Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI </li>
<li>The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. </li>
<li>The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers</li>
</ul>


Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI 
The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. 
The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers


Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | JSW Paints and Indigo Paints reported to lead race for Akzo Nobel India • BE Semiconductor Industries | Applied Materials takes 9% interest • Fugro | geopolitical and economic uncertainties to depress 1Q25 revenue and EBIT • TomTom | strong start of the year – reiterates FY25 guidance</li></ul>

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | JSW Paints and Indigo Paints reported to lead race for Akzo Nobel India • BE Semiconductor Industries | Applied Materials takes 9% interest • Fugro | geopolitical and economic uncertainties to depress 1Q25 revenue and EBIT • TomTom | strong start of the year – reiterates FY25 guidance

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 15 April (AkzoNobel | BE Semiconductor Industries | Fugro | TomTom)

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Global semiconductor sales for the month of January 2025 hit $56.5 billion, an increase of 17.9% YoY, but down 1.7% MoM</li>
<li>TSMC is also off to an excellent start in 2025. YTD revenues through February are up 39.2%.</li>
<li>2025 Semi forecast? Think 2024 without the memory boom and way more volatility</li>
</ul>


Global semiconductor sales for the month of January 2025 hit $56.5 billion, an increase of 17.9% YoY, but down 1.7% MoM
TSMC is also off to an excellent start in 2025. YTD revenues through February are up 39.2%.
2025 Semi forecast? Think 2024 without the memory boom and way more volatility


Semiconductors. Key Indicator Updates, 2024 In Review, 2025 Forecasts

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

JX Advanced Metals / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a>’s parent, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eneos-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:638:1" rel="noopener">ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP)</a>, raised around US$2.5bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.</li>
<li>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)’s parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), raised around US$2.5bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.


JX Advance Metals IPO Trading - Demand Wasn’t Great

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC just held a press conference this evening in Taiwan regarding its expanded U.S. investment plans. TSMC said it won't impact Taiwan investments; it is actually accelerating its Taiwan investments.</li>
<li>Additionally, we see TSMC's aggressive U.S. expansion significantly weakening Intel's ability to compete, as it removes one of Intel’s major differentiators--domestic U.S. production.</li>
<li>Maintain Structural Long rating on TSMC -- Expanded U.S. investment fortifies the company’s global leadership. ALSO -- Positive news for semiconductor manufacturing equipment companies internationally and in Taiwan. ASML, etc.</li>
</ul>


TSMC just held a press conference this evening in Taiwan regarding its expanded U.S. investment plans. TSMC said it won't impact Taiwan investments; it is actually accelerating its Taiwan investments.
Additionally, we see TSMC's aggressive U.S. expansion significantly weakening Intel's ability to compete, as it removes one of Intel’s major differentiators--domestic U.S. production.
Maintain Structural Long rating on TSMC -- Expanded U.S. investment fortifies the company’s global leadership. ALSO -- Positive news for semiconductor manufacturing equipment companies internationally and in Taiwan. ASML, etc.


TSMC Addresses U.S. Expansion Concerns: Strengthens TSMC Position & Positive for Semi Industry Capex

United States

Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers include semiconductor wafer and integrated circuit manufacturers, flat panel liquid crystal displays, solar photovoltaic cells and modules and other electronic devices manufacturers.

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Applied Materials (AMAT US)

Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 15 April (AkzoNobel | BE Semiconductor Industries | Fugro | TomTom)

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | JSW Paints and Indigo Paints reported to lead race for Akzo Nobel India • BE Semiconductor Industries | Applied...

The IDEA!

Semiconductors. Key Indicator Updates, 2024 In Review, 2025 Forecasts

2025 Semi forecast? Think 2024 without the memory boom and way more volatility. Chaos will ultimately beget opportunity, just not yet...

William Keating

JX Advance Metals IPO Trading - Demand Wasn’t Great

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)’s parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), raised around US$2.5bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM. In this...

Sumeet Singh

TSMC Addresses U.S. Expansion Concerns: Strengthens TSMC Position & Positive for Semi Industry Capex

TSMC explained how it is accelerating Taiwan investments while also increasing its expansion in the U.S.. Highly positive news for semiconductor...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

​SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 15 April (AkzoNobel | BE Semiconductor Industries | Fugro | TomTom)

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | JSW Paints and Indigo Paints reported to lead race for Akzo Nobel India • BE Semiconductor Industries | Applied...

The IDEA!

Semiconductors. Key Indicator Updates, 2024 In Review, 2025 Forecasts

2025 Semi forecast? Think 2024 without the memory boom and way more volatility. Chaos will ultimately beget opportunity, just not yet...

William Keating

JX Advance Metals IPO Trading - Demand Wasn’t Great

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)’s parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), raised around US$2.5bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM. In this...

Sumeet Singh

TSMC Addresses U.S. Expansion Concerns: Strengthens TSMC Position & Positive for Semi Industry Capex

​TSMC explained how it is accelerating Taiwan investments while also increasing its expansion in the U.S.. Highly positive news for semiconductor...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

TSMC explained how it is accelerating Taiwan investments while also increasing its expansion in the U.S.. Highly positive news for semiconductor...