Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintained Outperform with a 12M fair value of Bt212.90, based on PBV of 0.85x.</li><li>KBANK reported 1Q26 core profit of Bt13.4bn (-3% YoY, +30% QoQ), beating our and market estimates by 24% and 18%, respectively.</li><li>Non-interest income came in above expectations (+28.4% YoY, +17.6% QoQ), including a one-off compensation gain of Bt1,455mn.</li></ul>

We maintained Outperform with a 12M fair value of Bt212.90, based on PBV of 0.85x.KBANK reported 1Q26 core profit of Bt13.4bn (-3% YoY, +30% QoQ), beating our and market estimates by 24% and 18%, respectively.Non-interest income came in above expectations (+28.4% YoY, +17.6% QoQ), including a one-off compensation gain of Bt1,455mn.

KBANK: Non-NII And Cost Control Were Key Highlights This Quarter

<ul><li>We maintain an Outperform rating and slightly raise 12M FWD fair value to Bt212.90 (from Bt210.00), based on PBV of 0.85x, reflecting revised macro assumptions with an upward-sloping yield curve and 10Y yield at 1.83% (from 1.23%).</li><li>Earnings face pressure from declining interest rates, but the rate cycle likely bottomed. KBANK’s proactive capital management—share buybacks and high dividends—should limit downside, with a 2H25 DPS of Bt12 (6.2% yield; XD on April 21, 2026).</li><li>We expect KBANK’s 1Q26E profit at Bt10.7bn, down 21.6% YoY but up 5.1% QoQ.</li></ul>

We maintain an Outperform rating and slightly raise 12M FWD fair value to Bt212.90 (from Bt210.00), based on PBV of 0.85x, reflecting revised macro assumptions with an upward-sloping yield curve and 10Y yield at 1.83% (from 1.23%).Earnings face pressure from declining interest rates, but the rate cycle likely bottomed. KBANK’s proactive capital management—share buybacks and high dividends—should limit downside, with a 2H25 DPS of Bt12 (6.2% yield; XD on April 21, 2026).We expect KBANK’s 1Q26E profit at Bt10.7bn, down 21.6% YoY but up 5.1% QoQ.

KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (KBANK): 1Q26E Earnings Likely Pressured By NIM

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The ASEAN overweight rests on Indonesia and non-benchmark Singapore/Vietnam, offset by Malaysia’s structural underweight. Recent flows show pressure on Indonesia and Malaysia, with Singapore and Thailand benefiting.</li>
<li>Indonesian Financials dominate ASEAN exposure but are losing momentum; fresh inflows support Singapore Discretionary and Technology, plus Thailand Communication Services and Staples.</li>
<li>Stock trends highlight fading Indonesian banks, while new highs come from ICTSI, Grab, GoTo, and Singtel, signalling a potential shift in leadership.</li>
</ul>


The ASEAN overweight rests on Indonesia and non-benchmark Singapore/Vietnam, offset by Malaysia’s structural underweight. Recent flows show pressure on Indonesia and Malaysia, with Singapore and Thailand benefiting.
Indonesian Financials dominate ASEAN exposure but are losing momentum; fresh inflows support Singapore Discretionary and Technology, plus Thailand Communication Services and Staples.
Stock trends highlight fading Indonesian banks, while new highs come from ICTSI, Grab, GoTo, and Singtel, signalling a potential shift in leadership.


ASEAN Rotation: Indonesia Weakens, Singapore Gains, Thailand Stabilises

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>The PBV and PE valuations for TMB Thanachart, which are close to those of SCBx, seem stretched; TMB Thanachart’s return trends are well below those of SCBx</li>
<li>On the weighted metrics applied to our proprietary scorecard, TMB Thanachart is the new bottom marker in the scorecard among its Thai bank peers</li>
<li>Krung Thai was our core buy-rated Thai bank; we downgrade it to a hold, as its valuation discounts to its own history and its peer SCBx are no longer compelling</li>
</ul>


The PBV and PE valuations for TMB Thanachart, which are close to those of SCBx, seem stretched; TMB Thanachart’s return trends are well below those of SCBx
On the weighted metrics applied to our proprietary scorecard, TMB Thanachart is the new bottom marker in the scorecard among its Thai bank peers
Krung Thai was our core buy-rated Thai bank; we downgrade it to a hold, as its valuation discounts to its own history and its peer SCBx are no longer compelling


Thai Banks 2Q25; TMB Thanachart (SET:TTB) Re-Rating at Risk, Krung Thai (SET:KTB) Is Now a Hold

<ul>
<li>Krung Thai is our value pick among Thai banks, having solid post-provision profitability, close to double digit ROE with a healthy balance sheet, along with undemanding PBV and PE ratios</li>
<li>We maintain Kasikorn on the buy list, as its cost of risk was well contained in 1Q24, a key positive catalyst for its improving post-provision returns</li>
<li>Bank of Thailand is currently accepting applications for digital banking licenses until 19 September 2024; incumbent banks and domestic big corporates are likely to form the core of applicants</li>
</ul>


Krung Thai is our value pick among Thai banks, having solid post-provision profitability, close to double digit ROE with a healthy balance sheet, along with undemanding PBV and PE ratios
We maintain Kasikorn on the buy list, as its cost of risk was well contained in 1Q24, a key positive catalyst for its improving post-provision returns
Bank of Thailand is currently accepting applications for digital banking licenses until 19 September 2024; incumbent banks and domestic big corporates are likely to form the core of applicants


Thai Banks 1Q24 Screener; We Stick with Krung Thai for Best Value, Kasikorn for Positive Catalysts

Thailand

Kasikornbank Public Company Limited provides commercial banking services including personal and commercial banking, international trade, as well as investment banking services, to its customers throughout Thailand.  The Bank has foreign branches in Los Angeles, Hong Kong, Cayman Islands, and Shenzhen; and representative offices in Shanghai, Beijing, and Kunmin.

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Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)

KBANK: Non-NII And Cost Control Were Key Highlights This Quarter

KBANK reported 1Q26 core profit of Bt13.4bn (-3% YoY, +30% QoQ), beating our and market estimates by 24% and 18%, respectively.

Krungthai XSpring

KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (KBANK): 1Q26E Earnings Likely Pressured By NIM

Earnings face pressure from declining interest rates, but the rate cycle likely bottomed. KBANK’s proactive capital management—share buybacks and...

Krungthai XSpring

ASEAN Rotation: Indonesia Weakens, Singapore Gains, Thailand Stabilises

ASEAN positioning shifts as Indonesia loses ground and Malaysia stays weak. Singapore and Thailand attract inflows, while new leaders like ICTSI...

Steven Holden

Thai Banks 2Q25; TMB Thanachart (SET:TTB) Re-Rating at Risk, Krung Thai (SET:KTB) Is Now a Hold

Valuation concerns arise for TMB Thanachart, bottom rated in our Thai banks scorecard, as its returns lag behind those of SCBx; Krung Thai...

Victor Galliano

Thai Banks 1Q24 Screener; We Stick with Krung Thai for Best Value, Kasikorn for Positive Catalysts

Krung Thai is our preferred pick for its value for healthy return, solid capital ratio with Kasikornbank continuing to deliver on improving...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

KBANK: Non-NII And Cost Control Were Key Highlights This Quarter

KBANK reported 1Q26 core profit of Bt13.4bn (-3% YoY, +30% QoQ), beating our and market estimates by 24% and 18%, respectively.

Krungthai XSpring

KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (KBANK): 1Q26E Earnings Likely Pressured By NIM

Earnings face pressure from declining interest rates, but the rate cycle likely bottomed. KBANK’s proactive capital management—share buybacks and...

Krungthai XSpring

ASEAN Rotation: Indonesia Weakens, Singapore Gains, Thailand Stabilises

ASEAN positioning shifts as Indonesia loses ground and Malaysia stays weak. Singapore and Thailand attract inflows, while new leaders like ICTSI...

Steven Holden

Thai Banks 2Q25; TMB Thanachart (SET:TTB) Re-Rating at Risk, Krung Thai (SET:KTB) Is Now a Hold

​Valuation concerns arise for TMB Thanachart, bottom rated in our Thai banks scorecard, as its returns lag behind those of SCBx; Krung Thai...

Victor Galliano

Thai Banks 1Q24 Screener; We Stick with Krung Thai for Best Value, Kasikorn for Positive Catalysts

​Krung Thai is our preferred pick for its value for healthy return, solid capital ratio with Kasikornbank continuing to deliver on improving...

Victor Galliano

Valuation concerns arise for TMB Thanachart, bottom rated in our Thai banks scorecard, as its returns lag behind those of SCBx; Krung Thai...

Krung Thai is our preferred pick for its value for healthy return, solid capital ratio with Kasikornbank continuing to deliver on improving...