Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Continued encouraging COVID-19 news and accommodative moves by the Fed have allowed the bulls to remain in control while short-term support on the S&amp;P 500 held near 2,450. While the bulls remain in control in the short-term, we continue to believe the broad equity market is not yet out of the woods and remains vulnerable -- particularly as Wall Street sentiment has flipped bullish. In today’s report we highlight attractive stocks from a relative strength perspective across Sectors.

Continued encouraging COVID-19 news and accommodative moves by the Fed have allowed the bulls to remain in control while short-term support on the S&amp;P 500 held near 2,450. While the bulls remain in control in the short-term, we continue to believe the broad equity market is not yet out of the woods and remains vulnerable -- particularly as Wall Street sentiment has flipped bullish. In today’s report we highlight attractive stocks from a relative strength perspective across Sectors.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bulls Still In Driver’s Seat, But For How Long?

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research, AlphaSituations

Robert Sassoon

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research

AlphaSituations

Since its establishment, AlphaSituations has delivered a track record of outperformance with a hit rate of winners of more than 70% of its portfolio of ideas generating annualized average returns of 20%. In January 2022, AlphaSituations was contracted by Water Tower Research, an investor engagement and stakeholder communication platform to provide coverage of Special Situations

Event-Driven

On April 24, 2019, we published an insight- SpinTalk: Spirit Realty Capital - A Rising Spirit - in which we highlighted the transitioning process that Spirit Realty has been undergoing over the past year towards becoming a conventional triple net lease REIT  with the goal of closing its large valuation gap to its primary peers. There have since been significant developments which are likely to accelerate the process, notably the announcement on June 3, 2019 that Spirit MTA REIT (SMTA US) will sell the assets of its Master Trust in a process that will lead to its liquidation. Closing of the transaction is targeted by the end of 3Q 2019 at which time Spirit Realty' will receive gross proceeds od ~$260 MN from SMTA, which in addition to the expected ~$450 MN of net proceeds that will be available from its recent public offering, significantly increases Spirit Realty's deployable growth capital. Moreover, Spirit Realty's external management contract with SMTA will be replaced by a much more modest interim version to help manage the sale of SMTA's remaining assets.Since our previous insight on Spirit Realty, the shares have risen by 12% in value, and are up ~30% since the start of the year. Still, our updated valuation thesis indicates further value upside of  ~20% plus as Spirit Realty continues its progress in narrowing its valuation gap relative to peers. But, our valuation assessment could prove quite conservative given the significant increase in deployable capital that Spirit Realty will enjoy. Furthermore, having already received a credit rating upgrade from S&amp;P Global following the public stock offer launch, we expect both Moody's and Fitch to follow suit with the latest SMTA news only  being another source of encouragement.

On April 24, 2019, we published an insight- SpinTalk: Spirit Realty Capital - A Rising Spirit - in which we highlighted the transitioning process that Spirit Realty has been undergoing over the past year towards becoming a conventional triple net lease REIT  with the goal of closing its large valuation gap to its primary peers. There have since been significant developments which are likely to accelerate the process, notably the announcement on June 3, 2019 that Spirit MTA REIT (SMTA US) will sell the assets of its Master Trust in a process that will lead to its liquidation. Closing of the transaction is targeted by the end of 3Q 2019 at which time Spirit Realty' will receive gross proceeds od ~$260 MN from SMTA, which in addition to the expected ~$450 MN of net proceeds that will be available from its recent public offering, significantly increases Spirit Realty's deployable growth capital. Moreover, Spirit Realty's external management contract with SMTA will be replaced by a much more modest interim version to help manage the sale of SMTA's remaining assets.Since our previous insight on Spirit Realty, the shares have risen by 12% in value, and are up ~30% since the start of the year. Still, our updated valuation thesis indicates further value upside of  ~20% plus as Spirit Realty continues its progress in narrowing its valuation gap relative to peers. But, our valuation assessment could prove quite conservative given the significant increase in deployable capital that Spirit Realty will enjoy. Furthermore, having already received a credit rating upgrade from S&amp;P Global following the public stock offer launch, we expect both Moody's and Fitch to follow suit with the latest SMTA news only  being another source of encouragement.

SpinTalk: Spirit Realty Capital (SRC US) -Transition To Be Completed Sooner Than Expected

United States

Spirit MTA REIT operates as a real estate investment trusts. The Company invests in properties, retail industries, and office premises, as well as property management for vacant properties, special circumstance workouts, dispositions, debt placement, and leases. Spirit MTA serves customers in the United States.

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Spirit MTA REIT (SMTA US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bulls Still In Driver’s Seat, But For How Long?

Continued encouraging COVID-19 news and accommodative moves by the Fed have allowed the bulls to remain in control while short-term support on the...

Vermilion Research

SpinTalk: Spirit Realty Capital (SRC US) -Transition To Be Completed Sooner Than Expected

On April 24, 2019, we published an insight- SpinTalk: Spirit Realty Capital - A Rising Spirit - in which we highlighted the transitioning process...

Robert Sassoon

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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