Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Krung Thai is our value pick among Thai banks, having solid post-provision profitability, close to double digit ROE with a healthy balance sheet, along with undemanding PBV and PE ratios</li>
<li>We maintain Kasikorn on the buy list, as its cost of risk was well contained in 1Q24, a key positive catalyst for its improving post-provision returns</li>
<li>Bank of Thailand is currently accepting applications for digital banking licenses until 19 September 2024; incumbent banks and domestic big corporates are likely to form the core of applicants</li>
</ul>


Krung Thai is our value pick among Thai banks, having solid post-provision profitability, close to double digit ROE with a healthy balance sheet, along with undemanding PBV and PE ratios
We maintain Kasikorn on the buy list, as its cost of risk was well contained in 1Q24, a key positive catalyst for its improving post-provision returns
Bank of Thailand is currently accepting applications for digital banking licenses until 19 September 2024; incumbent banks and domestic big corporates are likely to form the core of applicants


Thai Banks 1Q24 Screener; We Stick with Krung Thai for Best Value, Kasikorn for Positive Catalysts

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-bank-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:213:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB)</a> is trading very close to its historic highs versus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:293:1" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)</a> and keeps hitting a wall at that level.</li>
<li>The number of NVDRs issued on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-bank-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:213:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB)</a> has been rangebound while there has been a steady decrease for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:293:1" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)</a>. </li>
<li>At current level, the risk/reward looks favourable to a short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-bank-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:213:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB)</a> / long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:293:1" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)</a> position for the near to medium term.</li>
</ul>



Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB) is trading very close to its historic highs versus Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB) and keeps hitting a wall at that level.
The number of NVDRs issued on Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB) has been rangebound while there has been a steady decrease for Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB). 
At current level, the risk/reward looks favourable to a short Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB) / long Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB) position for the near to medium term.


ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toa-paint-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24235:1" rel="noopener">TOA Paint</a> is Thailand's leading decorative paints player with a 48% market share and a good track record but it has become caught up by association with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stark-corporation-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6337:1" rel="noopener">STARK Corporation</a>.</li>
<li>This looks like a guilt by association sell down given there are no visible business connections between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stark-corporation-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6337:1" rel="noopener">STARK</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toa-paint-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24235:1" rel="noopener">TOA Paint</a> but the eldest son of the family controls Stark.</li>
<li>The second son of the Patriarch is CEO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toa-paint-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24235:1" rel="noopener">TOA Paint</a>, which is otherwise enjoying a strong recovery in demand plus lower input costs. Valuations have declined to attractive levels. </li>
</ul>



TOA Paint is Thailand's leading decorative paints player with a 48% market share and a good track record but it has become caught up by association with STARK Corporation.
This looks like a guilt by association sell down given there are no visible business connections between STARK and TOA Paint but the eldest son of the family controls Stark.
The second son of the Patriarch is CEO of TOA Paint, which is otherwise enjoying a strong recovery in demand plus lower input costs. Valuations have declined to attractive levels. 


TOA Paint (Thailand) (TOA TB) - An Unfortunate Turn of Events

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>I-Tail Corporation, an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) in the wet pet food category, aims to list in Thailand in 4Q22. ITC is a subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-union-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:161:1" rel="noopener">Thai Union Group (TU TB)</a>. </li>
<li>As per ITC, it was the number two pet food company in Asia and in the top ten pet food companies globally. ITC expertise lies in fish-based wet pet food.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>


I-Tail Corporation, an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) in the wet pet food category, aims to list in Thailand in 4Q22. ITC is a subsidiary of Thai Union Group (TU TB). 
As per ITC, it was the number two pet food company in Asia and in the top ten pet food companies globally. ITC expertise lies in fish-based wet pet food.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


I-Tail Corporation Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Non-Uniform Growth

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

There is a BIG trade coming up starting next Monday. If you have exposure in Indonesia, it is worth thinking about. <hr>Back in January 2021, Bloomberg reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ)</a> - the country's largest lender by assets - was "exploring a plan to raise at least US$1bn through a rights issue."Almost a year ago in October 2020 BBRI signed a conditional deal to merge their Shariah-compliant unit with those of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)</a> and there had been talks (since Feb 2020?) with the government for BBRI to take over state-owned pawnshop lender PT Pegadaian and financing firm PT Permodalan Nasional Madani to provide affordable loans to SMEs. A deal for BBRI to take over those two firms was <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/bank-bri-ma-idUSL4N2KE2J5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">decided</a> in early February, and the need for a rights issue was set, though this required parliamentary approval and BBRI needed shareholder approval for the rights issue - which it announced in June and <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/adv/2021/07/23/bri-egms-approves-rights-issue-of-28-billion-shares.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">received</a> in July - under the mechanism of Capital Increase by Granting Securities Subscription Rights First (PMHMETD). <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> discussed the bank's initiatives and aspirations in the micro lending space in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-rakyat-indonesia-bbri-ij-both-micro-and-digital" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48613" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) - Both Micro and Digital</a> in February followed by a discussion of the rights issue itself in early July in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-rakyat-indonesia-bbri-ij-ultra-micro-and-digital-aspirations-in-place" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:54111" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) - Ultra-Micro and Digital Aspirations in Place</a>. Angus made a strong case for the bank in both insights and they are worth a read. The shares have basically had an overhang in place since early this year but in June when it became clear the rights issue would be Very Large, that overhang became more pronounced. <section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/228/528/original/Screenshot+2021-09-08+at+2.18.15+PM.png?1631081912" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="228528"></figure></section>The presentation made to get this past shareholders (never really in doubt as the govt owns 57%) announced the development of an "Ultra-Micro segment" to create an Ultra-Micro Ecosystem as the foundation for further growth, structured under Ultra Micro Holding owned by BRI, in the form of previous precedents of SOE development platforms such as Biofarma/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofarma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5319:1" rel="noopener">Indofarma (INAF IJ)</a> and Inalum's investment in Indonesian mining companies. <section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/228/527/original/Screenshot+2021-09-08+at+2.02.45+PM.png?1631080980" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="228527"></figure></section>The way this would be done is a rights offering to offer 230,128,553 rights for every 1,000,000,000 Existing Shares (roughly 0.23013 for 1), with the government contributing its ownership of Pegadaian and PNM in kind to fulfil its rights exercise consideration payment.That means the ~0.23 to 1 Rights Offering would be in effect for the other 43% of holders, which is a vast array of local and international institutions and local retail shareholders, with an Exercise Price of IDR 3400/share, and assuming 100% participation, that would garner IDR 41.15trln in proceeds, which, according to the roadshow <a href="https://www.ir-bri.com/misc/PS/2021/RI-Deal-Roadshow-Presentation-Final.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation</a> released in early September, "will be used for working capital for BRI in order to develop an ultra-micro ecosystem as well as micro and small businesses."The shares traded on the regular market went ex-rights today. Rights will be distributed on 10 September, traded from 13-22 September and exercised in the same period, with the last day for Excess Rights Subscription the 24 September and allotment of Excess Rights on 27 September.There is considerable opportunity here. Some short-term, some longer-term. But it is considerable because there is a fair bit of potential overhang here.I consider the opportunity set below the fold.

There is a BIG trade coming up starting next Monday. If you have exposure in Indonesia, it is worth thinking about. Back in January 2021, Bloomberg reported that Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ) - the country's largest lender by assets - was "exploring a plan to raise at least US$1bn through a rights issue."Almost a year ago in October 2020 BBRI signed a conditional deal to merge their Shariah-compliant unit with those of Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) and Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ) and there had been talks (since Feb 2020?) with the government for BBRI to take over state-owned pawnshop lender PT Pegadaian and financing firm PT Permodalan Nasional Madani to provide affordable loans to SMEs. A deal for BBRI to take over those two firms was decided in early February, and the need for a rights issue was set, though this required parliamentary approval and BBRI needed shareholder approval for the rights issue - which it announced in June and received in July - under the mechanism of Capital Increase by Granting Securities Subscription Rights First (PMHMETD). Angus Mackintosh discussed the bank's initiatives and aspirations in the micro lending space in Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) - Both Micro and Digital in February followed by a discussion of the rights issue itself in early July in Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) - Ultra-Micro and Digital Aspirations in Place. Angus made a strong case for the bank in both insights and they are worth a read. The shares have basically had an overhang in place since early this year but in June when it became clear the rights issue would be Very Large, that overhang became more pronounced. The presentation made to get this past shareholders (never really in doubt as the govt owns 57%) announced the development of an "Ultra-Micro segment" to create an Ultra-Micro Ecosystem as the foundation for further growth, structured under Ultra Micro Holding owned by BRI, in the form of previous precedents of SOE development platforms such as Biofarma/Indofarma (INAF IJ) and Inalum's investment in Indonesian mining companies. The way this would be done is a rights offering to offer 230,128,553 rights for every 1,000,000,000 Existing Shares (roughly 0.23013 for 1), with the government contributing its ownership of Pegadaian and PNM in kind to fulfil its rights exercise consideration payment.That means the ~0.23 to 1 Rights Offering would be in effect for the other 43% of holders, which is a vast array of local and international institutions and local retail shareholders, with an Exercise Price of IDR 3400/share, and assuming 100% participation, that would garner IDR 41.15trln in proceeds, which, according to the roadshow presentation released in early September, "will be used for working capital for BRI in order to develop an ultra-micro ecosystem as well as micro and small businesses."The shares traded on the regular market went ex-rights today. Rights will be distributed on 10 September, traded from 13-22 September and exercised in the same period, with the last day for Excess Rights Subscription the 24 September and allotment of Excess Rights on 27 September.There is considerable opportunity here. Some short-term, some longer-term. But it is considerable because there is a fair bit of potential overhang here.I consider the opportunity set below the fold. 

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI)'s Mega Rights Issue - Plenty of Opportunity Short-Term and Long-Term

Thailand

Kasikornbank Public Company Limited provides commercial banking services including personal and commercial banking, international trade, as well as investment banking services, to its customers throughout Thailand.  The Bank has foreign branches in Los Angeles, Hong Kong, Cayman Islands, and Shenzhen; and representative offices in Shanghai, Beijing, and Kunmin.

Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)

Thai Banks 1Q24 Screener; We Stick with Krung Thai for Best Value, Kasikorn for Positive Catalysts

Krung Thai is our preferred pick for its value for healthy return, solid capital ratio with Kasikornbank continuing to deliver on improving...

Victor Galliano

BBL/KBANK: Hitting a Wall

BBL has outperformed KBANK over the last year. The price ratio is now close to the highs and BBL has been selling off around there. Both stocks are...

Brian Freitas

TOA Paint (Thailand) (TOA TB) - An Unfortunate Turn of Events

TOA Paint is Thailand's leading decorative paints player, with a good track record but has been sold off due to its association with beleaguered...

Angus Mackintosh

I-Tail Corporation Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Non-Uniform Growth

I-Tail Corporation, an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) in the wet pet food category, aims to list in Thailand in 4Q22. ITC is a subsidiary of...

Sumeet Singh

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI)'s Mega Rights Issue - Plenty of Opportunity Short-Term and Long-Term

Bank Rakyat (BBRI) Indonesia's largest bank by assets, has a rights issue (stock went ex-rights today). The bank hopes to raise $2.8bn from its...

Travis Lundy

Thai Banks 1Q24 Screener; We Stick with Krung Thai for Best Value, Kasikorn for Positive Catalysts

​Krung Thai is our preferred pick for its value for healthy return, solid capital ratio with Kasikornbank continuing to deliver on improving...

Victor Galliano

BBL/KBANK: Hitting a Wall

BBL has outperformed KBANK over the last year. The price ratio is now close to the highs and BBL has been selling off around there. Both stocks are...

Brian Freitas

TOA Paint (Thailand) (TOA TB) - An Unfortunate Turn of Events

TOA Paint is Thailand's leading decorative paints player, with a good track record but has been sold off due to its association with beleaguered...

Angus Mackintosh

I-Tail Corporation Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Non-Uniform Growth

I-Tail Corporation, an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) in the wet pet food category, aims to list in Thailand in 4Q22. ITC is a subsidiary of...

Sumeet Singh

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI)'s Mega Rights Issue - Plenty of Opportunity Short-Term and Long-Term

Bank Rakyat (BBRI) Indonesia's largest bank by assets, has a rights issue (stock went ex-rights today). The bank hopes to raise $2.8bn from its...

Travis Lundy

Krung Thai is our preferred pick for its value for healthy return, solid capital ratio with Kasikornbank continuing to deliver on improving...