HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China biotech has become the biggest valuation driver for the entire healthcare sector based on strong expectations on licensing cooperations. Other subsectors may still underperform due to lack of logic.</li>
<li>The primary market still lacks confidence in long-term outlook. Some founders/shareholders have already reduced holdings and cash out. Valuation bubble may burst when turning point occurs.We analyzed the possible scenarios.</li>
<li>At this stage, stock picking logic may need to focus on three directions. The next stage of the rise may come more from A-share market. We shared our top picks.</li>
</ul>


China biotech has become the biggest valuation driver for the entire healthcare sector based on strong expectations on licensing cooperations. Other subsectors may still underperform due to lack of logic.
The primary market still lacks confidence in long-term outlook. Some founders/shareholders have already reduced holdings and cash out. Valuation bubble may burst when turning point occurs.We analyzed the possible scenarios.
At this stage, stock picking logic may need to focus on three directions. The next stage of the rise may come more from A-share market. We shared our top picks.


What Happens to China Healthcare? - The Soaring Shares, the Turning Point, and the Top Picks

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Three for three. Three low-balled Hong Kong Offers, by way of Schemes, have now lapsed over the past ten weeks. </li>
<li>Both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldlion-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12359:1" rel="noopener">Goldlion Holdings (533 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soundwill-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19318:1" rel="noopener">Soundwill Holdings (878 HK)</a> spectacularly failed back in May.</li>
<li>Now <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dickson-concepts-intl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5052:1" rel="noopener">Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK)</a> has followed suit. But the vote was (much) closer than it should have been.</li>
</ul>


Three for three. Three low-balled Hong Kong Offers, by way of Schemes, have now lapsed over the past ten weeks. 
Both Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) and Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) spectacularly failed back in May.
Now Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) has followed suit. But the vote was (much) closer than it should have been.


Dickson Concept (113 HK): More Minority Teeth Bared As Another Scheme Fails

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>Shanghai Henlius Biotech initiated Phase 3 U.S. clinical trial for HLX22 for gastroesophageal junction and gastric cancer. CanSino Biologics obtained clinical trial approval in China for polio vaccine.</li>
<li>FDA rejected Nippon Shinyaku’s new drug application for CAP-1002 for DMD. JCR Pharmaceuticals announced license agreement with Acumen Pharmaceuticals to develop Alzheimer’s disease drug using JCR’s BBB -penetrating technology platform.</li>
<li>Mesoblast recorded $13.2M revenue from Ryoncil post-launch March 28 through June 30. Sun Pharma launched Leqselvi in the U.S. for the treatment of adults with severe alopecia areata.</li>
</ul>


Shanghai Henlius Biotech initiated Phase 3 U.S. clinical trial for HLX22 for gastroesophageal junction and gastric cancer. CanSino Biologics obtained clinical trial approval in China for polio vaccine.
FDA rejected Nippon Shinyaku’s new drug application for CAP-1002 for DMD. JCR Pharmaceuticals announced license agreement with Acumen Pharmaceuticals to develop Alzheimer’s disease drug using JCR’s BBB -penetrating technology platform.
Mesoblast recorded $13.2M revenue from Ryoncil post-launch March 28 through June 30. Sun Pharma launched Leqselvi in the U.S. for the treatment of adults with severe alopecia areata.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (July 20) – Henlius Bio, CanSino, Nippon Shinyaku, JCR, Mesoblast, Sun Pharma

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dickson-concepts-intl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5052:1" rel="noopener">Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK)</a> shareholders have voted against Sir Poon’s HK$7.20 per share offer. The vote marginally failed the &lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders' rejection threshold.</li>
<li>While painful, this deal break was arguably the correct outcome as the offer was below the net cash and Dickson is cash generative on an underlying basis. </li>
<li>Unlike the last HK deal break (Soundwill), the price action over the last two days indicated a done deal. My estimated break price is HK$5.00 (30% downside to last close).</li>
</ul>



Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) shareholders have voted against Sir Poon’s HK$7.20 per share offer. The vote marginally failed the &lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders' rejection threshold.
While painful, this deal break was arguably the correct outcome as the offer was below the net cash and Dickson is cash generative on an underlying basis. 
Unlike the last HK deal break (Soundwill), the price action over the last two days indicated a done deal. My estimated break price is HK$5.00 (30% downside to last close).


Dickson Concepts (113 HK): A Necessary HK Arbageddon

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sandoz-group-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40453:1" rel="noopener">Sandoz Group (SDZNY US)</a> shares rallied more than 40% from lows in early April, backed by strong topline performance in 1Q25 and 2025 guidance confirmation.</li>
<li>Anticipated biosimilar launches primarily weighted to second half of year. Upcoming launches include Wyost/Jubbonti (denosumab) in Europe, Afqlir (aflibercept) in Europe, and Tyruko (natalizumab) in the U.S.</li>
<li>Sandoz is poised for accelerated growth in the later half of the year and in medium-term as more biosimilars are launched. The company will announce 1H25 result on August 7.</li>
</ul>



Sandoz Group (SDZNY US) shares rallied more than 40% from lows in early April, backed by strong topline performance in 1Q25 and 2025 guidance confirmation.
Anticipated biosimilar launches primarily weighted to second half of year. Upcoming launches include Wyost/Jubbonti (denosumab) in Europe, Afqlir (aflibercept) in Europe, and Tyruko (natalizumab) in the U.S.
Sandoz is poised for accelerated growth in the later half of the year and in medium-term as more biosimilars are launched. The company will announce 1H25 result on August 7.


Sandoz Group (SDZNY US): On a High Momentum; Here’s What Lies Ahead

China

Shanghai Henlius Biotech, Inc develops and produces drugs. The Company develops and produces monoclonal antibody biosimilar drugs, bio betters, novel monoclonal antibodys, and other drugs. Shanghai Henlius Biotech throughout China.

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Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)

What Happens to China Healthcare? - The Soaring Shares, the Turning Point, and the Top Picks

Hengrui has entered into agreements with GSK for HRS-9821 and up to 11 programs, with high upfront payment of US$500 million and total amount of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Dickson Concept (113 HK): More Minority Teeth Bared As Another Scheme Fails

This is a consistently profitable company. The undisturbed price was $4.78. Yet the HSI is up ~12.8% since the Offer was announced, so perhaps...

David Blennerhassett

APAC Healthcare Weekly (July 20) – Henlius Bio, CanSino, Nippon Shinyaku, JCR, Mesoblast, Sun Pharma

Henlius Bio initiates P3 U.S. trial for cancer drug. FDA rejected Nippon Shinyaku’s new drug filing. JCR partners with Acumen to develop...

Tina Banerjee

Dickson Concepts (113 HK): A Necessary HK Arbageddon

While painful, this deal break was arguably the correct outcome as the offer was below the net cash. My estimated break price is HK$5.00 (30%...

Arun George

Sandoz Group (SDZNY US): On a High Momentum; Here’s What Lies Ahead

Sandoz is poised for accelerated growth in 2H25 with more biosimilars are launched. The company will announce 1H25 result on August 7. Rich...

Tina Banerjee

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