Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Where there are many other areas of interest in Asia, globally, the figures just out for Bangkok Bank are incredible to us, not in a positive way.</li>
<li>The bank has seen its NPLs rise from THB71bn to THB85bn to THB92bn from 4Q23 to 2Q24 to 3Q24, putting YTD growth at 29%</li>
<li>The bank has more than 1/4 of its loans in manufacturing &amp; commercial where loan balances are down 4.0% YTD and down 4.3% QoQ</li>
</ul>


Where there are many other areas of interest in Asia, globally, the figures just out for Bangkok Bank are incredible to us, not in a positive way.
The bank has seen its NPLs rise from THB71bn to THB85bn to THB92bn from 4Q23 to 2Q24 to 3Q24, putting YTD growth at 29%
The bank has more than 1/4 of its loans in manufacturing &amp; commercial where loan balances are down 4.0% YTD and down 4.3% QoQ


Bangkok Bank - BBL Sees 29% Higher NPLs YTD and Core Manufacturing & Commercial Loans -4% YTD

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>A third of the way through the review period for the December rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a>, we see four potential index changes.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy between 0.5-4.3 days of ADV on the inclusions and sell between 0.1-2.9 days of ADV on the deletions.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> over the last 5 months.</li>
</ul>


A third of the way through the review period for the December rebalance of the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX), we see four potential index changes.
Passive trackers will need to buy between 0.5-4.3 days of ADV on the inclusions and sell between 0.1-2.9 days of ADV on the deletions.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes and the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) over the last 5 months.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in December 2024.</li>
<li>Currently, we see 3 expected ADDs/DELs and given that the 3-month reference period used for average market cap rankings have now started the rankings may be more stable. </li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in December 2024.
Currently, we see 3 expected ADDs/DELs and given that the 3-month reference period used for average market cap rankings have now started the rankings may be more stable. 


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 24: 3 Changes Likely; Some Changes to Expectations

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in December 2024.</li>
<li>Currently, we see 4 expected ADDs/DELs but the 3-month reference period used for average market cap rankings starts on 1st September and only after that the rankings will become stable. </li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in December 2024.
Currently, we see 4 expected ADDs/DELs but the 3-month reference period used for average market cap rankings starts on 1st September and only after that the rankings will become stable. 


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 24: 4 Changes Possible; Reference Period Starts on 1st Sep

<ul>
<li>Couple of weeks from the start of the review period for the December rebalance of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a>, we see four potential index changes.</li>
<li>There are a few stocks that are close to the inclusion zone and there could be a reordering among the non-constituents as stock prices move around.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes since the start of the year with most of the outperformance coming over the last 6 weeks.</li>
</ul>


Couple of weeks from the start of the review period for the December rebalance of SET 50 Index, we see four potential index changes.
There are a few stocks that are close to the inclusion zone and there could be a reordering among the non-constituents as stock prices move around.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes since the start of the year with most of the outperformance coming over the last 6 weeks.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Changes & A Few Close Names

Thailand

Thanachart Capital Public Company Limited provides financial services including consumer, corporate and mortgage financing.  Additionally the Company provides securities underwriting and investment advisory services.  Thanachart Capital also provides insurance services through its subsidiaries.

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Thanachart Capital (TCAP TB)

Bangkok Bank - BBL Sees 29% Higher NPLs YTD and Core Manufacturing & Commercial Loans -4% YTD

BBL is seeing dwindling loan balances in its core segment - manufacturing and commercial loans are -4% YTD. And what's worse: its NPLs are surging,...

Daniel Tabbush

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

There should be 4 changes to the SET50 in December. Passive trackers will need to buy between 0.5-4.3x ADV on the inclusions and sell between 0.1...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 24: 3 Changes Likely; Some Changes to Expectations

There are names lurking close to border which can still move into and outside the top 50 and cause changes to our list of expected ADDs/DELs. As...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 24: 4 Changes Possible; Reference Period Starts on 1st Sep

We currently see SAWAD, COM7, BANPU, and TCAP as expected ADDs and EA, TIDLOR, CENTEL, and BCP as expected DELs. A couple of these names have 3-4x...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Changes & A Few Close Names

There are 4 potential changes for the SET50 in Dec. There are some other stocks that could make the cut. The adds have outperformed the deletes....

Brian Freitas

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