Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia's results and guidance sparked a massive rally in the shares, marking one of the largest single-day increases in market cap in U.S. stock market history.</li>
<li>The company sees a multi-year growth cycle of data center upgrades ahead. Key supply chain partners TSMC and ASML are rising as well.</li>
<li>Wiwynn in Taiwan should be a key winner. We also highlight a potential wildcard smallcap AI play that we will investigate further.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia's results and guidance sparked a massive rally in the shares, marking one of the largest single-day increases in market cap in U.S. stock market history.
The company sees a multi-year growth cycle of data center upgrades ahead. Key supply chain partners TSMC and ASML are rising as well.
Wiwynn in Taiwan should be a key winner. We also highlight a potential wildcard smallcap AI play that we will investigate further.


Nvidia Results Blow-Out: Multi-Year Growth Ahead; Wiwynn in Taiwan, Plus a Smallcap Wildcard AI Play

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This past week saw dramatic moves in Japanese stock markets. TOPIX +3.1% N225 +4.8% - up the 6th week in a row - closing at their highest in 33 years. </li>
<li>Flows were positive the week before, and I expect we'll see next week they were positive this past week. But most striking was the interplay between Nikkei 225 and TOPIX.</li>
<li>If foreign inflows increase, Nikkei is likely to outperform TOPIX both because of its existence and previous use, and its construction. And that means watching one's trades, shorts, and executions.</li>
</ul>


This past week saw dramatic moves in Japanese stock markets. TOPIX +3.1% N225 +4.8% - up the 6th week in a row - closing at their highest in 33 years. 
Flows were positive the week before, and I expect we'll see next week they were positive this past week. But most striking was the interplay between Nikkei 225 and TOPIX.
If foreign inflows increase, Nikkei is likely to outperform TOPIX both because of its existence and previous use, and its construction. And that means watching one's trades, shorts, and executions.


Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

<ul>
<li>Q1’23 revenues of ¥558.2 billion, up 19% sequentially and up 1% YoY</li>
<li>FY24 outlook down 23% YoY with H2 showing a modest improvement compared to H1</li>
<li>R&amp;D &amp; CapEx investment increasing significantly while YoY revenue set to decline by 23%</li>
</ul>


Q1’23 revenues of ¥558.2 billion, up 19% sequentially and up 1% YoY
FY24 outlook down 23% YoY with H2 showing a modest improvement compared to H1
R&amp;D &amp; CapEx investment increasing significantly while YoY revenue set to decline by 23%


Tokyo Electron. Betting Big On MAGIC Despite The Downturn

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Intel CEO Tan summoned to Washington for meetings will likely result in a bigger domestic fab push.</li>
<li>Micron beats on HBM, Kioxia on NAND - sets a good tone for memory overall.</li>
<li>NVDA selling Blackwell in China positive for substrate supplier Ibiden.</li>
</ul>


Intel CEO Tan summoned to Washington for meetings will likely result in a bigger domestic fab push.
Micron beats on HBM, Kioxia on NAND - sets a good tone for memory overall.
NVDA selling Blackwell in China positive for substrate supplier Ibiden.


Japan Morning Connection: AMD and NVDA Set to Pay 15% of China Chip Sales to US for Export Licenses

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>TEL beats its 1H25 guidance by 12% at Net Income level, increases FY25 Net Income forecasts by 10%, increases dividend by 10%, plus a small share buyback (0.8% of outstanding). </li>
<li>Positive change in the product mix: Legacy capex (incl China) to decline in 2025, AI-related Capex to increase by ~50% YoY.</li>
<li>What’s not to like? The stock is trading at 21x FY25 EPS, 18x FY26, Consensus expects 34% EPS growth in FY25, 22% in FY26. </li>
</ul>


TEL beats its 1H25 guidance by 12% at Net Income level, increases FY25 Net Income forecasts by 10%, increases dividend by 10%, plus a small share buyback (0.8% of outstanding). 
Positive change in the product mix: Legacy capex (incl China) to decline in 2025, AI-related Capex to increase by ~50% YoY.
What’s not to like? The stock is trading at 21x FY25 EPS, 18x FY26, Consensus expects 34% EPS growth in FY25, 22% in FY26. 


Tokyo Electron Beats Its 2Q25 (Sep-24), Raises FY25 Forecast, Increases Dividend, and a Buyback

Japan

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

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Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)

Nvidia Results Blow-Out: Multi-Year Growth Ahead; Wiwynn in Taiwan, Plus a Smallcap Wildcard AI Play

The company sees US$1 trillion of data center upgrades ahead. Our AI Leaders Basket constituents TSMC and ASML are rising as well.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Nikkei 225 Vs TOPIX Dynamics

Last week, Japan's indices hit new 33yr highs. "Japan is back" seems to be a new narrative, and that is creating new inflows. Some of that has...

Travis Lundy

Tokyo Electron. Betting Big On MAGIC Despite The Downturn

Q1’23 revenues of ¥558.2 billion, up 19% sequentially and up 1% YoY. FY24 outlook down 23% YoY with H2 marginally better than H1.R&D & CapEx...

William Keating

Japan Morning Connection: AMD and NVDA Set to Pay 15% of China Chip Sales to US for Export Licenses

JP still needs to price in large cap tech gains in the US from Friday, Intel up after Trump's meeting with CEO Tan, positive for Ibiden if NVDA is...

Andrew Jackson

Tokyo Electron Beats Its 2Q25 (Sep-24), Raises FY25 Forecast, Increases Dividend, and a Buyback

TEL exceeds 1H25 guidance, raises forecasts and dividend, with positive product mix shift towards AI-related Capex. Stock trading at attractive...

Nicolas Baratte

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Nvidia Results Blow-Out: Multi-Year Growth Ahead; Wiwynn in Taiwan, Plus a Smallcap Wildcard AI Play

The company sees US$1 trillion of data center upgrades ahead. Our AI Leaders Basket constituents TSMC and ASML are rising as well.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Nikkei 225 Vs TOPIX Dynamics

Last week, Japan's indices hit new 33yr highs. "Japan is back" seems to be a new narrative, and that is creating new inflows. Some of that has...

Travis Lundy

Tokyo Electron. Betting Big On MAGIC Despite The Downturn

Q1’23 revenues of ¥558.2 billion, up 19% sequentially and up 1% YoY. FY24 outlook down 23% YoY with H2 marginally better than H1.R&D & CapEx...

William Keating

Japan Morning Connection: AMD and NVDA Set to Pay 15% of China Chip Sales to US for Export Licenses

JP still needs to price in large cap tech gains in the US from Friday, Intel up after Trump's meeting with CEO Tan, positive for Ibiden if NVDA is...

Andrew Jackson

Tokyo Electron Beats Its 2Q25 (Sep-24), Raises FY25 Forecast, Increases Dividend, and a Buyback

​TEL exceeds 1H25 guidance, raises forecasts and dividend, with positive product mix shift towards AI-related Capex. Stock trading at attractive...

Nicolas Baratte

TEL exceeds 1H25 guidance, raises forecasts and dividend, with positive product mix shift towards AI-related Capex. Stock trading at attractive...