Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>August's WSTS semiconductor revenues registered a record high of more than $53 billion</li>
<li>Nobody seemed to notice, including the organization making the announcement</li>
<li>There's valid concern that the market is on the verge of a collapse, and this may be overshadowing record sales</li>
</ul>


August's WSTS semiconductor revenues registered a record high of more than $53 billion
Nobody seemed to notice, including the organization making the announcement
There's valid concern that the market is on the verge of a collapse, and this may be overshadowing record sales


Semis Just Broke a Record.  Why Did Nobody Notice?

Global TMT Analyst, Ex-PM, 30 years experience

Neil Campling

<ul>
<li>Generative AI seen through the lens of corporate earnings shows a lack of ROI or growth drivers in applications <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom (AVGO US)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hewlett-packard-enterprise-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26511:1" rel="noopener">Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE US)</a>  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33361:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOGL US)</a> </li>
<li>U.S. semi equipment restrictions to China could negatively impact Tokyo Electron, ASML results in 2025 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asml-holding-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21097:1" rel="noopener">ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electron-device-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10301:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electron Device (2760 JP)</a> </li>
<li>Flagship global Tech conference in NYC suggests interest has picked up in global software above hardware in a notable shift</li>
</ul>


Generative AI seen through the lens of corporate earnings shows a lack of ROI or growth drivers in applications Broadcom (AVGO US)Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE US)  Alphabet (GOOGL US) 
U.S. semi equipment restrictions to China could negatively impact Tokyo Electron, ASML results in 2025 ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)Tokyo Electron Device (2760 JP) 
Flagship global Tech conference in NYC suggests interest has picked up in global software above hardware in a notable shift


Global Tech Weekly - Focus on AI, Semis, China V U.S., Software V Hardware. AI Party Ending?

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>NVDA disappoints market expectations and trades -7% after-market, setting a very weak tone for Japanese SPE and tech related names to start.</li>
<li>The bad news for 4911 Shiseido continues, with the tone out of a small sell-side meeting held yesterday after-market pointed to further earnings downside.</li>
<li>Expect a continued rotation into value and domestic defensives as the market pivots away from AI/tech with plenty of room for profit taking after the recent rebound.</li>
</ul>


NVDA disappoints market expectations and trades -7% after-market, setting a very weak tone for Japanese SPE and tech related names to start.
The bad news for 4911 Shiseido continues, with the tone out of a small sell-side meeting held yesterday after-market pointed to further earnings downside.
Expect a continued rotation into value and domestic defensives as the market pivots away from AI/tech with plenty of room for profit taking after the recent rebound.


Japan Morning Connection: NVDA Disappoints

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>SEMI reports September front end and back end test/assembly equipment sales decline of 18% and 25% y/y, respectively, resulting 3Q23 sales decline of 17% and 28% y/y.</li>
<li>However, WSTS/SIA and US ISM Purchasing Managers Index reported more moderate 7% y/y decline in August global semi sales and 4% y/y decline in September index. </li>
<li>The discrepancy is due to global semi vendors are seeing PC and Smartphone IC improvement but need to consume earlier overbuilt inventories first before boosting in house or foundries' capex.</li>
</ul>


SEMI reports September front end and back end test/assembly equipment sales decline of 18% and 25% y/y, respectively, resulting 3Q23 sales decline of 17% and 28% y/y.
However, WSTS/SIA and US ISM Purchasing Managers Index reported more moderate 7% y/y decline in August global semi sales and 4% y/y decline in September index. 
The discrepancy is due to global semi vendors are seeing PC and Smartphone IC improvement but need to consume earlier overbuilt inventories first before boosting in house or foundries' capex.


What Sep US SEMI Equipment and Aug SIA/WSTS Global Sales Y/Y Discrepancy Tells Us?

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AMAT was the last SPE vendor to report, like others it has revised up its revenue outlook.</li>
<li>Similarly, estimates for the end-market, the semiconductor market, are going up, supported by a strong 1Q earnings season, and strong guidance.</li>
<li>Positive: growth keeps beating expectations. Negative: peak growth in 2026-27, valuations, maybe?</li>
</ul>


AMAT was the last SPE vendor to report, like others it has revised up its revenue outlook.
Similarly, estimates for the end-market, the semiconductor market, are going up, supported by a strong 1Q earnings season, and strong guidance.
Positive: growth keeps beating expectations. Negative: peak growth in 2026-27, valuations, maybe?


Semiconductor Production Equipment (SPE): All Big Firms Have Increased Revenue Forecasts

Japan

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

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Tokyo Electron Ltd Unsp Adr (TOELY US)

Semis Just Broke a Record. Why Did Nobody Notice?

August's semiconductor revenues hit a record high of over $53 billion, but concerns about a potential market collapse are overshadowing the...

Jim Handy

Global Tech Weekly - Focus on AI, Semis, China V U.S., Software V Hardware. AI Party Ending?

AI related earnings exhibit a lack of ROI or uplift. Is the AI euphoria coming to an end? More U.S. sanctions could hurt Japan & European...

Neil Campling

Japan Morning Connection: NVDA Disappoints

NVDA disappoints market, setting weak tone for Japanese tech names. Shiseido faces further earnings downside. Market pivots to value and domestic...

Andrew Jackson

What Sep US SEMI Equipment and Aug SIA/WSTS Global Sales Y/Y Discrepancy Tells Us?

Sep US SEMI Equipment and Aug SIA/WSTS Global Sales Y/Y Discrepancy Tells Us global semi vendors are consuming earlier overbuilt inventories first...

Andrew Lu

Semiconductor Production Equipment (SPE): All Big Firms Have Increased Revenue Forecasts

AMAT raises revenue outlook along with positive semiconductor market growth, but concerns arise over peak growth in 2026-27 and valuations.

Nicolas Baratte

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Semis Just Broke a Record. Why Did Nobody Notice?

​August's semiconductor revenues hit a record high of over $53 billion, but concerns about a potential market collapse are overshadowing the...

Jim Handy

Global Tech Weekly - Focus on AI, Semis, China V U.S., Software V Hardware. AI Party Ending?

AI related earnings exhibit a lack of ROI or uplift. Is the AI euphoria coming to an end? More U.S. sanctions could hurt Japan & European...

Neil Campling

Japan Morning Connection: NVDA Disappoints

​NVDA disappoints market, setting weak tone for Japanese tech names. Shiseido faces further earnings downside. Market pivots to value and domestic...

Andrew Jackson

What Sep US SEMI Equipment and Aug SIA/WSTS Global Sales Y/Y Discrepancy Tells Us?

Sep US SEMI Equipment and Aug SIA/WSTS Global Sales Y/Y Discrepancy Tells Us global semi vendors are consuming earlier overbuilt inventories first...

Andrew Lu

Semiconductor Production Equipment (SPE): All Big Firms Have Increased Revenue Forecasts

​AMAT raises revenue outlook along with positive semiconductor market growth, but concerns arise over peak growth in 2026-27 and valuations.

Nicolas Baratte

August's semiconductor revenues hit a record high of over $53 billion, but concerns about a potential market collapse are overshadowing the...

NVDA disappoints market, setting weak tone for Japanese tech names. Shiseido faces further earnings downside. Market pivots to value and domestic...

AMAT raises revenue outlook along with positive semiconductor market growth, but concerns arise over peak growth in 2026-27 and valuations.