European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>December spreads were technically noisy but structurally neutral: median unchanged, dispersion high, with year-end flows interrupting—but not invalidating—ongoing convergence across Europe’s dual-class universe.</li>
<li>Marginal voting premia continue to erode where control is entrenched: Henkel, Grifols and Roche show further compression as governance risk fades and incremental voting rights lose economic relevance.</li>
<li>Nordic anomalies remain unresolved: Handelsbanken’s &gt;70% premium and SSAB’s anchored discount continue to reflect flow and structural frictions rather than voting economics, offering the clearest dispersion opportunities into 2026.</li>
</ul>


December spreads were technically noisy but structurally neutral: median unchanged, dispersion high, with year-end flows interrupting—but not invalidating—ongoing convergence across Europe’s dual-class universe.
Marginal voting premia continue to erode where control is entrenched: Henkel, Grifols and Roche show further compression as governance risk fades and incremental voting rights lose economic relevance.
Nordic anomalies remain unresolved: Handelsbanken’s &gt;70% premium and SSAB’s anchored discount continue to reflect flow and structural frictions rather than voting economics, offering the clearest dispersion opportunities into 2026.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December'25 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-December, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have widened, 11 tightened) with few changes in the trends.</li>
<li>Telecom Italia savers are trading at 18.5% premium to ords; Handelsbanken B at 32.4% premium to A. The discount of Grifols B has tightened, some await a comeback from Brookfield. </li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, Roche, SSAB Svenska Stal, Telecom Italia.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-December, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have widened, 11 tightened) with few changes in the trends.
Telecom Italia savers are trading at 18.5% premium to ords; Handelsbanken B at 32.4% premium to A. The discount of Grifols B has tightened, some await a comeback from Brookfield. 
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, Roche, SSAB Svenska Stal, Telecom Italia.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January'25 Report

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In this report we analyzed data from technical publications to review leadership in RNA related therapeutics. We have listed the top thirty.</li>
<li>In terms of quantity and quality of innovations <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alnylam-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2191:1" rel="noopener">Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US)</a>  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moderna-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28744:1" rel="noopener">Moderna (MRNA US)</a>  are best positioned. Among private companies Senda Biosciences screened well. </li>
<li>Partnerships and acquisitions  between RNA startups and big pharma as well as between big pharma and big pharma highlight RNA's potential versatility, risks and the necessity for RNA related exposure.</li>
</ul>


In this report we analyzed data from technical publications to review leadership in RNA related therapeutics. We have listed the top thirty.
In terms of quantity and quality of innovations Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US)  and Moderna (MRNA US)  are best positioned. Among private companies Senda Biosciences screened well. 
Partnerships and acquisitions  between RNA startups and big pharma as well as between big pharma and big pharma highlight RNA's potential versatility, risks and the necessity for RNA related exposure.


Who Are Leading the Charge in the RNAissance of Medicine

<ul>
<li>Novartis offers an agreed €68/share, 89% premium, for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/morphosys-ag-91f7c8f8-f418-4db5-953e-ec2206d64e67" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27120:1" rel="noopener">MorphoSys AG (MOR US)</a> in a bet that pelabrisib could become a blockbuster to treat myelofibrosis (possibly reaching peak sales of $1.1-1.5 billion).</li>
<li>Considering that the shares of Morphosys were trading in the low teens in November, I believe that shareholders will be happy to part with the shares.</li>
<li>Spread (gross/annualised) is 4.65%/18.09% (assuming settlement by 20 May). Novartis believes pelabrisib is definitely worth the risk. <strong>Long.</strong>
</li>
</ul>


Novartis offers an agreed €68/share, 89% premium, for MorphoSys AG (MOR US) in a bet that pelabrisib could become a blockbuster to treat myelofibrosis (possibly reaching peak sales of $1.1-1.5 billion).
Considering that the shares of Morphosys were trading in the low teens in November, I believe that shareholders will be happy to part with the shares.
Spread (gross/annualised) is 4.65%/18.09% (assuming settlement by 20 May). Novartis believes pelabrisib is definitely worth the risk. Long.



Novartis Strikes for Possible Myelofibrosis Blockbuster

<ul>
<li>Since mid-November, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10 widened).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen (still the most interesting situation).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-November, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10 widened).
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen (still the most interesting situation).
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December‘23 Report

United States

Roche Holding AG develops and manufactures pharmaceutical and diagnostic products. The Company produces prescription drugs in the areas of cardiovascular, infectious, autoimmune, respiratory diseases, dermatology, metabolic disorders, oncology, transplantation, and the central nervous system. Roche Holding serves customers worldwide.

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Roche Holding (ROG SW)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December'25 Report

December added technical noise, not thesis risk: median spreads were unchanged, convergence paused but intact, marginal voting premia erode, and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January'25 Report

Since mid-December, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have widened,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Who Are Leading the Charge in the RNAissance of Medicine

RNA therapeutics: We analyze the field and spotlight top players driving this precision medicine, for tackling rare diseases with innovative solutions

Pyari Menon

Novartis Strikes for Possible Myelofibrosis Blockbuster

Novartis offers premium for MorphoSys AG in a bet on pelabrisib as a potential blockbuster for myelofibrosis treatment. Shareholders are likely to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December‘23 Report

Since mid-November, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December'25 Report

December added technical noise, not thesis risk: median spreads were unchanged, convergence paused but intact, marginal voting premia erode, and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January'25 Report

Since mid-December, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have widened,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Who Are Leading the Charge in the RNAissance of Medicine

RNA therapeutics: We analyze the field and spotlight top players driving this precision medicine, for tackling rare diseases with innovative solutions

Pyari Menon

Novartis Strikes for Possible Myelofibrosis Blockbuster

​Novartis offers premium for MorphoSys AG in a bet on pelabrisib as a potential blockbuster for myelofibrosis treatment. Shareholders are likely to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December‘23 Report

Since mid-November, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Novartis offers premium for MorphoSys AG in a bet on pelabrisib as a potential blockbuster for myelofibrosis treatment. Shareholders are likely to...