Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) — Second Guidance Upgrade; Margin Expansion Accelerates, Momentum Builds</li>
<li>Focus businesses now contribute nearly half of operating profit, reinforcing structural earnings quality.</li>
<li>JX Advanced Metals trades at ~22× FY26E P/E and ~13× EV/EBITDA, reflecting premium growth exposure but still below Japanese specialty materials peers (Tokyo Ohka ~26×, Entegris ~45×).</li>
</ul>


JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) — Second Guidance Upgrade; Margin Expansion Accelerates, Momentum Builds
Focus businesses now contribute nearly half of operating profit, reinforcing structural earnings quality.
JX Advanced Metals trades at ~22× FY26E P/E and ~13× EV/EBITDA, reflecting premium growth exposure but still below Japanese specialty materials peers (Tokyo Ohka ~26×, Entegris ~45×).


JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) — Second Guidance Upgrade; Margin Expansion Accelerates

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>A global index provider will announce its quarterly review on 5 November 2025. The rebalance will take place on 24 November 2025.</li>
<li>We make predictions every week for the following index rebalance and publish them along with predictions for 100 other indices. </li>
<li>This insight shows our whole set of predictions across 47 countries for the next rebalance. Most of these names are unchanged since our early September predictions. </li>
</ul>


A global index provider will announce its quarterly review on 5 November 2025. The rebalance will take place on 24 November 2025.
We make predictions every week for the following index rebalance and publish them along with predictions for 100 other indices. 
This insight shows our whole set of predictions across 47 countries for the next rebalance. Most of these names are unchanged since our early September predictions. 


[Quiddity Index] Predictions for the Global Index Provider Rebal in November 2025

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The sharp rally in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a> over the last couple of months should result in inclusion in a global index in November.</li>
<li>The stock is already a member of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TOPIX Index</a> and another global index, and this inclusion will require passive trackers to buy a big chunk of the real float.</li>
<li>There will be more passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a> in April when the liquidity factor in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TOPIX Index</a> increases from 0.75 to 1.</li>
</ul>


The sharp rally in JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) over the last couple of months should result in inclusion in a global index in November.
The stock is already a member of the TOPIX Index and another global index, and this inclusion will require passive trackers to buy a big chunk of the real float.
There will be more passive buying in JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) in April when the liquidity factor in the TOPIX Index increases from 0.75 to 1.


JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): Global Index Inclusion in November to Support Stock

<ul>
<li>Results: Q1 FY25 revenue rose 12% YoY to ¥191.3bn with operating profit up 22% and net profit up 33%, driven by robust semiconductor and ICT materials growth.</li>
<li>Guidance &amp; Revisions: FY25 guidance lifted to ¥760bn revenue/¥110bn OP; dividend ¥18. Our forecasts rise to PAT ¥70bn (+35%) in FY25, with 30–40% upgrades through FY26–28.</li>
<li>Valuations: At ~13x P/E and ~12x EV/EBITDA, JX trades above domestic miners but below semiconductor materials peers, leaving room for rerating if the advanced materials mix deepens.</li>
</ul>


Results: Q1 FY25 revenue rose 12% YoY to ¥191.3bn with operating profit up 22% and net profit up 33%, driven by robust semiconductor and ICT materials growth.
Guidance &amp; Revisions: FY25 guidance lifted to ¥760bn revenue/¥110bn OP; dividend ¥18. Our forecasts rise to PAT ¥70bn (+35%) in FY25, with 30–40% upgrades through FY26–28.
Valuations: At ~13x P/E and ~12x EV/EBITDA, JX trades above domestic miners but below semiconductor materials peers, leaving room for rerating if the advanced materials mix deepens.


JX Advanced Metals – Q1 FY2025: Strong Beat, Guidance Raised, Valuations Supportive

<ul>
<li>Copper Output Cuts: JX Advanced Metals will reduce electrolytic copper production by ~30kt (~5–8% of capacity) in FY25, with further smelting downscaling by March 2026.</li>
<li>Margins have collapsed as TC/RCs plunged into negative territory (~–$45/t vs $80/t in 2023), amid concentrate shortages and Chinese overcapacity.</li>
<li>Smelting will be retained mainly for rare-metal recovery (tantalum, indium, rhenium), while JX doubles down on semiconductor materials and upstream mineral projects.</li>
</ul>


Copper Output Cuts: JX Advanced Metals will reduce electrolytic copper production by ~30kt (~5–8% of capacity) in FY25, with further smelting downscaling by March 2026.
Margins have collapsed as TC/RCs plunged into negative territory (~–$45/t vs $80/t in 2023), amid concentrate shortages and Chinese overcapacity.
Smelting will be retained mainly for rare-metal recovery (tantalum, indium, rhenium), while JX doubles down on semiconductor materials and upstream mineral projects.


JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) – Smelting Cuts Reinforce Materials Pivot

Japan

JX Advanced Metals Corporation mines and distributes non ferrous metal products. The Company smelts, refines, and markets non ferrous metals such as copper, gold, silver, and more. JX Advanced Metals also sells semiconductor materials, special steel materials, and other products.

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JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)