Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Lasertec has dropped more than 20% in the past week and a half, but is still selling at more than 60x EPS guidance for FY Jun-24.</li>
<li>Weak orders at ASML, disappointing guidance from TSMC and doubts about Intel's equipment purchases cast doubt on Lasertec's growth potential.</li>
<li>Between December 2021 and June 2022, Lasertec's share price dropped by more than 50%. Wait for Q3 results before reaching for a falling knife. </li>
</ul>


Lasertec has dropped more than 20% in the past week and a half, but is still selling at more than 60x EPS guidance for FY Jun-24.
Weak orders at ASML, disappointing guidance from TSMC and doubts about Intel's equipment purchases cast doubt on Lasertec's growth potential.
Between December 2021 and June 2022, Lasertec's share price dropped by more than 50%. Wait for Q3 results before reaching for a falling knife. 


Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>KLA had a rare miss. The guidance was a bit light for the inspection execution machine.</li><li>KLA rarely misses and is by far the best financially managed of the large-cap semicap companies.</li><li>KLA reports Q2 EPS $6.16 ex-items vs FactSet $5.91</li></ul>

KLA had a rare miss. The guidance was a bit light for the inspection execution machine.KLA rarely misses and is by far the best financially managed of the large-cap semicap companies.KLA reports Q2 EPS $6.16 ex-items vs FactSet $5.91

KLA & LaserTec, AMD, Hyperscaler Capex, SK Hynix, SWKS and QRVO, WOLF, MCHP

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Today after the close, there was word of an Accelerated Block Offering by two banks on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)</a>, selling ¥61+bn or US$425mm of shares.  </li>
<li>The Nikkei 225 hit a new 34-year high today, and this caused some tech stocks and high-weights to perform very well vs their peers. </li>
<li>This should cause the deal to get taken up easily. HOWEVER, it pays to know where the stock is. The register isn't what volume tells you it might be.</li>
</ul>


Today after the close, there was word of an Accelerated Block Offering by two banks on Lasertec Corp (6920 JP), selling ¥61+bn or US$425mm of shares.  
The Nikkei 225 hit a new 34-year high today, and this caused some tech stocks and high-weights to perform very well vs their peers. 
This should cause the deal to get taken up easily. HOWEVER, it pays to know where the stock is. The register isn't what volume tells you it might be.


Lasertec (6920) Accelerated Block Offering - ¥60bn Likely Easily Taken Up

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>MUFG Bank and Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking are looking to raise around US$425m from selling their respective stakes in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Given the strong momentum on the stock, combined with the wave of shareholders ending their cross-shareholdings in Japan, we would argue that the deal is somewhat expected.</li>
<li>Despite the remaining overhang on the stock, the deal would be easily digested by the market as well, representing just 0.14 days of the firm’s three month ADV.</li>
</ul>


MUFG Bank and Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking are looking to raise around US$425m from selling their respective stakes in Lasertec Corp (6920 JP).
Given the strong momentum on the stock, combined with the wave of shareholders ending their cross-shareholdings in Japan, we would argue that the deal is somewhat expected.
Despite the remaining overhang on the stock, the deal would be easily digested by the market as well, representing just 0.14 days of the firm’s three month ADV.


Lasertec Placement - Opportunistic Selldown Will Be Easily Digested by the Market

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Lasertec (6920) is a shoo-in for Nikkei 225 inclusion in September according to the quantitative analysis. The amount to buy is a small multiple of ADV, making the inclusion "unimpressive."</li>
<li>It is probably worth looking at the details of ownership, of volume, and of relationship to other stocks in the same general sector.</li>
<li>It is also worth thinking about flow channels (stock up or down changes flows) and forward fundamental calculations.</li>
</ul>


Lasertec (6920) is a shoo-in for Nikkei 225 inclusion in September according to the quantitative analysis. The amount to buy is a small multiple of ADV, making the inclusion "unimpressive."
It is probably worth looking at the details of ownership, of volume, and of relationship to other stocks in the same general sector.
It is also worth thinking about flow channels (stock up or down changes flows) and forward fundamental calculations.


Lasertec (6920) - The State of Things May Be Different Than You Think

Japan

Lasertec Corporation develops, designs, manufactures and markets photomask inspection systems to make semiconductor devices, confocal scanning laser microscopes and liquid crystal display (LCD) inspection systems.

Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)

Lasertec (6920 JP): Further to Fall

Lasertec is down more than 20% but still looks overvalued as weak orders at ASML, disappointing guidance at TSMC and uncertain equipment demand at...

Scott Foster

KLA & LaserTec, AMD, Hyperscaler Capex, SK Hynix, SWKS and QRVO, WOLF, MCHP

Another week of earnings, with KLA having a rare miss and the guidance being a bit light for the inspection execution machine.

Fabricated Knowledge

Lasertec (6920) Accelerated Block Offering - ¥60bn Likely Easily Taken Up

After the close today, a block offering in Lasertec was announced. It's 2% of shares from two bank cross-holders. 1.8mm shares so 0.2x ADV at a 3%...

Travis Lundy

Lasertec Placement - Opportunistic Selldown Will Be Easily Digested by the Market

MUFG Bank and Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking are looking to raise around US$425m from selling their respective stakes in Lasertec Corp (6920 JP).

Clarence Chu

Lasertec (6920) - The State of Things May Be Different Than You Think

All the earnings are out. Lasertec had previewed its June 2023 results in a 24 July guidance upgrade, and beat those. It also released June 2024...

Travis Lundy