External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>3Q25 results were a miss, but that was mostly due to higher delivery costs.</li><li>Even though this is negative on profit in the short run, the impact could be positive in the long run, as Luckin Coffee’s customer retention is much higher than its peers (Cotti’s SSSG in 3Q25 has slowed down massively based on our channel check, while that for Luckin Coffee is not only fast but stable).</li><li>Moreover, we do understand the high base could kick in since 4Q25E and into FY26E, but Luckin Coffee is equipped with many company-specific growth drivers so that its SSSG should still be positive in our view. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

3Q25 results were a miss, but that was mostly due to higher delivery costs.Even though this is negative on profit in the short run, the impact could be positive in the long run, as Luckin Coffee’s customer retention is much higher than its peers (Cotti’s SSSG in 3Q25 has slowed down massively based on our channel check, while that for Luckin Coffee is not only fast but stable).Moreover, we do understand the high base could kick in since 4Q25E and into FY26E, but Luckin Coffee is equipped with many company-specific growth drivers so that its SSSG should still be positive in our view. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) - There Are Still Multiple Growth Drivers in FY26E

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>Luckin reported C2Q25 revenue 9%/11% higher than our est./cons., and non-GAAP OP 37%/17% higher than our est./cons., driven by the extra demand from food delivery platforms' promotional campaigns. </li>
<li>As we now expect the food delivery war to persist, we raise Luckin's C2H25 revenue/OP estimate by 6%/18% and raise the TP to US$45.</li>
<li>Luckin, however, managed margin and expenses well to deliver the profit beat;</li>
</ul>


Luckin reported C2Q25 revenue 9%/11% higher than our est./cons., and non-GAAP OP 37%/17% higher than our est./cons., driven by the extra demand from food delivery platforms' promotional campaigns. 
As we now expect the food delivery war to persist, we raise Luckin's C2H25 revenue/OP estimate by 6%/18% and raise the TP to US$45.
Luckin, however, managed margin and expenses well to deliver the profit beat;


[Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$45) TP Change]:Solid Execution Showcases Consolidator Potential

<ul><li>2Q25 results were a beat and the underlying picture, in our view, which was just exceptional, could fuel a decent sales growth in 2H25E.</li><li>However, because the surge in delivery expenses may continue and some subsidies may be provided to the franchisees, OP margin in 2H25E may experience some pressure.</li><li>However, overall speaking, a reasonably fast sales growth (CMBI est. 41%) and NP growth (CMBI est. 43%) in FY25E is still highly possible. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

2Q25 results were a beat and the underlying picture, in our view, which was just exceptional, could fuel a decent sales growth in 2H25E.However, because the surge in delivery expenses may continue and some subsidies may be provided to the franchisees, OP margin in 2H25E may experience some pressure.However, overall speaking, a reasonably fast sales growth (CMBI est. 41%) and NP growth (CMBI est. 43%) in FY25E is still highly possible. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) - Sales Are Booming but Costs Are Also Rising

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Luckin Coffee reported strong financial results for the first quarter of 2025, underlining significant year-over-year growth in both revenue and profitability.</li><li>The company revealed a 41% increase in total net revenues, reaching approximately RMB 8.9 billion, mainly driven by a 42% rise in gross merchandise value (GMV) amounting to RMB 10.4 billion.</li><li>The growth in revenue was primarily fueled by expanded product sales through increased customer transactions, supported by an extensive store network.</li></ul>

Luckin Coffee reported strong financial results for the first quarter of 2025, underlining significant year-over-year growth in both revenue and profitability.The company revealed a 41% increase in total net revenues, reaching approximately RMB 8.9 billion, mainly driven by a 42% rise in gross merchandise value (GMV) amounting to RMB 10.4 billion.The growth in revenue was primarily fueled by expanded product sales through increased customer transactions, supported by an extensive store network.

Luckin Coffee’s U.S. Invasion: A Brewing Storm for Starbucks!

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luckin-coffee-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28046:1" rel="noopener">Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US)</a> concluded FY23 with a 203.3% surge in non-GAAP net profit to Rmb3.2bn, benefiting from higher store count and monthly transacting customers.</li>
<li>Luckin plans to lift store count by at least 23%, with total to reach over 20,000 in FY24. Product innovation, promotional discount reduction, and better store efficiency are profit drivers. </li>
<li>Net cash reached Rmb3.8bn, or 7% of market cap. With a consensus EPS forecast of 28% CAGR in the next two years, its 15.1x and 11.7x PERs are not stretched.</li>
</ul>



Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) concluded FY23 with a 203.3% surge in non-GAAP net profit to Rmb3.2bn, benefiting from higher store count and monthly transacting customers.
Luckin plans to lift store count by at least 23%, with total to reach over 20,000 in FY24. Product innovation, promotional discount reduction, and better store efficiency are profit drivers. 
Net cash reached Rmb3.8bn, or 7% of market cap. With a consensus EPS forecast of 28% CAGR in the next two years, its 15.1x and 11.7x PERs are not stretched.


Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US): Feeling Lucky in a Challenging Market

China

Luckin Coffee Inc. provides non-alcoholic beverages. The Company offers various types of coffee. Luckin Coffee serves customers in China.

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Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US)