Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Applied Materials recently concluded their fiscal year of 2025 with encouraging results, achieving record highs in revenue, gross margin dollars, operating profit, and earnings per share, despite facing significant headwinds.</li><li>The company reported a 4% year-over-year growth in revenue to $28.4 billion.</li><li>Notably, the Semiconductor Systems and Applied Global Services (AGS) divisions posted record revenues, even amidst tightened trade restrictions that notably impacted their market presence in China.</li></ul>

Applied Materials recently concluded their fiscal year of 2025 with encouraging results, achieving record highs in revenue, gross margin dollars, operating profit, and earnings per share, despite facing significant headwinds.The company reported a 4% year-over-year growth in revenue to $28.4 billion.Notably, the Semiconductor Systems and Applied Global Services (AGS) divisions posted record revenues, even amidst tightened trade restrictions that notably impacted their market presence in China.

Applied Materials: How ICAPS, PVD Innovation, & AI Packaging Are Expanding Its Moat!

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in December but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 7.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$5.5bn. There are 3 stocks with over half a yard to trade.</li>
<li>The largest flows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/micron-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13382:1" rel="noopener">Micron Technology</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applied-materials-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:283:1" rel="noopener">Applied Materials</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lam-research-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1116:1" rel="noopener">Lam Research</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/texas-instruments-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18804:1" rel="noopener">Texas Instruments</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR</a>. </li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in December but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 7.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$5.5bn. There are 3 stocks with over half a yard to trade.
The largest flows will be in NVIDIA, Micron Technology, Applied Materials, Lam Research, Intel Corp, Texas Instruments and TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR. 


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$5.5bn Trade

<ul><li>The U.S. government has introduced new export restrictions targeting the shipment of advanced chipmaking equipment to China.</li><li>These rules, enforced by the Bureau of Industry and Security, have landed a heavy blow on Applied Materials, the world’s largest supplier of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.</li><li>The company now anticipates a significant $710 million revenue shortfall: $110 million in Q4 2025 and an additional $600 million in 2026.</li></ul>

The U.S. government has introduced new export restrictions targeting the shipment of advanced chipmaking equipment to China.These rules, enforced by the Bureau of Industry and Security, have landed a heavy blow on Applied Materials, the world’s largest supplier of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.The company now anticipates a significant $710 million revenue shortfall: $110 million in Q4 2025 and an additional $600 million in 2026.

Applied Materials Hit By U.S. Export Crackdown: Could This Derail The Semiconductor Equipment Boom?

<ul><li>Applied Materials Inc. recently reported their third fiscal quarter results for 2025, showcasing a record-breaking performance across semiconductor systems and services.</li><li>The company experienced robust demand, leading to $7.3 billion in revenue, an 8% increase year-over-year.</li><li>Notably, non-GAAP gross margins reached nearly 49%, spurred by favorable pricing and product mix.</li></ul>

Applied Materials Inc. recently reported their third fiscal quarter results for 2025, showcasing a record-breaking performance across semiconductor systems and services.The company experienced robust demand, leading to $7.3 billion in revenue, an 8% increase year-over-year.Notably, non-GAAP gross margins reached nearly 49%, spurred by favorable pricing and product mix.

Applied Materials (AMAT): Advanced Packaging Business Expansion & Key Growth Levers!

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>AMAT reported FY Q325 revenues of $7.3 billion, up 3% QoQ, up 8% YoY and ~$100 million above the midpoint of the guided range</li>
<li>Looking ahead, AMAT forecasted current quarter revenues of $6.7 billion at the midpoint, down 8.3% QoQ and down 4.9% YoY</li>
<li>The China slump was not unexpected, but the leading edge logic drop was definitely a surprise</li>
</ul>


AMAT reported FY Q325 revenues of $7.3 billion, up 3% QoQ, up 8% YoY and ~$100 million above the midpoint of the guided range
Looking ahead, AMAT forecasted current quarter revenues of $6.7 billion at the midpoint, down 8.3% QoQ and down 4.9% YoY
The China slump was not unexpected, but the leading edge logic drop was definitely a surprise


AMAT Q325. Tanking On Tepid Leading Edge Outlook & China Woes

United States

Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers include semiconductor wafer and integrated circuit manufacturers, flat panel liquid crystal displays, solar photovoltaic cells and modules and other electronic devices manufacturers.

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Applied Materials (AMAT US)

Applied Materials: How ICAPS, PVD Innovation, & AI Packaging Are Expanding Its Moat!

Applied Materials recently concluded their fiscal year of 2025 with encouraging results, achieving record highs in revenue, gross margin dollars,...

Baptista Research

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$5.5bn Trade

There are no constituent changes for the index in Dec but there are float and capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.5% resulting in a...

Brian Freitas

Applied Materials Hit By U.S. Export Crackdown: Could This Derail The Semiconductor Equipment Boom?

The U.S. government has introduced new export restrictions targeting the shipment of advanced chipmaking equipment to China. These rules, enforced...

Baptista Research

Applied Materials (AMAT): Advanced Packaging Business Expansion & Key Growth Levers!

Applied Materials Inc. recently reported their third fiscal quarter results for 2025, showcasing a record-breaking performance across...

Baptista Research

AMAT Q325. Tanking On Tepid Leading Edge Outlook & China Woes

The China slump was not unexpected, but the leading edge logic drop was definitely a surprise. It might also not be the last surprise we see this...

William Keating

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