European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Novartis published its offer document for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/morphosys-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21675:1" rel="noopener">MorphoSys AG (MOR GR)</a> (US: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/morphosys-ag-91f7c8f8-f418-4db5-953e-ec2206d64e67" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27120:1" rel="noopener">MorphoSys AG (MOR US)</a>) following approval by BaFin. The acceptance period has commenced on 11 April, and will expire on 13 May.</li>
<li>I remain confident NVS' acquisition of MOR closes on track. I maintain my TP at €68/share, $18.25/ADR offer price, as deal will highly likely close in H1, in my view.</li>
<li>As of 11 April, gross spread is 0.82% and the estimated annual return is 7.78%. Long and tender.
</li>
</ul>


Novartis published its offer document for MorphoSys AG (MOR GR) (US: MorphoSys AG (MOR US)) following approval by BaFin. The acceptance period has commenced on 11 April, and will expire on 13 May.
I remain confident NVS' acquisition of MOR closes on track. I maintain my TP at €68/share, $18.25/ADR offer price, as deal will highly likely close in H1, in my view.
As of 11 April, gross spread is 0.82% and the estimated annual return is 7.78%. Long and tender.



Novartis/Morphosys: Start of Offer Period

<ul>
<li>Novartis offers an agreed €68/share, 89% premium, for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/morphosys-ag-91f7c8f8-f418-4db5-953e-ec2206d64e67" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27120:1" rel="noopener">MorphoSys AG (MOR US)</a> in a bet that pelabrisib could become a blockbuster to treat myelofibrosis (possibly reaching peak sales of $1.1-1.5 billion).</li>
<li>Considering that the shares of Morphosys were trading in the low teens in November, I believe that shareholders will be happy to part with the shares.</li>
<li>Spread (gross/annualised) is 4.65%/18.09% (assuming settlement by 20 May). Novartis believes pelabrisib is definitely worth the risk. Long.
</li>
</ul>


Novartis offers an agreed €68/share, 89% premium, for MorphoSys AG (MOR US) in a bet that pelabrisib could become a blockbuster to treat myelofibrosis (possibly reaching peak sales of $1.1-1.5 billion).
Considering that the shares of Morphosys were trading in the low teens in November, I believe that shareholders will be happy to part with the shares.
Spread (gross/annualised) is 4.65%/18.09% (assuming settlement by 20 May). Novartis believes pelabrisib is definitely worth the risk. Long.



Novartis Strikes for Possible Myelofibrosis Blockbuster

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The CSRC has announced five capital market cooperation measures for the Hong Kong Southbound Connect programs including  RMB dual counters and REITs. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s current implied stub value and simple ratio are both highly elevated.</li>
<li>A simple <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>model says "this doesn't present me with enough upside to warrant it unless I am also really bullish <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>."</li>
</ul>


The CSRC has announced five capital market cooperation measures for the Hong Kong Southbound Connect programs including  RMB dual counters and REITs. 

Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s current implied stub value and simple ratio are both highly elevated.
A simple Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)model says "this doesn't present me with enough upside to warrant it unless I am also really bullish Oriental Land (4661 JP)."


Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

<ul>
<li>The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes that could take place between now and the end of the June 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Currently, I see 7 ADDs and 7 DELs for the SE600 index. There are more names just outside the border requiring small price changes to get involved in index changes. </li>
</ul>


The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes that could take place between now and the end of the June 2024 index rebal event.
Currently, I see 7 ADDs and 7 DELs for the SE600 index. There are more names just outside the border requiring small price changes to get involved in index changes. 


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar 24: 7 Changes Likely; Expected ADDs Could Outperform Expected DELs

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX index and the MDAX index in the run up to the June 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>I currently see no changes for the DAX index but there could be one change for the MDAX index.</li>
<li>M&amp;A candidate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/morphosys-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21675:1" rel="noopener">MorphoSys AG (MOR GR)</a> could be deleted in the run up to the June 2024 review.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX index and the MDAX index in the run up to the June 2024 index rebal event.
I currently see no changes for the DAX index but there could be one change for the MDAX index.
M&amp;A candidate MorphoSys AG (MOR GR) could be deleted in the run up to the June 2024 review.


Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: Traton Could Outperform the DAX Index

Germany

MorphoSys AG operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company discovers and develops differentiated therapies and medicines for the patients suffering from cancer, inflammations, and autoimmune diseases. MorphoSys serves customers in Germany.

MorphoSys AG (MOR GR)

Novartis/Morphosys: Start of Offer Period

Novartis offers to acquire MorphoSys AG with acceptance period until May 13, expected to close in H1 with a TP of €68/share, $18.25/ADR. Long and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Novartis Strikes for Possible Myelofibrosis Blockbuster

Novartis offers premium for MorphoSys AG in a bet on pelabrisib as a potential blockbuster for myelofibrosis treatment. Shareholders are likely to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar 24: 7 Changes Likely; Expected ADDs Could Outperform Expected DELs

My latest estimate for one-way flow is US$95mn. The expected ADDs have strong positive momentum while the expected DELs have strong negative momentum.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: Traton Could Outperform the DAX Index

Commercial vehicle manufacturer Traton is a strong candidate for MDAX addition. The expected index flow could act as a catalyst and help the stock...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Novartis/Morphosys: Start of Offer Period

​Novartis offers to acquire MorphoSys AG with acceptance period until May 13, expected to close in H1 with a TP of €68/share, $18.25/ADR. Long and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Novartis Strikes for Possible Myelofibrosis Blockbuster

​Novartis offers premium for MorphoSys AG in a bet on pelabrisib as a potential blockbuster for myelofibrosis treatment. Shareholders are likely to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar 24: 7 Changes Likely; Expected ADDs Could Outperform Expected DELs

My latest estimate for one-way flow is US$95mn. The expected ADDs have strong positive momentum while the expected DELs have strong negative momentum.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: Traton Could Outperform the DAX Index

Commercial vehicle manufacturer Traton is a strong candidate for MDAX addition. The expected index flow could act as a catalyst and help the stock...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Novartis offers to acquire MorphoSys AG with acceptance period until May 13, expected to close in H1 with a TP of €68/share, $18.25/ADR. Long and...

Novartis offers premium for MorphoSys AG in a bet on pelabrisib as a potential blockbuster for myelofibrosis treatment. Shareholders are likely to...