Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Maintain HOLD with a target price of Bt15.00. Our HOLD call reflects KTB’s slowing growth ahead and limited upside gain. Yet, a dividend yield of 4.5-4.8% for 2022-23 remains attractive.</li>
<li>Management guided loan growth to moderate to 3-4% YoY in 2022. Asset quality remains manageable.</li>
<li>Government expenditure will bolster Thailand’s economy in 2022. But growth potential may weaken than expected on potential impacts from higher energy prices and geopolitical uncertainties.</li>
</ul>


Maintain HOLD with a target price of Bt15.00. Our HOLD call reflects KTB’s slowing growth ahead and limited upside gain. Yet, a dividend yield of 4.5-4.8% for 2022-23 remains attractive.
Management guided loan growth to moderate to 3-4% YoY in 2022. Asset quality remains manageable.
Government expenditure will bolster Thailand’s economy in 2022. But growth potential may weaken than expected on potential impacts from higher energy prices and geopolitical uncertainties.


<ul>
<li>We initiate our coverage of KTB with a HOLD rating and a target price of Bt15.00.Our valuation is derived from the Gordon growth model(ROE 6.8%, growth 2%), implying 0.6x PBV’22E</li>
<li>Given the improving economic growth ahead, loans will continue to increase, but at a moderate rate</li>
<li>Potential credit cost reduction is likely given stable asset quality and high coverage ratio</li>
</ul>


We initiate our coverage of KTB with a HOLD rating and a target price of Bt15.00.Our valuation is derived from the Gordon growth model(ROE 6.8%, growth 2%), implying 0.6x PBV’22E
Given the improving economic growth ahead, loans will continue to increase, but at a moderate rate
Potential credit cost reduction is likely given stable asset quality and high coverage ratio


KTB: Despite Slowing Growth Ahead, Dividend Payment Is Attractive

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>These five value oriented Thai banks all have healthy credit quality, NPL coverage and sound capital adequacy ratios; in addition, encouraging cost of risk trends support the outlook for earnings</li>
<li>Of these, we believe Kasikorn Bank screens well, with its attractive pre-provision and post-provision profitability versus peers, whilst trading on relatively undemanding multiples; we also highlight Bangkok Bank positively</li>
<li>Of the other Thai banks, we think that TMBThanchart could be a potential “turn around” stock, especially if management can improve credit quality, driving down its cost of risk further</li>
</ul>


These five value oriented Thai banks all have healthy credit quality, NPL coverage and sound capital adequacy ratios; in addition, encouraging cost of risk trends support the outlook for earnings
Of these, we believe Kasikorn Bank screens well, with its attractive pre-provision and post-provision profitability versus peers, whilst trading on relatively undemanding multiples; we also highlight Bangkok Bank positively
Of the other Thai banks, we think that TMBThanchart could be a potential “turn around” stock, especially if management can improve credit quality, driving down its cost of risk further


Top Five Thai Banks in Our Chart Screener; Kasikorn Bank (KBANK TB)  Is Top

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

<ul>
<li>Bangkok Bank reported 4Q21 bottom-line results of THB 6.3 bn, declining THB 591 mn (8.6%) on a linked quarter basis, driven by costs which rose THB 3.5 bn or 21.8%; </li>
<li>Outside of expenses, BBL had a pretty solid quarter with net interest income improving and provisions declining; and </li>
<li>We find that BBL’s annualized net new NPLs were negative, and that reserves likely will begin being reversed in the near-term. </li>
</ul>


Bangkok Bank reported 4Q21 bottom-line results of THB 6.3 bn, declining THB 591 mn (8.6%) on a linked quarter basis, driven by costs which rose THB 3.5 bn or 21.8%; 
Outside of expenses, BBL had a pretty solid quarter with net interest income improving and provisions declining; and 
We find that BBL’s annualized net new NPLs were negative, and that reserves likely will begin being reversed in the near-term. 


*Weak Numerics: Bangkok Bank (BBL.TB) [BBL] reported 2Q21 bottom-line results of THB 6.4 bn, declining THB 566 mn (8.2%) on a linked quarter basis. Core operating results were far worse, however, coming in at THB 553 mn or down 86.2% over the same period; and*Credit Risk Remains Elevated: We find that BBL’s annualized net new NPLs during the period are THB 4.2 bn or 8.3% annualized. Given the increase in net new NPLs, moratorium credits are unknown and remain a wild card, and that COVID-19 continues to wreak havoc, we find that while loss reserves are hefty, the aggressive push to build reserves and de minimis NCOs despite the consistently high NPLs may suggest a big clean-up is coming.

*Weak Numerics: Bangkok Bank (BBL.TB) [BBL] reported 2Q21 bottom-line results of THB 6.4 bn, declining THB 566 mn (8.2%) on a linked quarter basis. Core operating results were far worse, however, coming in at THB 553 mn or down 86.2% over the same period; and*Credit Risk Remains Elevated: We find that BBL’s annualized net new NPLs during the period are THB 4.2 bn or 8.3% annualized. Given the increase in net new NPLs, moratorium credits are unknown and remain a wild card, and that COVID-19 continues to wreak havoc, we find that while loss reserves are hefty, the aggressive push to build reserves and de minimis NCOs despite the consistently high NPLs may suggest a big clean-up is coming.

Thailand

Krung Thai Bank Public Company Limited is a state-owned commercial bank offering various banking and financial services including commercial, consumer, credit card, and mortgage loans, as well as provident fund management, foreign exchange, and international trade financing services.  The Bank is majority owned by the Financial Institutions Development Fund.

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Krung Thai Bank Pub (KTB TB)

KTB: Growth Normalization Is Underway

Maintain HOLD with a target price of Bt15.00. Our HOLD call reflects KTB’s slowing growth ahead and limited upside gain. Yet, a dividend yield of...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

KTB: Despite Slowing Growth Ahead, Dividend Payment Is Attractive

We initiate our coverage of KTB with a HOLD rating and a target price of Bt15.00. Our valuation is derived from the Gordon growth model (ROE 6.8%,...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Top Five Thai Banks in Our Chart Screener; Kasikorn Bank (KBANK TB) Is Top

Thai banks have healthy credit quality, NPL coverage & sound capital adequacy ratios, also positive cost of risk trends support the outlook for...

Victor Galliano

Bangkok Bank – Positive Credit Turn

BANGKOK BANK: BBL reported 4Q21 bottom-line results of THB 6.3 bn, declining 8.6% QOQ, driven by costs. BBL’s net new NPLs were negative and...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bangkok Bank – Rotten To The Core

BANGKOK BANK: BBL reported a 2Q21 QOQ core operating results decline of 86.2%. The increase in net new NPLs, unknown moratorium credits, and COVID...

Thomas J. Monaco

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