China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect Luckin to report 1Q23 revenue at 77.0% YoY to RMB4,257mn, non-GAAP operating margin and net margin are expected to increase 12.6ppt and 9.1ppt to 16.4% and 13.2%; </li>
<li>We think the current moderate competition can bring positive externality to coffee players, whereas it may hurt street tea shops; </li>
<li>We maintain the stock as BUY and raise TP by US$1 to US$41.</li>
</ul>


We expect Luckin to report 1Q23 revenue at 77.0% YoY to RMB4,257mn, non-GAAP operating margin and net margin are expected to increase 12.6ppt and 9.1ppt to 16.4% and 13.2%; 
We think the current moderate competition can bring positive externality to coffee players, whereas it may hurt street tea shops; 
We maintain the stock as BUY and raise TP by US$1 to US$41.


[Luckin Coffee Inc. (LKNCY US) TP Change]: Strong New Product Sales Driving Seasonality Rebound

<ul>
<li>Luckin Coffee reported its 4Q22 revenue, non-GAAP operating income, and non-GAAP net income (9.1%), (11.4%), (57.9%) lower than our estimate. </li>
<li>The store temporary close due to Covid impact is the main reason for revenue miss, and the higher income tax payment is the reason for the miss on NI.  </li>
<li>We expect Luckin to catch up the store expansion schedule in 1Q23 at 730 new stores, and reach to 10,500 total stores by the end of 2023. </li>
</ul>


Luckin Coffee reported its 4Q22 revenue, non-GAAP operating income, and non-GAAP net income (9.1%), (11.4%), (57.9%) lower than our estimate. 
The store temporary close due to Covid impact is the main reason for revenue miss, and the higher income tax payment is the reason for the miss on NI.  
We expect Luckin to catch up the store expansion schedule in 1Q23 at 730 new stores, and reach to 10,500 total stores by the end of 2023. 


[Luckin Coffee Inc. (LKNCY US) Earnings Review]: A Few Bright Spots in a Transactional Quarter

<ul>
<li>We initiated Luckin with a BUY with TP $40 because we believe Luckin is a rising challenger in a rising market, half way through a rising business model; </li>
<li>We see room for Luckin to expand transaction frequency and transacting customers before expanding ASP in order to drive same store sales;</li>
<li>In the long run, we see coffee + western bakery to gain market share over tea house + Chinese dim sum in the snack + breakfast market. </li>
</ul>


We initiated Luckin with a BUY with TP $40 because we believe Luckin is a rising challenger in a rising market, half way through a rising business model; 
We see room for Luckin to expand transaction frequency and transacting customers before expanding ASP in order to drive same store sales;
In the long run, we see coffee + western bakery to gain market share over tea house + Chinese dim sum in the snack + breakfast market. 


Luckin(LKNCY.US) Initiation: Rising Challenger, Market and Business Model

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> announced yesterday that it is seeking to change its listing status in Hong Kong to a primary listing before the end of 2022.</li>
<li>With the risk of de-listing from the US, a dual-primary-listing in Hong Kong would allow <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a> to smoothly transition all its trading from the US to Hong Kong.</li>
<li>In addition, the company could possibly use this opportunity to raise more money from capital markets as it is desperately seeking funding for its loss making ventures.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba Group (9988 HK) announced yesterday that it is seeking to change its listing status in Hong Kong to a primary listing before the end of 2022.
With the risk of de-listing from the US, a dual-primary-listing in Hong Kong would allow Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) to smoothly transition all its trading from the US to Hong Kong.
In addition, the company could possibly use this opportunity to raise more money from capital markets as it is desperately seeking funding for its loss making ventures.


Alibaba Dual-Primary-Listing: An Opportunity to Raise Money Without A Trouble Alert

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>Q1 22 operating figures are better than the smaller peers although not exactly beating Anta. </li>
<li>Launching the cafe to boost SSSG post-COVID-19 is a positive strategy. </li>
<li>Its valuation is currently trading below its historical highs . Turn positive on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning (2331 HK)</a> .</li>
</ul>


Q1 22 operating figures are better than the smaller peers although not exactly beating Anta. 
Launching the cafe to boost SSSG post-COVID-19 is a positive strategy. 
Its valuation is currently trading below its historical highs . Turn positive on Li Ning (2331 HK) .


China

Luckin Coffee Inc. provides non-alcoholic beverages. The Company offers various types of coffee. Luckin Coffee serves customers in China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US)

[Luckin Coffee Inc. (LKNCY US) TP Change]: Strong New Product Sales Driving Seasonality Rebound

We expect Luckin to report 1Q23 revenue at 77.0% YoY to RMB4,257mn, non-GAAP operating margin and net margin are expected to increase 12.6ppt and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Luckin Coffee Inc. (LKNCY US) Earnings Review]: A Few Bright Spots in a Transactional Quarter

The store temporary close due to Covid impact is the main reason for revenue miss, and the higher income tax payment is the reason for the miss on NI.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Luckin(LKNCY.US) Initiation: Rising Challenger, Market and Business Model

We believe Luckin is in a rising market with its chief competitor self-cornered. Luckin’s business model is about half-way to its peak. We initiate...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Alibaba Dual-Primary-Listing: An Opportunity to Raise Money Without A Trouble Alert

With the negotiations between the US and China still at a deadlock, it seems that there’s no way forward for Chinese stocks in the US without full...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Li Ning (2331): Turning Positive.

Since the last insight shorting Li Ning would have made investors between 1-2% after the recent rally in the Hong Kong equity market. Now is the...

Henry Soediarko

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)