Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Where understanding, forecasting credit metrics is more of an art than a science, we believe looking at a wide array of variables, including those that are less mainstream, can offer even greater insights. Newly released data on Thailand’s cheque clearing may be a positive indicator of the economy, or at least on spending. September data shows some of the lowest levels recorded in years on the value of returned cheques compared with total cleared cheques in Thailand’s provinces.  For Bangkok the…

Where understanding, forecasting credit metrics is more of an art than a science, we believe looking at a wide array of variables, including those that are less mainstream, can offer even greater insights. Newly released data on Thailand’s cheque clearing may be a positive indicator of the economy, or at least on spending. September data shows some of the lowest levels recorded in years on the value of returned cheques compared with total cleared cheques in Thailand’s provinces.  For Bangkok the…

There are four or five mainstream, listed banks in Thailand. When including small banks, government specialized banks and foreign banks with reasonably populated financial data, there are 25 banks. We examine credit quality metrics ahead of upcoming results on 21 October, taking into account all Thai banks. Specifically, we look at some meaningful divergence in trends of bad loan growth, as well as bad loan ratios. The Islamic Bank of Thailand (IBT) stands out with the highest non-performing…

There are four or five mainstream, listed banks in Thailand. When including small banks, government specialized banks and foreign banks with reasonably populated financial data, there are 25 banks. We examine credit quality metrics ahead of upcoming results on 21 October, taking into account all Thai banks. Specifically, we look at some meaningful divergence in trends of bad loan growth, as well as bad loan ratios. The Islamic Bank of Thailand (IBT) stands out with the highest non-performing…

A Broader View of Thai Bank Credit Quality

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI AC Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index / Technical Analysis

MSCI AC Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index (MXAPJ INDEX)

MSCI AC Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index

As all eyes are focused on Europe—the current darling trade—Asia is emerging as a technical leader. The MSCI All-Country Asia Index (below) is breaking out from a two-year base. Relative strength (vs. MSCI ACWI ex-US) depicts a similar pattern; after lagging since mid-2015, its RS trend has slowly rounded higher, resulting in the recent breakout. Combined, this warrants an overweight.Today’s report is a country by country review of leadership and actionable themes within the region, including stock recommendations.

As all eyes are focused on Europe—the current darling trade—Asia is emerging as a technical leader. The MSCI All-Country Asia Index (below) is breaking out from a two-year base. Relative strength (vs. MSCI ACWI ex-US) depicts a similar pattern; after lagging since mid-2015, its RS trend has slowly rounded higher, resulting in the recent breakout. Combined, this warrants an overweight.Today’s report is a country by country review of leadership and actionable themes within the region, including stock recommendations.

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Recently, MCorp Review listened to a talk by E8 Consulting on open source and its applications in building fintech platforms and developing investing strategies and found it quite interesting. Firstly, they defined open source and explained why it was so useful. Typically, open source is free and bound by certain license terms; it allows various users to change the source code and develop commercial applications for it. Probably, the best example of this is how Bloomberg terminals, a highly…

Recently, MCorp Review listened to a talk by E8 Consulting on open source and its applications in building fintech platforms and developing investing strategies and found it quite interesting. Firstly, they defined open source and explained why it was so useful. Typically, open source is free and bound by certain license terms; it allows various users to change the source code and develop commercial applications for it. Probably, the best example of this is how Bloomberg terminals, a highly…

Over the past 20 years, Thailand faced two financial crisis, namely Tom Yum Goong in 1997 and Lehman in 2008. Discounting the political nonsense that is just part of life down here, we think there are five important lessons to take away, regarding: 1) the importance of investors; 2) liabilities-cash flow matching; 3) sticking to core competencies as well as avoiding : 4) currency pegs to dollars (or any currency); and 5) capital controls. No event in Thai business history has transformed the landscape more than the 1997 crisis. In this review, we highlight a few anecdotes of those who survived and those who didn't (at least not in their original forms).

Over the past 20 years, Thailand faced two financial crisis, namely Tom Yum Goong in 1997 and Lehman in 2008. Discounting the political nonsense that is just part of life down here, we think there are five important lessons to take away, regarding: 1) the importance of investors; 2) liabilities-cash flow matching; 3) sticking to core competencies as well as avoiding : 4) currency pegs to dollars (or any currency); and 5) capital controls. No event in Thai business history has transformed the landscape more than the 1997 crisis. In this review, we highlight a few anecdotes of those who survived and those who didn't (at least not in their original forms).

Five Biggest Lessons from Thai Financial Crisis

Thailand

Thanachart Capital Public Company Limited operates as an investment holding company and is the parent company of Thanachart Group. It offers a diverse range of financial services including hire purchase, non-life and life insurance, securities brokerage, asset-based financing, non-performing asset management, and investment businesses. The company was incorporated in 1959 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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Thanachart Capital (TCAP TB)

Thailand's Returned Cheques

Where understanding, forecasting credit metrics is more of an art than a science, we believe looking at a wide array of variables, including those...

Daniel Tabbush

A Broader View of Thai Bank Credit Quality

There are four or five mainstream, listed banks in Thailand. When including small banks, government specialized banks and foreign banks with...

Daniel Tabbush

Asia: Developing Leadership

As all eyes are focused on Europe—the current darling trade—Asia is emerging as a technical leader. The MSCI All-Country Asia Index (below) is...

Vermilion Research

EB on Open Source & Investing

Recently, MCorp Review listened to a talk by E8 Consulting on open source and its applications in building fintech platforms and developing...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Five Biggest Lessons from Thai Financial Crisis

Over the past 20 years, Thailand faced two financial crisis, namely Tom Yum Goong in 1997 and Lehman in 2008. Discounting the political nonsense...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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