Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with resistance at 1,384/1,392 points (50-day EMA/75-day EMA) and the support at 1,374/1,365 points.</li><li>Overall, the index is still moving in the downchannel range of 1,330-1,396 points.</li><li>As for the short-term picture, it is currently being determined whether the index will move in an uptrend to test the resistance of the range at 1,395 points and 1,405/1,416 points, respectively, or move in a downtrend to test the support of the range, with the minor support at 1,365/1,356 points, respectively. </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with resistance at 1,384/1,392 points (50-day EMA/75-day EMA) and the support at 1,374/1,365 points.Overall, the index is still moving in the downchannel range of 1,330-1,396 points.As for the short-term picture, it is currently being determined whether the index will move in an uptrend to test the resistance of the range at 1,395 points and 1,405/1,416 points, respectively, or move in a downtrend to test the support of the range, with the minor support at 1,365/1,356 points, respectively. 

<ul><li>The SET fell in line with Asian bourses as a selling force continued to target large cap shares, causing the index to hit a 39-month low.</li><li>However, it subsequently improved slightly after the market shifted its focus to small to medium cap stocks, alongside expectations for an interest rate cut by the MPC due to the continued contraction of Thai inflation.</li><li>Despite the index experiencing a further decline, a doji signal emerged at the support area, mitigating the negative signal from the preceding black candlestick.</li></ul>

The SET fell in line with Asian bourses as a selling force continued to target large cap shares, causing the index to hit a 39-month low.However, it subsequently improved slightly after the market shifted its focus to small to medium cap stocks, alongside expectations for an interest rate cut by the MPC due to the continued contraction of Thai inflation.Despite the index experiencing a further decline, a doji signal emerged at the support area, mitigating the negative signal from the preceding black candlestick.

<ul><li>Greater clarity after the general election should ease worries over a possible coup and a delay in the formation of a coalition government, which we expect to consist of three parties, i.e., the Pheu Thai Party, the Palang Pracharath Party and the Bhumjaithai Party, in our base-case scenario; this would reduce the risk premium of the SET Index, pushing it up to our target of 1,607 points.</li><li>Historical data from the five most recent elections shows that the SET increased by an average of +3.47% in the month after they were held; and in the week before and after the general elections took place, the index rose by 1.87% and 3.81%, respectively.</li><li>The biggest gainers were the finance, property development and ICT sectors. We thus recommend speculating on SIRI, SC, SCB, KBANK, CPALL, INTUCH, ADVANC and MINT.</li></ul>

Greater clarity after the general election should ease worries over a possible coup and a delay in the formation of a coalition government, which we expect to consist of three parties, i.e., the Pheu Thai Party, the Palang Pracharath Party and the Bhumjaithai Party, in our base-case scenario; this would reduce the risk premium of the SET Index, pushing it up to our target of 1,607 points.Historical data from the five most recent elections shows that the SET increased by an average of +3.47% in the month after they were held; and in the week before and after the general elections took place, the index rose by 1.87% and 3.81%, respectively.The biggest gainers were the finance, property development and ICT sectors. We thus recommend speculating on SIRI, SC, SCB, KBANK, CPALL, INTUCH, ADVANC and MINT.

Special Report: Election Rally (History to Repeat Itself)

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Maintain BUY for KBANK with a new target price of Bt180.00. Given the macro challenges ahead, the bank prudently set aside provisions and concentrated on balance sheet clean-up.</li>
<li>Loan growth in 2022 will be lower than the guidance of 6% due to its planning to NPL outflow management to clean up the balance sheet. </li>
<li>Lending strategy was to focus on the small-sized ticket via digital lending as this would improve margin and future profitability going forward despite higher credit costs,</li>
</ul>


Maintain BUY for KBANK with a new target price of Bt180.00. Given the macro challenges ahead, the bank prudently set aside provisions and concentrated on balance sheet clean-up.
Loan growth in 2022 will be lower than the guidance of 6% due to its planning to NPL outflow management to clean up the balance sheet. 
Lending strategy was to focus on the small-sized ticket via digital lending as this would improve margin and future profitability going forward despite higher credit costs,


<ul>
<li>Maintain BUY for KBANK with a target price of Bt174.00. KBANK’s 2Q22 net profit came in at Bt10.8bn (+21% YoY, -4% QoQ). Going forward, the bank will focus on cleaning </li>
<li>Analyst meeting We are neutral after attending the analyst meeting on 21 July.  KBANK affirmed that it had adequate reserves to support future growth and withstand uncertainty.</li>
<li>There is potential for credit cost reduction in 2023 if Thai economic growth continues to improve going forward.</li>
</ul>


Maintain BUY for KBANK with a target price of Bt174.00. KBANK’s 2Q22 net profit came in at Bt10.8bn (+21% YoY, -4% QoQ). Going forward, the bank will focus on cleaning 
Analyst meeting We are neutral after attending the analyst meeting on 21 July.  KBANK affirmed that it had adequate reserves to support future growth and withstand uncertainty.
There is potential for credit cost reduction in 2023 if Thai economic growth continues to improve going forward.


Thailand

Kasikornbank Public Company Limited provides commercial banking services including personal and commercial banking, international trade, as well as investment banking services, to its customers throughout Thailand.  The Bank has foreign branches in Los Angeles, Hong Kong, Cayman Islands, and Shenzhen; and representative offices in Shanghai, Beijing, and Kunmin.

Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)

KTX Zoom - April 3, 2024

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with resistance at 1,384/1,392 points (50-day EMA/75-day EMA) and the support at 1,374...

Krungthai XSpring

Technical Analysis - MARCH 6, 2024

The SET fell in line with Asian bourses as a selling force continued to target large cap shares, causing the index to hit a 39-month low.

Krungthai XSpring

Special Report: Election Rally (History to Repeat Itself)

The biggest gainers were the finance, property development and ICT sectors. We thus recommend speculating on SIRI, SC, SCB, KBANK, CPALL, INTUCH,...

Krungthai XSpring

KBANK : Guarding Against Uncertainty

Maintain BUY for KBANK with a new target price of Bt180.00. Given the macro challenges ahead, the bank prudently set aside provisions and...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

KBANK : Asset Quality Remains a Priority

Maintain BUY for KBANK with a target price of Bt174.00. KBANK’s 2Q22 net profit came in at Bt10.8bn (+21% YoY, -4% QoQ). Going forward, the bank...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand