Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Volkswagen AG’s first quarter of 2025 exhibited a blend of advancements and challenges.</li>
<li>On the positive side, the company made significant progress in implementing its strategic product renewal, unveiling several new models at the Shanghai Auto Show and in other markets.</li>
<li>Sales revenue rose by 3%, with a notable 30% increase in Western Europe.</li>
</ul>


Volkswagen AG’s first quarter of 2025 exhibited a blend of advancements and challenges.
On the positive side, the company made significant progress in implementing its strategic product renewal, unveiling several new models at the Shanghai Auto Show and in other markets.
Sales revenue rose by 3%, with a notable 30% increase in Western Europe.


Volkswagen Group: Electrifying Pivot & Ruthless Restructuring Redefine the Future!

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since mid-November, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10 widened).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen (still the most interesting situation).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-November, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10 widened).
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen (still the most interesting situation).
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December‘23 Report

<ul>
<li>Volkswagen AG is navigating one of its most complex periods in recent memory, marked by intensifying trade tensions, costly restructuring, and strategic recalibration across key markets.</li>
<li>The company’s Q1 2025 results and full-year 2024 earnings call paint a picture of a resilient but deeply challenged automaker.</li>
<li>Operating profit dropped nearly 40% YoY to €2.8 billion, primarily due to restructuring expenses and early impacts of U.S. tariffs on vehicle shipments, while full-year profit after tax fell 31% to €12.4 billion.</li>
</ul>


Volkswagen AG is navigating one of its most complex periods in recent memory, marked by intensifying trade tensions, costly restructuring, and strategic recalibration across key markets.
The company’s Q1 2025 results and full-year 2024 earnings call paint a picture of a resilient but deeply challenged automaker.
Operating profit dropped nearly 40% YoY to €2.8 billion, primarily due to restructuring expenses and early impacts of U.S. tariffs on vehicle shipments, while full-year profit after tax fell 31% to €12.4 billion.


Volkswagen's Battle Under Pressure: Tariffs, Trade Woes & The Hidden Upside!

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Global fund positioning in the Motor Vehicles sector has entered a fresh decline following a revival between 2020 and 2023.</li>
<li>A record-low 10% of active Global funds are now overweight, with the sector holding an average underweight of -1.41%, making it the 4th largest industry-level underweight among active managers.</li>
<li>Long-Term declines in Japanese autos have hit new lows, while German and US autos have drifted lower since 2023.</li>
</ul>


Global fund positioning in the Motor Vehicles sector has entered a fresh decline following a revival between 2020 and 2023.
A record-low 10% of active Global funds are now overweight, with the sector holding an average underweight of -1.41%, making it the 4th largest industry-level underweight among active managers.
Long-Term declines in Japanese autos have hit new lows, while German and US autos have drifted lower since 2023.


Global Autos:  Falling Investor Confidence

Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Porsche SE is trading at a 35.3% discount to NAV, vs. 32.4% long-term average, implying a 68% probability that Porsche SE will be liable for c. €6.5 billion legal claims.</li>
<li>I think this is too harsh. Shares are trading at a Fwd P/E of 2.5x and a dividend yield of 7.8%, which I consider very attractive. </li>
<li>Porsche SE presents an attractive opportunity to gain exposure to Volkswagen and Porsche AG. Porsche SE is focusing on deleveraging which should drive a reduction in the discount.</li>
</ul>


Porsche SE is trading at a 35.3% discount to NAV, vs. 32.4% long-term average, implying a 68% probability that Porsche SE will be liable for c. €6.5 billion legal claims.
I think this is too harsh. Shares are trading at a Fwd P/E of 2.5x and a dividend yield of 7.8%, which I consider very attractive. 
Porsche SE presents an attractive opportunity to gain exposure to Volkswagen and Porsche AG. Porsche SE is focusing on deleveraging which should drive a reduction in the discount.


Porsche Automobile Holding: H1, Model Update, Discount to NAV

Germany

Volkswagen AG manufactures and sells vehicles. The Company offers economy and luxury automobiles, sports cars, trucks, and commercial vehicles. Volkswagen serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Volkswagen (Pref) (VOW3 GR)

Volkswagen Group: Electrifying Pivot & Ruthless Restructuring Redefine the Future!

On the positive side, the company made significant progress in implementing its strategic product renewal, unveiling several new models at the...

Baptista Research

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December‘23 Report

Since mid-November, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Volkswagen's Battle Under Pressure: Tariffs, Trade Woes & The Hidden Upside!

Volkswagen AG is navigating one of its most complex periods in recent memory, marked by intensifying trade tensions, costly restructuring, and...

Baptista Research

Global Autos: Falling Investor Confidence

Tesla overtakes Stellantis as the most widely held Auto company. General Motors is ahead of the almost uninvestable Ford Motor Co.

Steven Holden

Porsche Automobile Holding: H1, Model Update, Discount to NAV

Porsche SE is trading at a 35.3% discount to NAV, vs. 32.4% long-term average, implying a 68% probability that Porsche SE will be liable for c....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)