Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Calendar 2026 systems growth raised from 20% to 30%. Deane’s framing: not a pull-in from 2027. It is greenfield build-out plus aggressive in-fab repurposing</li>
<li>Eight-Plus quarters of visibility, 100-plus active customer projects. Explicitly contrasted this with the post-COVID ramp, that one was unexpected, this one is expected and being collaboratively planned with customers</li>
<li>AGS long-term growth target was raised from low double-digit CAGR to sustainable mid-teens, and Deane signaled potentially above mid-teens this fiscal year (AGS is running at 17% YoY through 1H)</li>
</ul>


Calendar 2026 systems growth raised from 20% to 30%. Deane’s framing: not a pull-in from 2027. It is greenfield build-out plus aggressive in-fab repurposing
Eight-Plus quarters of visibility, 100-plus active customer projects. Explicitly contrasted this with the post-COVID ramp, that one was unexpected, this one is expected and being collaboratively planned with customers
AGS long-term growth target was raised from low double-digit CAGR to sustainable mid-teens, and Deane signaled potentially above mid-teens this fiscal year (AGS is running at 17% YoY through 1H)


Applied Materials @ JPM 54th Annual TMT. Key Takeaways & Full Transcript

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>AMAT was the last SPE vendor to report, like others it has revised up its revenue outlook.</li>
<li>Similarly, estimates for the end-market, the semiconductor market, are going up, supported by a strong 1Q earnings season, and strong guidance.</li>
<li>Positive: growth keeps beating expectations. Negative: peak growth in 2026-27, valuations, maybe?</li>
</ul>


AMAT was the last SPE vendor to report, like others it has revised up its revenue outlook.
Similarly, estimates for the end-market, the semiconductor market, are going up, supported by a strong 1Q earnings season, and strong guidance.
Positive: growth keeps beating expectations. Negative: peak growth in 2026-27, valuations, maybe?


Semiconductor Production Equipment (SPE): All Big Firms Have Increased Revenue Forecasts

<ul>
<li>AMAT reported Q2 FY26 revenue of a record $7.91 billion, up 11% YoY, up 12.8% QoQ and roughly $260 million above the guided midpoint</li>
<li>AMAT guided Q3 FY26 revenue of $8.95 billion at the midpoint, roughly +13% QoQ, and non-GAAP EPS of $3.36 +/- $0.20</li>
<li>Applied Materials delivered record quarterly performance, and we now expect our semiconductor equipment business to grow more than 30 percent in calendar 2026. Yikes!</li>
</ul>


AMAT reported Q2 FY26 revenue of a record $7.91 billion, up 11% YoY, up 12.8% QoQ and roughly $260 million above the guided midpoint
AMAT guided Q3 FY26 revenue of $8.95 billion at the midpoint, roughly +13% QoQ, and non-GAAP EPS of $3.36 +/- $0.20
Applied Materials delivered record quarterly performance, and we now expect our semiconductor equipment business to grow more than 30 percent in calendar 2026. Yikes!


AMAT Q2 FY26. Raising WFE Guidance From 20% YoY Growth To 30%. Yikes!

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Applied Materials has moved to strengthen its position in advanced semiconductor packaging by agreeing to acquire the NEXX business from ASMPT Limited, a supplier of large-area advanced packaging deposition equipment based in Billerica, Massachusetts.</li><li>The transaction, announced in May 2026, is expected to close in the coming months, subject to customary conditions, and does not require regulatory approval.</li><li>The NEXX team will join Applied’s Semiconductor Products Group, adding panel-level packaging capabilities at a time when AI accelerators are becoming larger, more power-hungry, and increasingly dependent on heterogeneous integration.</li></ul>

Applied Materials has moved to strengthen its position in advanced semiconductor packaging by agreeing to acquire the NEXX business from ASMPT Limited, a supplier of large-area advanced packaging deposition equipment based in Billerica, Massachusetts.The transaction, announced in May 2026, is expected to close in the coming months, subject to customary conditions, and does not require regulatory approval.The NEXX team will join Applied’s Semiconductor Products Group, adding panel-level packaging capabilities at a time when AI accelerators are becoming larger, more power-hungry, and increasingly dependent on heterogeneous integration.

Applied Materials Takeover Strategy Around NEXX Could Change Advanced Chip Manufacturing!

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>During MOI correction period, global semi equipment and manufacturing vendors might under-perform semi product companies on sales/earnings and share price performance in next 6 months given utilization remains below 80%.</li>
<li>A healthy MOI correction in PC/smartphone semi might result in global logic MOI to fall to 3.7-3.8 months in 3Q23, down 15% q/q and 8% y/y, heading to historical low. </li>
<li>China fabless reduced MOI to 6.4 months in 3Q23, down 16% q/q and 26% y/y. Although 2x over 3.5 months low, we expect 4-5 months in future due to restrictions.</li>
</ul>


During MOI correction period, global semi equipment and manufacturing vendors might under-perform semi product companies on sales/earnings and share price performance in next 6 months given utilization remains below 80%.
A healthy MOI correction in PC/smartphone semi might result in global logic MOI to fall to 3.7-3.8 months in 3Q23, down 15% q/q and 8% y/y, heading to historical low. 
China fabless reduced MOI to 6.4 months in 3Q23, down 16% q/q and 26% y/y. Although 2x over 3.5 months low, we expect 4-5 months in future due to restrictions.


More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction

United States

Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers include semiconductor wafer and integrated circuit manufacturers, flat panel liquid crystal displays, solar photovoltaic cells and modules and other electronic devices manufacturers.

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Applied Materials (AMAT US)

Applied Materials @ JPM 54th Annual TMT. Key Takeaways & Full Transcript

AGS long-term growth target was raised from low double-digit CAGR to sustainable mid-teens, and Deane signaled potentially above mid-teens this...

William Keating

Semiconductor Production Equipment (SPE): All Big Firms Have Increased Revenue Forecasts

AMAT raises revenue outlook along with positive semiconductor market growth, but concerns arise over peak growth in 2026-27 and valuations.

Nicolas Baratte

AMAT Q2 FY26. Raising WFE Guidance From 20% YoY Growth To 30%. Yikes!

Applied Materials delivered record quarterly performance, and we now expect our semiconductor equipment business to grow more than 30 percent in...

William Keating

Applied Materials Takeover Strategy Around NEXX Could Change Advanced Chip Manufacturing!

Applied Materials has moved to strengthen its position in advanced semiconductor packaging by agreeing to acquire the NEXX business from ASMPT...

Baptista Research

More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction

More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction. During the period, global semi equipment and manufacturing...

Andrew Lu

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Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Applied Materials @ JPM 54th Annual TMT. Key Takeaways & Full Transcript

AGS long-term growth target was raised from low double-digit CAGR to sustainable mid-teens, and Deane signaled potentially above mid-teens this...

William Keating

Semiconductor Production Equipment (SPE): All Big Firms Have Increased Revenue Forecasts

​AMAT raises revenue outlook along with positive semiconductor market growth, but concerns arise over peak growth in 2026-27 and valuations.

Nicolas Baratte

AMAT Q2 FY26. Raising WFE Guidance From 20% YoY Growth To 30%. Yikes!

Applied Materials delivered record quarterly performance, and we now expect our semiconductor equipment business to grow more than 30 percent in...

William Keating

Applied Materials Takeover Strategy Around NEXX Could Change Advanced Chip Manufacturing!

Applied Materials has moved to strengthen its position in advanced semiconductor packaging by agreeing to acquire the NEXX business from ASMPT...

Baptista Research

More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction

More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction. During the period, global semi equipment and manufacturing...

Andrew Lu

AMAT raises revenue outlook along with positive semiconductor market growth, but concerns arise over peak growth in 2026-27 and valuations.