted Returns In The Recent Years?

China

Dexin China is a real estate development company primarily engaged in property development and sales, property investment, and hotel operations in the People's Republic of China. The company develops residential, commercial, and industrial properties. Dexin China was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.

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Dexin China (26X GR)

China Expands Debt Guarantee Program for Property Developers

State-owned China Bond Insurance Co. is expanding a debt guarantee program to help about a dozen property developers issue 20 billion yuan ($2.75...

Caixin Global

China Properties: Like Clockwork, Real Estate Investments Haven't Skipped a Beat

Housing FAI in May continued a secular trend that may make or break China's recovery. Inventory drawdowns may afford developers some breathing...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China Housing: Highlights From the 'Baywatch' Report On The Greater Bay Area (GBA)

Following on from our original note on the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) from the day of the blueprint announcement on...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: Volumes Growth Up, Land Sales Down, Prices Up (April NBS Data)

A commentary on the latest official data on China housing markets from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released today and yesterday. Price...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: If Cities Were... Stocks - How Have City Tiers Impacted Returns In The Recent Years?

We assume that the growth in the house price index of 100 major cities represents the overall 'portfolio' return and calculate how removing Tier-1,...

Robert Ciemniak

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