Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The changes at the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> September rebalance were announced on 4 September. The rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSCI was implemented on the same day.</li>
<li>The changes to the MVIS indices were announced on 8 September and will be implemented at the close on 15 September. The S&amp;P/ASX family will also rebalance on 15 September.</li>
<li>After a month and a half of big inflows to onshore China ETFs, there were small outflows from a lot of ETFs during the week.</li>
</ul>


The changes at the Nikkei 225 September rebalance were announced on 4 September. The rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI was implemented on the same day.
The changes to the MVIS indices were announced on 8 September and will be implemented at the close on 15 September. The S&amp;P/ASX family will also rebalance on 15 September.
After a month and a half of big inflows to onshore China ETFs, there were small outflows from a lot of ETFs during the week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, KOSDAQ150, Yuanta ETFs, MVA, MVW, SMH

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are a bunch of stocks that are constituents of the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices and could go private or merge prior to the next scheduled rebalance in December.</li>
<li>That will lead to ad hoc inclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and could also lead to ad hoc inclusions for the S&amp;P/ASX 50 and S&amp;P/ASX 100 indices.</li>
<li>There is a fair amount of short interest on some of the potential inclusions and short covering due to index inclusion could take the stocks higher.</li>
</ul>


There are a bunch of stocks that are constituents of the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices and could go private or merge prior to the next scheduled rebalance in December.
That will lead to ad hoc inclusions for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and could also lead to ad hoc inclusions for the S&amp;P/ASX 50 and S&amp;P/ASX 100 indices.
There is a fair amount of short interest on some of the potential inclusions and short covering due to index inclusion could take the stocks higher.


Mergers, Acquisitions and Potential S&P/ASX Index Ad Hoc Inclusions

<ul>
<li>We forecast 26 changes across the ASX50 Index, ASX100 Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and ASX300 Index at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>The review period ends tomorrow, so most changes are high probability. Though there are some changes that will be up to the discretion of the index committee.</li>
<li>There will be a lot of stock to trade on the changes to the ASX200 and indices higher up the hierarchy. But there will be a lot of pre-positioning too.</li>
</ul>


We forecast 26 changes across the ASX50 Index, ASX100 Index, S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and ASX300 Index at the September rebalance.
The review period ends tomorrow, so most changes are high probability. Though there are some changes that will be up to the discretion of the index committee.
There will be a lot of stock to trade on the changes to the ASX200 and indices higher up the hierarchy. But there will be a lot of pre-positioning too.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Have Outperformed

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Amman Mineral Internasional / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amman-mineral-internasional-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39838:1" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ)</a>, an Indonesian copper-gold producer, has launched an IDX IPO to raise US$870 million. Bookbuilding runs from 31 May to 16 June.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/amman-mineral-internasional-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:103755" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional IPO: The Investment Case</a></em></strong>. </li>
<li>In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that the IPO price range of IDR1,650-1,775 per share is attractive. We would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ), an Indonesian copper-gold producer, has launched an IDX IPO to raise US$870 million. Bookbuilding runs from 31 May to 16 June.
We previously discussed the IPO in Amman Mineral Internasional IPO: The Investment Case. 
In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that the IPO price range of IDR1,650-1,775 per share is attractive. We would participate in the IPO.


Amman Mineral Internasional IPO: Valuation Insights

<ul>
<li>The IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a>’s A$28.25 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> to be fair and reasonable as it is within its valuation range of A$27.37-30.47. </li>
<li>Copper prices and peers’ share prices have risen since the deal announcement. The IFA address perky copper prices by using reasonable long-term copper prices to value the assets.</li>
<li>This is done with no hint of a competing bid. At last close price and for the 2 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 0.9% and 6.1%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


The IE considers BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)’s A$28.25 offer for OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) to be fair and reasonable as it is within its valuation range of A$27.37-30.47. 
Copper prices and peers’ share prices have risen since the deal announcement. The IFA address perky copper prices by using reasonable long-term copper prices to value the assets.
This is done with no hint of a competing bid. At last close price and for the 2 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 0.9% and 6.1%, respectively.


OZ Minerals (OZL AU): Scheme Meeting on 13 April

Australia

29Metals Limited provides exploration and mining services. The Company explores and develops base and precious metals assets. 29Metals serves customers worldwide.

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29Metals (29M AU)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, KOSDAQ150, Yuanta ETFs, MVA, MVW, SMH

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Mergers, Acquisitions and Potential S&P/ASX Index Ad Hoc Inclusions

There are 5 companies that are members of the S&P/ASX indices and could be delisted prior to the next rebalance in December. That could mean ad hoc...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Have Outperformed

We forecast 26 changes across the ASX50, ASX100, ASX 200 and ASX300 indices at the September rebalance. There is big flow and impact on a lot of...

Brian Freitas

Amman Mineral Internasional IPO: Valuation Insights

Amman has launched an IDX IPO to raise US$870 million. Our analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive. We would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

OZ Minerals (OZL AU): Scheme Meeting on 13 April

Despite perky copper prices, this is a done deal with no hint of a competing bid. At the last close price and for the 2 May payment, the annualised...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, KOSDAQ150, Yuanta ETFs, MVA, MVW, SMH

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Mergers, Acquisitions and Potential S&P/ASX Index Ad Hoc Inclusions

There are 5 companies that are members of the S&P/ASX indices and could be delisted prior to the next rebalance in December. That could mean ad hoc...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Have Outperformed

We forecast 26 changes across the ASX50, ASX100, ASX 200 and ASX300 indices at the September rebalance. There is big flow and impact on a lot of...

Brian Freitas

Amman Mineral Internasional IPO: Valuation Insights

Amman has launched an IDX IPO to raise US$870 million. Our analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive. We would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

OZ Minerals (OZL AU): Scheme Meeting on 13 April

Despite perky copper prices, this is a done deal with no hint of a competing bid. At the last close price and for the 2 May payment, the annualised...

Arun George

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Have Outperformed